After Arsenal’s 1-0 defeat against West Ham, it was club captain Martin Odegaard who faced the cameras.
“The performance today wasn’t good enough and, yeah, really disappointed,” he told reporters shortly after full time. “We are missing players, but we have to focus on the players that are available and we have more than enough quality to do more than what we did today.”
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Odegaard will not exclude himself from that assessment. The 26-year-old’s form has come under considerable scrutiny. In the absence of so many key players, supporters are looking to their anointed leader for more.
When Odegaard returned to the Arsenal starting XI after a six-week absence in November, Arteta marvelled at his capacity to hit the ground running. “Just physically and mentally to be connected the way he was with the team is unbelievable,” said the Arsenal manager after Odegaard’s first start back against Chelsea.
Unbelievable, yes, and perhaps too good to be true.
Odegaard’s impact in those first few weeks was profound and instantaneous. It may feel some time ago now, but between Odegaard’s return against Chelsea on November 10 and Bukayo Saka’s injury against Crystal Palace on December 21, Arsenal were in free-scoring form, racking up 28 goals in 10 games across all competitions. In Odegaard’s first four fixtures back, he produced a goal or assist in every game.
But he has struggled to maintain those high standards. Twelve Premier League games since then have yielded just one more goal and a single assist. A tally of two goals and three assists from 18 Premier League appearances falls well below the standard Odegaard has set for himself since arriving in north London in 2021.
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“He came back in such a strong way and performing at a very, very high level,” Arteta said in his pre-Nottingham Forest press conference.
“And then just sustaining that over a period of time, like we ask the players to do constantly — especially (for) the creative players — is very difficult.”
Arteta suggests Odegaard’s efficiency may have dropped (Eric Verhoeven/Soccrates/Getty Images)
Arteta denied the decline in Odegaard’s output is down to any change in role or tactical instruction. “His numbers are very similar in terms of what we expect and the expected goals and areas that he’s hitting,” the Arsenal manager explained.
“Maybe the efficiency has dropped a little. There were some penalties there as well that he scored in the past, that’s another factor. But we want to increase the levels of the scoring records of every individual and Martin is one of them.”
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A closer look at the numbers suggests there has been a tailing off over the past few seasons — particularly in terms of Odegaard’s goal threat.
Arsenal always felt Odegaard’s performance of 2022-23, in which he scored 15 goals from 45 appearances, would be difficult to sustain. Nevertheless, it’s clear the current campaign is falling below expectation. Arsenal are carving out fewer opportunities for Odegaard to shoot — and he is converting fewer of those opportunities.
Martin Odegaard’s goals drop-off
Goals per 90 | Open play xG per 90 | Total shots per 90 | Big chances per 90 | Shot conversion percentage | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022-23 |
0.43 |
0.28 |
2.66 |
0.26 |
25 |
2023-24 |
0.23 |
0.17 |
2.24 |
0.23 |
17.02 |
2024-25 |
0.12 |
0.15 |
1.72 |
0.37 |
11.76 |
So what’s going on?
It is possible Odegaard’s injury has had some hangover effect. The false dawn of his initial return has given way to a more difficult period — and, with other attacking players dropping like flies, he has had to play a huge amount of football. Arsenal have not been able to manage his minutes — their reliance on Odegaard is too great.
Those injuries have also robbed Odegaard of his two closest on-field collaborators. Arsenal have been lopsided in recent seasons, with so much of their play being generated by the right-flank hub of Odegaard, Saka and Ben White.
Asked about White’s return to the squad on Tuesday, Arteta admitted: “We haven’t played the right unit at all this season with him, Bukayo and Martin as well, a unit that has played so much football together.
“So it’s great to have him back, more options, his energy, the way he’s around the team, the way he generates, he certainly has been missed.”
White’s return from injury should help Odegaard (Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Odegaard will have missed White as much as anyone.
Having been mainstays of the team over the last two seasons, Odegaard, White and Saka have started just four games together all season. For a player whose style is based on combination play and intuitive understanding, that has been difficult.
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Without Saka to support him, the supply line to Odegaard is slashed. Who creates for the creator?
In the summer, Arsenal allowed Fabio Vieira and Emile Smith Rowe to leave the club, replacing them with a more utilitarian midfielder in Mikel Merino. Ethan Nwaneri was viewed as the potential understudy to Odegaard, but Saka’s injury means the 17-year-old has been pressed into action on the wing.
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That leaves a significant creative burden on Arsenal’s captain. The assembly of the squad, in conjunction with this spate of injuries, means when it comes to goals and creativity from midfield, he has become a single point of failure. There is no one else.
Odegaard’s importance was evident in his eight weeks on the sidelines. Arsenal dropped points in four of their seven league games during that spell. His return against Chelsea marked the start of a 15-game unbeaten run — their longest spell without losing under Arteta.
Martin Odegaard’s creative numbers
Assists per 90 | Expected assists per 90 | Chances created | Big chances created per 90 | Passes into box per 90 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022-23 |
0.2 |
0.24 |
2.18 |
0.4 |
6.67 |
2023-24 |
0.29 |
0.32 |
2.96 |
0.49 |
7.55 |
2024-25 |
0.18 |
0.26 |
2.33 |
0.43 |
7.85 |
Odegaard’s creative numbers remain relatively consistent. Even as Arsenal toiled against West Ham, he was credited with creating four open-play chances — the highest in the Premier League that weekend, joint with Manchester City’s Savinho.
But it’s difficult to conceive of a creative midfielder who would look their best without a recognised centre-forward to play in front of them. Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli are the Arsenal players most inclined to make runs in behind the defence. Without them, Odegaard’s capacity to make match-winning contributions to games is dramatically reduced.
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It has been an intense period in 26-year-old Odegaard’s life. He has dealt with a serious injury, an isolating period of rehab — and, perhaps most significantly of all, starting a family. Combine that with an ever-increasing responsibility at Arsenal, and it is easy to see how he might be feeling the strain.
But at Arsenal, they have no doubt about his capacity to cope.
Odegaard has had a busy few months, with injury, rehab and starting a family (David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
“His attitude, how willing he is, how he takes responsibility and how he wants to drive the team is remarkable,” says Arteta. “That’s what I demand the players — that we need to continue to make things happen and Martin certainly is trying more than anybody else.”
Odegaard and Arsenal are in parallel positions: after several years of progress, they have hit a plateau — or perhaps even taken a backward step. But this is a player with the intelligence, the talent and the desire to work through these issues. Support is on the way too, with Martinelli and then Saka expected to return over the coming weeks.
In the meantime, Arsenal must find a way to unlock their attack. Given the lack of alternatives at their disposal, their captain may hold the key. Arsenal need him now more than ever.
If not Odegaard, then who else?
(Top photo: IAN KINGTON/IKIMAGES/AFP via Getty Images)