Manchester City vs Liverpool: Will rivalry return? Where will it be won? Plus our predictions

It is the fixture that has dominated the Premier League title race conversation for much of the last seven years.

Manchester City and Liverpool have finished in the top two in three of the last six seasons, with Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp’s teams often divided by the finest margins as they squabbled for the top trophies.

But not this season. As Liverpool have pulled clear at the top of the table, City have suffered a shocking slump, careering out of the title race and exiting the Champions League before the last-16 stage.

We asked Sam Lee, our Manchester City correspondent, and Liverpool writer Andy Jones to analyse the mood at each club and their expectations before the two teams meet again at the Etihad.

How do people at City feel about Liverpool’s surge?

Lee: The two clubs are hardly friends off the pitch but given City have enough problems to deal with, coupled with the fact that there is possibly an even stronger boardroom rivalry with Arsenal, they are not losing too much sleep about Liverpool potentially winning the title.

That is the nature of the business — there are no genuine challengers that City would be happy to see win the title, so it is easier to focus on getting their own ship in order. For supporters, after the battles with Arsenal this season, plenty of fans are siding with Liverpool in a ‘lesser of two evils’ situation. That would have been unthinkable even a year ago, but Jurgen Klopp’s departure seems to have softened feelings somewhat.

How do people at Liverpool feel about City’s slump?

Jones: The relationship between the two clubs has been one of tension rather than friendship during their recent battles. Enjoyment might be too strong, but Liverpool are not feeling too sorry for a rival that has pipped them to two league titles suffering a difficult campaign.

Liverpool have been there themselves. City share similarities to the disappointing 2022-23 Liverpool side that finished fifth. A team that grew old together, going one season too far, and looking a shadow of themselves at their peak.

Crucially, Liverpool have put themselves in a position to capitalise on Manchester City’s down year. There is an acknowledgement that Guardiola and his players will be back next year, but not having them breathing down their neck represents a welcome change — that’s why taking advantage is crucial.

Will this rivalry ever return to the heights of the start of the decade?

Lee: Maybe, although Klopp’s departure has taken some of the spice out of it. City’s decline means there is much less riding on these matches. If City return to their old selves next season, we are likely to see something like ‘the good old days’, because that was all about perhaps the two best teams in the world battling it out for trophies.

Jones: Will we ever see another 98-97 points title race, as we did in 2018-19? Probably not. The rivalry had already been building, largely through the Champions League before that, too. There were rifts off the pitch from boardroom level down to supporters, while on the field, it was the two best teams in Europe going head to head, led by the game’s two leading managers.

Both teams have or are undergoing a squad overhaul and moving on from the players involved in those titanic battles. The dynamic has shifted in the dugout too following Klopp’s exit. Can Arne Slot become Guardiola’s next adversary? If both sides continue to challenge for titles and trophies in the years to come then the rivalry will return —although it might have a different feel.

If Haaland is fit, how do you see his battle with Van Dijk?

Lee: Guardiola said that Erling Haaland faces a fitness test on the knee injury that ruled him out against Madrid, but if he starts, he can certainly give Virgil van Dijk a tough time. The defender has generally done well against Haaland but City now have Omar Marmoush and with two players keen to make runs in behind, it will give the Liverpool defence more to think about. That can help Haaland.

Jones: This debate transports me back to that moment at Anfield last season when Haaland and Van Dijk were one on one. The entire ground was transfixed as the former ran at the latter. Two world-class players going head to head. Van Dijk just about won that duel.

The striker scored in this fixture last season, but Liverpool — and Van Dijk — have generally played him quite well since Haaland arrived in 2022. He barely got a kick in the reverse fixture and if he plays but is hindered by the injury that kept him out of the Real Madrid match, you would expect Van Dijk to come out on top. A lot will depend on what service his midfield provide.

Virgil van Dijk’s battles with Erling Haaland are box office (Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

What do City have to do to win the game?

Lee: Avoid mistakes, keep up the energy for 90 minutes, keep the ball, win it back… all the things they have not really been doing. Guardiola says the issues stem from rushing in possession, which spreads out the team and exposes their lack of mobility in midfield. That, he says, exacerbates their lack of physicality.

Other than that, City look at their most threatening when teams push up, allowing them to go long over the top of the defence. If Liverpool do that, Ederson can pick out Haaland and Marmoush and things could get interesting.

What do Liverpool have to do to win the game?

Jones: This is not the ‘great’ City of recent years. Yes, they deserve respect, but not too much.

Goalscoring has not been a problem, but defensively Liverpool have become leaky and are conceding avoidable goals more frequently. Three league clean sheets in the 13 games since these sides last met is far from ideal. The key is playing the game on their terms and not allowing City to dictate the tempo — a trap Arsenal nearly fell into up to Haaland’s equaliser last month.

Mistakes must be avoided and winning the midfield battle, where City have been exposed most due to their lack of mobility, is a must. Then it is about being clinical and smart during transition moments. The first goal feels key.

What’s your prediction for Sunday?

Lee: Probably a Liverpool victory although they are not at their best. The positivity from the 4-0 win against Newcastle United quickly evaporated in Madrid. City have their best chance if they can play to Haaland, but they have many well-documented weaknesses.

Pep Guardiola had a night to forget in Madrid on Wednesday (David Ramos/Getty Images)

Jones: Welcome back to pessimistic predictions with Andy Jones! Liverpool should win — they are a better team and should expose City’s weaknesses. The problem is Slot’s free-scoring side have also become easier to score against, as mentioned earlier. That is pointing me towards another high-scoring draw: 2-2.

How much closer will these two teams be next season?

Lee: City should get back to much more like their old selves next season. We always expect Liverpool to be up there challenging but that was not always the case under Klopp — as much as they were arguably the best team around at times, they did also drop off. Whatever happens this season it will be a challenge for Slot to keep them at a high level year after year.

Jones: It’s still difficult to know what Liverpool team we will be getting on the first day of next season because of the uncertainty surrounding the contract situations of Van Dijk, Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold. They will be expecting to challenge, although that will be a tough test for Slot if there is a significant turnover of players.

City will not be enduring another season like this. The rebuild has begun already and is sure to continue. Guardiola is probably already brain-storming the next tactical innovation to change football… again.

(Top photo: Carl Recine/Getty Images)

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