Champions League last-16 draw analysed: Liverpool-PSG tops bill alongside Madrid derby and Bayern-Leverkusen

The Champions League’s new format may have given every team only two possible opponents in the round-of-16 draw but that has done little to dampen the excitement now that we know the eight ties.

Liverpool’s prize for topping the league-phase table is a humdinger of a showdown with French giants Paris Saint-Germain. Other high-profile ties include a Madrid derby, with Real and Atletico meeting over two legs, and a heavyweight clash between Germany’s leading lights Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.

On top of that, we also now know the potential quarter-final and semi-final pairings, allowing us to map out the route to the final in Munich on May 31.

According to our Champions League projections, powered by Opta data, Liverpool remain the favourites, but, as always, here come Real Madrid…

Gregg Evans, Tomas Hill Lopez-Menchero, Seb Stafford-Bloor, James McNicholas, Anantaajith Raghuraman and Mark Carey analyse the draw’s main talking points.

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Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool

The Premier League leaders are returning to Paris for the first time since losing to Real Madrid in the 2022 Champions League final.

This eye-catching match-up already looks like the blockbuster tie of the next round and will be one of Liverpool’s toughest tests of the season. Arne Slot’s side topped the league-phase table after winning seven of their eight games, but they have hardly benefited from that early qualification.

Not only have they landed one of the strongest opponents left in the competition — PSG beat fellow French side Brest 10-0 over two legs in the knockout-phase play-offs after landing arguably the toughest set of league-phase fixtures — Liverpool haven’t enjoyed a break from playing either. They drew 2-2 in the Premier League against Aston Villa on Wednesday, a fixture that had been rearranged to avoid a clash with Liverpool’s Carabao Cup final.

They have shown incredible resolve this season to get through a hectic period without any noticeable drop-off but are now facing another run of high-pressure outings.

In the league phase, they beat the Spanish (Real Madrid) and German (Bayer Leverkusen) champions, so will fancy their chances against the Ligue 1 leaders, PSG. Big European nights at Anfield are rarely easy for visiting sides but Luis Enrique’s team appear to be growing into the competition.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: PSG v Liverpool, March 5, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
• Second leg: Liverpool v PSG, March 11, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quater-final: Aston Villa
• Semi-final: Real Madrid
• Final: Barcelona

Gregg Evans

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

There was bound to be intrigue for Real Madrid, given their possible round-of-16 opponents were city rivals Atletico or a Bayer Leverkusen team managed by their former midfielder Xabi Alonso, who is regularly linked with the managerial position at his old side.

It will be another Madrid derby on the grandest of stages in the last 16 — though some might have wanted to see this game later in the competition. Atletico have become European mainstays under coach Diego Simeone but the memory of those two lost Champions League finals against Real in 2014 and 2016 still stings. That was part of a remarkable four-season run in which Real knocked Atletico out of the competition each time.

Real turned on the style in their play-off win against Manchester City, with Kylian Mbappe’s hat-trick showing how he has reached top form in his debut season as a galactico. Carlo Ancelotti appears to have found more balance among his star-studded front four, even if injuries have left them short in defence.

Atletico will still fancy their odds of finally beating the 15-time winners in their favourite competition. Spending almost €200million (£165m; $209m) in last summer’s transfer market has facilitated a title challenge in La Liga and there was little to separate the sides in a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu this month. Former Manchester City striker Julian Alvarez scored Atletico’s opener there and will again be a danger man.

Make it through, and a quarter-final against Arsenal or PSV awaits. There will be much more at stake than just city pride here.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: Real v Atletico, March 4, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
• Second leg: Atletico v Real, March 12, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quarter-final: Arsenal
• Semi-final: Liverpool
• Final: Barcelona

Tomas Hill Lopez-Menchero

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen 

This is not what Bayern would have wanted. They hold an eight-point lead over Leverkusen at the top of the Bundesliga but have not won any of the six games against last season’s German champions since Xabi Alonso took over as coach in the autumn of 2022.

Most recently, Bayern were dominated by Leverkusen in the BayArena and while Vincent Kompany’s side held on for an important 0-0 draw, they were led on a merry dance that night by Florian Wirtz, who is playing better than anyone in Germany.

That said, Leverkusen will not be eagerly anticipating these games, either. Bayern’s form is mediocre and they were fortunate to squeeze past Celtic in the play-off round — a bundled 94th-minute goal from Alphonso Davies was the difference — but Alonso’s players have rarely produced their very best in Europe.

If they play like they did against Atletico Madrid in the league phase or as naively as they did at Anfield in their 4-0 defeat against Liverpool, Bayern will be too much, too.

Jamal Musiala is, on form, every bit Wirtz’s equal. Davies should be fully fit again for the first leg, making a huge difference to Bayern’s left side, and Harry Kane, Joao Palhinha, Josip Stanisic and Hiroki Ito should be in a better physical condition than they are currently.

So, bad news for both teams, really, but good for everyone else — it should be a fascinating couple of games.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: Bayern v Leverkusen, March 5, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
• Second leg: Leverkusen v Bayern, March 11, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quarter-final: Inter
• Semi-final: Barcelona
• Final: Real Madrid

Seb Stafford-Bloor

PSV vs Arsenal

It’s a familiar opponent for Arsenal in the round of 16. They have faced PSV 10 times in competitive action and will now have done so in each of the last three seasons.

They’ve only been drawn together once in a knockout tie, which PSV won in 2007. Arsenal will be favourites against Peter Bosz’s team, who trail Ajax by two points at the top of the Dutch Eredivisie. Drawing PSV means no Feyenoord and no potential reunion with their incoming head coach Robin van Persie, a former Arsenal forward.

After that, Arsenal’s path to the final becomes much more difficult. They are on the loaded side of the draw, with one of the two Madrid teams in their potential quarter-final. If they made it to the semi-final, they would face Liverpool, PSG, Aston Villa or Club Brugge.

If Arsenal are to end their long wait for a Champions League trophy, they won’t be able to go about it the easy way.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: PSV v Arsenal, March 4, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
• Second leg: Arsenal v PSV, March 12, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quarter-final: Real Madrid
• Semi-final: Liverpool
• Final: Barcelona

James McNicholas

Benfica vs Barcelona

If either of these legs comes close to replicating Barcelona’s recent trip to the Estadio da Luz in January, then we are in for one of the best matches in the last 16.

A last-minute winner from Raphinha saw Barcelona break Benfica’s hearts to win 5-4 after trailing 4-3 going into stoppage time. It was a breathless encounter in the pouring Lisbon rain, featuring calamitous defending, controversial decisions, and moments of pure quality in 100 minutes (reflected in the match stats below).

Benfica left-back Alvaro Carreras stood out for his attacking performance in January’s clash, delivering a delicious cross for Vangelis Pavlidis for Benfica’s opener. What was equally notable was how Carreras, 21, kept fellow Spaniard Lamine Yamal quiet for long periods. (Look out for that battle when the pair meet in March.)

Barcelona’s attacking talent, with the firepower of Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Yamal, is unquestionable but Benfica exposed Hansi Flick’s high defensive line — and it is likely to be a key tactic again.

Benfica have played their part in some Champions League classics this season. As well as their nine-goal thriller against Barcelona, there was the late 3-2 comeback against Monaco in November before a dramatic 3-3 second-leg draw against Monaco allowed them to edge through 4-3 on aggregate in the play-off round.

Expect goals, drama, and two teams going toe-to-toe in both legs.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: Benfica v Barcelona, March 5, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
• Second leg: Barcelona v Benfica, March 11, 5.45pm GMT (12.45pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quarter-final: Borussia Dortmund
• Semi-final: Bayern Munich
• Final: Real Madrid

Mark Carey

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

Villa will have mixed feelings about this tie. With Unai Emery in the dugout and the talent they have following the additions of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, there should be optimism.

Yet, Bruges was the location of one of their flattest performances of the season. The 1-0 defeat is best remembered for Tyrone Mings’ brain fade as he picked up the ball from an Emiliano Martinez goal kick to gift the hosts a penalty that Hans Vanaken converted. Villa ended that night with one on target, struggling to break down a disciplined Club Brugge team.

For all their attacking options, Villa have struggled at the back, keeping one clean sheet in their last 16 games. Despite finishing the league phase in 24th, Club Brugge put five past Atalanta in the knockout round play-offs and will be brimming with confidence. Vanaken, striker Ferran Jutgla and wingers Chemsdine Talbi and Christos Tzolis all carry considerable threat up top.

Should Villa successfully navigate this tricky tie, the going only gets tougher in the quarter-finals, where they will meet the winners of Liverpool vs PSG.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: Club Brugge v Aston Villa, March 4, 5.45pm GMT (12:45pm ET)
• Second leg: Aston Villa v Club Brugge, March 12, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quater-final: Liverpool
• Semi-final: Real Madrid
• Final: Barcelona

Anantaajith Raghuraman

Feyenoord vs Inter

Amid the hype that will accompany many of the high-profile match-ups, Feyenoord-Inter has the potential to be an engaging tie.

The Eredivisie side are under caretaker management following Brian Priske’s sacking this month but, as The Athletic reported this week, are expected to hire former player Van Persie.

Van Persie started the two prior meetings between these clubs in the 2001-02 UEFA Cup (now Europa League) semi-finals. Feyenoord won the tie 3-2 on aggregate, with Van Persie assisting Pierre van Hooijdonk in the second leg in Rotterdam after his team beat Inter 1-0 at San Siro.

Managing against Simone Inzaghi’s tactically fluid team will pose a whole new challenge, though. Inter ended the league phase with the best defensive record, conceding just once in eight games, most notably shutting out Arsenal. Feyenoord were exciting in attack, racking up 18 goals, including three each against Bayern and Manchester City, despite finishing 19th. Something’s got to give.

Feyenoord made it into the round of 16 after defeating Milan 2-1 on aggregate in the knockout round, adding another layer of interest.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: Feyenoord v Inter, March 5, 5.45pm GMT (12.45pm ET)
• Second leg: Inter v Feyenoord, March 11, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quarter-final: Bayern Munich
• Semi-final: Barcelona
• Final: Real Madrid

Anantaajith Raghuraman

Borussia Dortmund vs Lille

This is as gentle a game as Dortmund could have hoped for.

Given their disastrous away form — two wins in the Bundesliga away from home all season — Dortmund’s trip to France will be perilous, particularly for a side short on the substance necessary to grind out results on big European nights.

Nevertheless, Niko Kovac has only been in position for a few weeks and another fortnight should give him the hours on the training pitches to toughen this team.

They are a shadow of their usual selves, but this Dortmund team still possess the attacking menace to be too much for Lille. Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Karim Adeyemi and Emre Can are hopelessly out of form, but Serhou Guirassy and Jamie Gittens are dangerous players who should pose a big challenge for Lille in the Dortmund leg, at least.

Confirmed fixture dates:

• First leg: Dortmund v Lille, March 4, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
• Second leg: Lille v Dortmund, March 12, 5.45pm GMT (12.45pm ET)

Their potential route to the final

• Quarter-final: Barcelona
• Semi-final: Bayern Munich
• Final: Real Madrid

Seb Stafford-Bloor

(Top photos: Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, left, and PSG’s Ousmane Dembele; Getty Images)

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