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Hello! The Premier League — it might be done and dusted, at both ends.
On the way:
🏁 Is the PL title race over?
🧌 Messi trolled in MLS
❌ Tottenham; don’t call them that
📐 Neymar’s olimpico magic
Job Done? Liverpool pass stress test at Man City as title win seems inevitable
“Nowhere near.”
That was Mikel Arteta, fizzing after Arsenal’s defeat to West Ham United on Saturday. He was talking about the standard of their performance in isolation — well short of trophy-winning levels — but he might as well have been talking about the Premier League table. Because close at hand, Arsenal are not.
(Sky Sports)
In a scenario where it’s them or Liverpool, an 11-point advantage with 11 games to go (12 in Arsenal’s case) says the title will go to Anfield. The Athletic’s James McNicholas thinks Arsenal have rolled a seven. Arteta wasn’t so far from conceding as much himself. We’ve not reached March and it feels like the tension has gone — for most of the division.
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Liverpool are too unflappable. Too good, frankly. Their rivalry with Manchester City has defined the past decade, but they’ve never felt so little stress at the Etihad as they did in a 2-0 win yesterday. Mohamed Salah is getting better. He’s up to 40 Premier League goal contributions this season and with 16 assists already, Art de Roche is asking if Salah will beat Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne’s joint record of 20. I’m going with ‘yes’.
The remaining intrigue surrounds the scramble for Champions League qualification, the last significant live race in the table. The Premier League might get five slots in the 2025-26 season, depending on country coefficients (a complicated matrix we explained last year). The gap from Manchester City in fourth to Aston Villa in eighth is two points, so the fight is on. Which is more than can be said about the bottom of the pile.
Relegation: Rinse and repeat?
Most footballing nations see the concept of promotion and relegation as a virtue. TAFC recently referenced a plan to bring pro-rel to the United States, one of the few countries that has resisted it.
But it’s less of a virtue when it descends into a predictable cycle and here’s the rub: last year, for the first time since 1998, all three promoted clubs went straight back down from the Premier League. This season, it’s happening again. Southampton are long gone. Ipswich Town sit five points from safety, with only three wins. Leicester City are a car crash. Don’t hold your breath.
The problem runs much deeper, though. In the 2023-24 season, the Championship’s final top four featured all three relegated sides. The second tier’s current top three all dropped into the league in the last two seasons. It’s a switcheroo in which two dynamics are obvious: promoted teams floundering as they go up, but the squads and salary bills held by relegated clubs proving too powerful for the competition below.
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Tonight, it’s Sheffield United vs Leeds United in the Championship, second against first. Sheffield United took 13 years to get back into the top flight in 2019. Leeds took 16 to do likewise in 2020. Yet here they are once more, seeking access to the land of milk and honey. Stuart James has written this morning about “the futility of promotion”. It’s quite hard to tell him he’s wrong.
- Newcastle United are firmly in the hunt for a Champions League spot. The two Lewises, Miley and Hall, underpinned a big 4-3 win over Nottingham Forest on Saturday. The Totally Football Show — on Apple and Spotify — has been waxing lyrical about the pair.
News round-up
MLS notebook: Messi trolled and helps rescue draw, Latte Lath shows his worth
Lionel Messi, as any fool can see, is Major League Soccer’s golden boy. Messi in the States means more eyes on the States. Messi in MLS means more commercial reservoirs for MLS to drain.
(MLS/Apple TV)
The fixation on him has created an undercurrent of resentment about it all being too much about him — but really, what can he do? The first round of the new MLS season over the weekend had Messi in the thick of it, with two assists (the second in the 100th minute) rescuing a 2-2 draw for Inter Miami at home to New York City FC.
Not only that, he was randomly trolled by NYCFC’s Mitja Ilenic, who marked the opening goal by mimicking Cristiano Ronaldo’s “siuuuu” celebration (below) and picking sides in that age-old debate. Never let it be said that MLS is alone in devoting attention to its reigning MVP. Or that Miami are less dependent on Messi either.
(Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
A few other takeaways from weekend one:
- Atlanta United broke the league’s transfer record by signing Emmanuel Latte Lath from Middlesbrough. Two goals on his MLS debut against Montreal was a tidy start. Look out for Atlanta. Between Latte Lath, Mateusz Klich and Miguel Almiron, they’ve recruited intelligently.
- Plenty of people think FC Cincinnati will bang. They might have lost Luciano Acosta, but they spent big on Kevin Denkey and Evander. Saturday’s 1-0 victory over last season’s beaten MLS Cup finalists, New York Red Bulls, was a promising marker.
- Whereas MLS Cup holders LA Galaxy need to pick up and go again. They lost 2-0 last night to San Diego FC, who are properly up and running as the latest expansion franchise.
Around TAFC: Tottenham asking not to be called Tottenham
- Funny headline of the weekend: Tottenham don’t want to be called Tottenham. Or, at least, they want to be known as either Tottenham Hotspur or Spurs. It’s a marketing thing.
- Burnley’s defensive record in the Championship is insane: no league goals conceded since December 21 (12 matches back-to-back). There’s a wager in play that, at this rate, could see shareholder JJ Watt resume his NFL career. Danny Taylor explains.
- Russia have been shut out from world football since 2022 and won’t feature in the 2026 World Cup. If an end is brought to the war between the Russians and Ukraine, will any of that change?
- I learn something every time I watch Tifo Football’s videos. Meet Sebastian Abreu, the striker who appeared for more clubs than any other player.
- Most clicked in Friday’s TAFC: our live Champions League draw feed. Some tasty ties await.
Quiz answer
The eight players who have scored the most goals in Champions League knockout matches from 2015-16 onwards were: Cristiano Ronaldo (28), Kylian Mbappe (24), Karim Benzema (22), Robert Lewandowski (20), Messi (16), Erling Haaland (16), Sadio Mane (15) and Kevin De Bruyne (13). With the exception of Mane, easy-peasy.
Catch a match
(Selected games, ET/UK time)
Championship: Sheffield United vs Leeds United, 3pm/8pm — CBS, Amazon Prime, Paramount+/Sky Sports.
La Liga: Sevilla vs Mallorca, 3pm/8pm — ESPN+, Fubo/Premier Sports.
Serie A: Roma vs Monza, 2.45pm/7.45pm — Paramount+/OneFootball.
Turkish Super Lig: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce, 12pm/5pm — beIN Sports, Fubo (U.S. only).
And finally…
TNT Sports
The one goal Messi can’t score, or hasn’t thus far in his career? The ‘olimpico’ — a shot direct from a corner kick.
Neymar, in contrast, has the routine licked. He was playing for Santos in Brazil last night when opposing fans of Inter de Limeira jeered him as he went to take a corner. Neymar cupped his ear and encouraged them to boo more loudly. Then he banged a dead-eye delivery in off the far post. Class is permanent, so is karma.
(Top photo: PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images)
