Last season, the Premier League failed in its efforts to grab an additional qualifying place for the Champions League, but 12 months on the situation is looking much more promising.
As in 2023-24, two of UEFA’s domestic leagues will be rewarded with an extra slot. Last season Germany’s Bundesliga and Italy’s Serie A came top of the seasonal coefficient rankings, allowing Borussia Dortmund and Bologna access to the continent’s most prestigious competition in 2024-25. This season, it seems almost certain that the Premier League will grab one of those spots, meaning the division’s top five teams will all qualify for next season’s edition.
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According to Opta’s prediction model, the Premier League now has a 99.4 per cent chance of finishing as one of UEFA’s two best-performing associations this season, so it’s surely time to ban age-old talk of clubs looking for a ‘top-four finish’ and expand it to five. (There is even an — admittedly obscure — route to having seven Premier League sides in next season’s Champions League, comprised of the top five, a team (surely Aston Villa) as defending European champions who finished outside the Premier League’s top five, plus one of Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur qualifying as Europa League winners).
This is all good news for anyone worried that there might be a lack of jeopardy in the closing weeks of the season, what with Liverpool seemingly cruising to the title and the promoted sides looking like they might fill the division’s bottom three for the second campaign in a row.
Instead Premier League observers should focus on what promises to be a feverish battle to finish in the top five, with every club down to Spurs in 12th deemed by Opta’s supercomputer to have at least some chance of finishing in the division’s upper quarter.
With a full slate of Premier League fixtures to come this midweek, we asked our club writers why their side might qualify, why they might not, how important reaching the Champions League would be, and the key games they face in the run-in.
Liverpool
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
Let’s be honest, there’s no ‘if’ here. It’s effectively already done and dusted. Liverpool are 20 points clear of fourth-placed Manchester City as they close in on their 20th top-flight title. With just one defeat in 27 league matches, Arne Slot’s side have been a model of consistency throughout. They are the highest scorers in the Premier League and boast the second-best defensive record.
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If they don’t it’s because…
They have spectacularly imploded during the run-in. Injuries would have to cut deep and the wheels would have to come off as the pressure cranks up. It’s fanciful. Not happening.
Liverpool have won the Champions League/European Cup six times, more than any other English side (Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
Competing among Europe’s elite is huge for Liverpool both in terms of prestige and finance. The six-times champions of Europe stand to earn at least €100million (£84m, $104m) from the Champions League this season having progressed to the last 16 with seven wins out of eight in the league phase.
James Pearce
Arsenal
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
Arsenal have grown into one of the most consistent teams in the Premier League. Like last season, they have conceded the fewest goals in the league (23). Despite injuries to key players in forward areas, they have also found ways to earn points whether they play well or not.
If they don’t it’s because…
Injuries and suspensions have defined Arsenal’s season. They have been without vital players in defence, midfield and attack for months at a time, which seems to have caught up with them. In reality, however, that should not impact Champions League qualification.
Arsenal reached the Champions League final in 2006 but lost 2-1 against Barcelona (Odd Anderson/AFP via Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
It’s major. Their growth in recent years has been about returning to Europe’s top table, and from a sporting perspective, they need to keep qualifying. That is a tangible measure of improvement, which is a must. Financially, being in the Champions League also generates more revenue for the club.
Two games that could decide it…
Arsenal’s next game being against Nottingham Forest is timely. They were given a lifeline after both Forest and Manchester City lost on Sunday, and Wednesday’s match could increase the gap between second and third to nine points. Other than that, Newcastle United at home on May 18 could decide where others finish, Newcastle included.
Art de Roché
Nottingham Forest
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
They have written the fairytale ending that this remarkable season deserves. And, less emotively, because of the impressive recruitment of the last few windows — because of the capture of players like Murillo, Nikola Milenkovic, Elliot Anderson, Anthony Elanga and Chris Wood — and because of the sense of unity and togetherness that Nuno Espirito Santo has instilled within the Forest squad.
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If they don’t it’s because…
This is entirely new territory for Forest. It is three decades since they last challenged for European qualification. They spent the previous two seasons fighting desperately against relegation. Nuno secured consecutive seventh-place finishes with Wolverhampton Wanderers and his experience of that will be vital.
How important would qualifying be?
Financially, qualifying for the Champions League would be massive. But, more than the physical rewards, missing out on something that was so unexpected, but that is now within touching distance, would be emotionally draining.
Nottingham Forest last competed in Europe’s top competition in 1980 (Peter Robinson – PA Images via Getty Images)
Two games that could decide it…
The next two Premier League games, at home to Arsenal and Manchester City. Forest do not need to prove that they deserve to mix in this company — after 26 games, they are third on merit. But they could send out a huge message if they can beat the teams currently sitting immediately above and below them. Nuno has a club, a team and an entire city daring to dream. The outcome of the next two games will have an influence on his ability to turn those dreams into reality.
Paul Taylor
Manchester City
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
They will have found a way to battle through the limitations in the midfield and seemingly never-ending injury crisis in defence. The wingers will become a more consistent goal threat, Nico Gonzalez will help tie things together in the middle and key defenders will manage to stay fit.
If they don’t it’s because…
Key defenders do not stay fit, midfielders like Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Mateo Kovacic, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden continue to struggle and the wingers blow cold rather than hot.
How important would qualifying be?
Taking part in this summer’s Club World Cup will help offset the money that City missed out on thanks to their early Champions League elimination, but the cost of not getting back into the competition at all would have a major impact, given total prize money for Europe’s top competition is just over £2billion, compared to around £468m in the Europa League.
City exited the Champions League in Madrid last week – will they be back in 2025-26? (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Two games that could decide it…
Of their remaining fixtures, only Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion and Bournemouth are within four points of them in the table, so those are the games that could have the biggest direct impact, but frankly City have become so unpredictable even the easiest-looking matches will surely turn out to be vital.
Sam Lee
Newcastle United
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
They have a good team with a smattering of elite players, most notably Alexander Isak, who has just reached 50 Premier League goals for Newcastle and has the beating of any opponent on his day. Eddie Howe’s side have won 13 of their last 16 games in all competitions, a better record than anybody else in the division.
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If they don’t it’s because…
This story of consistency is not quite what it seems. They have lost three of their last five league games and conceded 14 goals and their wild 4-3 victory over Nottingham Forest encapsulated their best and worst qualities. After not strengthening their first XI for three transfer windows, Newcastle lack competition and depth.
Newcastle enjoyed their foray into the Champions League in 2023-24 (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
Europe was the target at the start of the season, but the Champions League is where Isak, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon aspire to be. Might one or more agitate to leave if they fail to get there? In the era of the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR), the extra revenue would be vital for a club which has felt hemmed in and so, too, would the prestige.
Two games that could decide it…
Difficult to be specific given Newcastle’s tendency to rouse themselves for the big occasions and vice versa, but two of their final three fixtures are against Chelsea and Arsenal.
Chris Waugh
Bournemouth
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
They have players coming back from injury at the right time. Evanilson, Luis Sinisterra, Alex Scott and Marcus Tavernier have returned to Bournemouth’s matchday squad in recent weeks. Additionally, Bournemouth have a fantastic record against their competitors. They have defeated Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Newcastle this season while drawing with Chelsea.
If they don’t it’s because…
Bournemouth have a difficult run-in. They travel to Brighton, Tottenham, Arsenal and City before the end of the season, with a visit from Villa to come in May too. Bournemouth’s away record (22 points from 13 matches) is the joint fourth-best so far, but it will be truly tested in the final months of the season.
(Lewis Storey/Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
Bournemouth have never finished higher than ninth in the Premier League. They were in the Championship as recently as in the 2021-22 season and in League One in 2012-13. Getting to the Champions League would be the culmination of a meteoric rise.
Two games that could decide it…
Bournemouth take on Manchester United and Arsenal in back-to-back weeks (April 26 and May 3), with both teams looking for revenge. If they can glean four out of six points from those games — if they have got through the preceding potentially tricky run of fixtures (West Ham United away, Fulham at home and Crystal Palace away) relatively unscathed — that should see them on track for a top-five finish.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
Chelsea
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
Cole Palmer rediscovers his mojo. When the England international is at his best, so are Chelsea. Palmer can turn defeats into draws and draws into wins. He has struggled lately and it has had an impact on their results.
If they don’t it’s because…
Chelsea cannot stop conceding goals. It has been a problem all season and they have dropped 13 points from winning positions since Boxing Day. There are too many individual errors and Maresca’s side are simply too easy to score against.
Chelsea have won the Champions League twice, in 2012 and 2021 (Manu Fernandez/AFP via Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
There is the obvious financial incentive, not just from the competition itself but also their bargaining position over a new front-of-shirt sponsor, something that they have yet to resolve this season. From a prestige point of view, Chelsea can ill afford to go a third season without being in it, plus it will surely help keep Palmer happy at the club.
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Two games that could decide it…
After collecting just nine points from their last 10 games, it almost feels like the next two at home to strugglers Southampton and Leicester are vital just to restore some confidence. But assuming Chelsea can stay in contention until the end, the last two away matches at Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will clearly have a major role to play in where Chelsea end up.
Simon Johnson
Aston Villa
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
Villa go on an outstanding end-of-season run, something that has not been forthcoming so far. They have only won back-to-back games four times this season (two of those coming in a three-game winning streak from late August to September) so need to show a level of consistency to qualify for the Champions League akin to the remarkable form of last season. Alternatively, they could simply choose to win this season’s Champions League and finish in mid-table.
If they don’t it’s because…
The ongoing fragilities that haven’t quite been resolved. Villa have kept three clean sheets in 27 matches and are far less clinical going forward, which has emphasised defensive shortcomings. Injuries, an unsettled backline and general defensive discipline has been lacking and has led to a struggle to find consistency.
Villa have performed admirably in their first campaign back in Europe’s leading competition (Michael Steele/Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
Hugely. Among the top 20 clubs who generate the most revenue globally, Villa have a staggering wage-to-turnover ratio of 96 per cent, by far the highest of any team. Unlocking Champions League riches is paramount, allowing Villa to spend in the summer while navigating PSR and bringing in greater revenue which allows them to keep paying high salaries.
Two games that could decide it…
Surely it’s back-to-back home games against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle in April. Villa have a tough run-in, playing Tottenham, Manchester City and Bournemouth, but if they can go into those matches having won those two home games, Unai Emery’s side will surely have a great opportunity to maintain their presence in the Champions League.
Jacob Tanswell
Brighton & Hove Albion
If they qualify for the Champions League it’s because…
The firepower across the front line produces the wins they will need to finish the season the way they started it, with six victories, four draws and two defeats from a sequence of games which included facing seven of last season’s top eight.
If they don’t it’s because…
Injuries continue to undermine Fabian Hurzeler’s desire to field a more settled side to build relationships in every department of the team. The German has not been able to name an unchanged line-up in his time at the club.
Brighton would be keen on a return to Europe in any form (Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images)
How important would qualifying be?
Qualifying for Europe for only the second time is the ambition, whether that be the Champions League, the Europa League (they achieved that by finishing sixth under Roberto De Zerbi in 2022-23) or the Conference League. The Champions League would be utopia. Finishing high enough to reach Europe’s second- or third-tier competitions, or by winning the FA Cup, are surely more realistic targets in Hurzeler’s first season.
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Two games that could decide it…
The next four league games are against other teams in the top-five race (Bournemouth, Fulham, Manchester City, Aston Villa). If they are still in the hunt after that, the last two home games in May could be crucial, against Newcastle (Sunday’s FA Cup fifth-round hosts) and Liverpool — who could be on the beach if the Premier League title has been secured.
Andy Naylor
Who else could qualify?
Other than the nine sides above, the Opta supercomputer gives three other sides a (slim) chance of finishing in the top five. Fulham have a 0.5 per cent probability of finishing fourth and 0.8 per cent of finishing fifth, Brentford are on 0.2 and 0.8 respectively while Spurs are on 0.1 and 0.3. That’s all based on simulating the remaining fixtures 10,000 times but can we really rule out in-form Crystal Palace and Everton making late surges up the table?
What is clear is that a fifth Champions League spot offers a realistic to semi-realistic prize to more than half the Premier League — and should ramp up the excitement in the final few weeks of the season.
(Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)
