Could Kylian Mbappe match Cristiano Ronaldo at Real Madrid? Carlo Ancelotti thinks so

Kylian Mbappe had been waiting for a night like this.

He had already scored 25 goals in his debut season at Real Madrid before the visit of Manchester City in the Champions League — and had even sealed his first hat-trick for the club against struggling La Liga side Real Valladolid barely a month ago. But his ruthless treble to seal City’s early exit felt like an unmistakable statement of intent. At the Bernabeu, on a major European night, the next great galactico had arrived.

It is a tournament dear to record 15-time winners and current holders Madrid, in which club legends have made their name. Mbappe joined an exclusive list of six other players to have scored a Champions League hat-trick for Madrid, but you expect he will soon match Karim Benzema (four) and Cristiano Ronaldo (seven) as the only ones to hit multiple.

Mbappe has a long way to go before he matches club-record scorer Ronaldo in the iconic white shirt — 422 goals, 116 assists, and 14 major trophies, to be precise — but such was his frightening quality on Wednesday that talk of him reaching those heights one day has already begun.

So, is that talk justified?

Mbappe’s hat-trick was reminiscent of Ronaldo, given the brutal efficiency and speed with which he scored his goals.

For his opener, there was an explosion of pace to send Ruben Dias scrambling to the floor and a perfect lob to leave Ederson stranded. He showed rapid footwork to send Josko Gvardiol flying for his second, before a step-over and a precise finish from the edge of the box — on his weaker foot — for his third.

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Surrounded by some of Europe’s toughest defenders, it still felt as if there was little anyone could do.

“He has the quality to reach his (Ronaldo’s) numbers,” coach Carlo Ancelotti said in his post-match press conference, a man who would know better than most, “but he has to work, because Cristiano set the bar very high.

“He is so excited to play here, and he can reach Cristiano’s level.”

Mbappe still has plenty of football left at 26 and there are many paths his Madrid career could take. Ronaldo clocked up almost 38,000 minutes, or 630 hours, of game time for the club, spreading his goals across nine seasons and six separate competitions, with a freakishly good injury record seeing him sidelined for fewer than 50 games across that time.

But the (very) early signs are that Mbappe can compete with the Portugal forward’s consistency in front of goal if he remains injury-free and keeps scoring at the current rate.

Simply comparing the goalscoring trajectories of both players in European football suggests Mbappe is actually on track to surpass Ronaldo’s tally, maintaining an incredible rate of 0.91 goals per game across his time with Monaco, Paris Saint-Germain and Madrid.

Look at those numbers more closely and it is striking just how young Mbappe was when he started to hit his form of around a goal-a-game, the rate reserved for the world’s most prolific forwards.

His breakout season for Monaco, aged 17, saw him score 24 goals and provide seven assists in around 25.6 full games across all competitions, while he has gone on to hit a minimum of 20 goals in every campaign since.

It took Ronaldo slightly longer to hit the relentless scoring form for which he became renowned, racking up 39 goals in his fifth full season at Manchester United.

Those numbers took off at Madrid, where he scored comfortably more than a goal a game in seven consecutive seasons between the ages of 24 and 30 — breaking the 50-goal mark in all competitions on six separate occasions, an incredible landmark that has been just out of Mbappe’s reach.

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While the France forward has yet to hit Ronaldo’s ludicrous heights at his peak, his early consistency gives him a platform to challenge those figures, provided he can adapt his game and continue scoring deep into his thirties.

Like most lethal No 9s, Mbappe’s dependable skill in striking the ball cleanly allows him to routinely create something from very little, translating to significant overperformance in front of goal.

As the chart below shows, each of the last seven domestic seasons has seen Mbappe score at a more regular rate than the quality of chances falling his way would suggest the average player should, netting 192 goals from an expected tally (xG) of 166.5.

As his relationships with Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham continue to grow — with the prospect of prolific chance-creator Trent Alexander-Arnold lining up at right-back for Madrid next summer — the numbers suggest improved service to Mbappe will lead to more goals.

In a roundabout way, one of the few things that could potentially stop Mbappe from smashing those individual records is precisely the calibre of player around him.

Ronaldo was the undisputed goalscorer at Madrid, with his productivity nurtured by Benzema, Gareth Bale and Gonzalo Higuain during his nine years in the Spanish capital — and he was rarely overshadowed. He scored more than 40 per cent of Madrid’s La Liga goals in two separate seasons; it is hard to see Mbappe doing the same given the other stars he is sharing the limelight with.

But recent performances have shown the attacking quartet can gel nicely, with Ancelotti giving them the freedom to rotate in games.

“They all want to be in the XI,” the coach said in a November press conference. “Kylian has never asked me for a position on the pitch, they don’t have a fixed position and can change depending on most situations.”

Mbappe frequently drifted over to his favoured left flank in the second leg against City this week, swapping with Vinicius Jr, but their touch maps show that both had ample opportunities to effect the game close to the opposition penalty area. It provided further encouraging signs that Madrid’s two headline forwards can comfortably coexist.

“I don’t care about being the leading scorer,” Mbappe told reporters in the Bernabeu mixed zone after his City hat-trick. “I have scored many goals in my career; if with these goals we win titles I will sign with my blood. If I can score 50, all the better, but all I want is to win titles.”

With that attitude, and in this terrifying form, the goals, titles, and individual records will come tumbling. Even Ronaldo might have to watch out.

(Top photos: Getty Images)