By Sam McGuire
Simply put, the Liverpool No. 8 had been terribly unlucky in front of goal.
Some efforts have narrowly missed the bottom corner. Defenders had thrown themselves in front of goal bound shots. Keepers had pulled off good saves to thwart the former RB Leipzig man.
And after Arne Slot had said he expected more from the attacking midfielder earlier in the campaign, a return of one Premier League goal before the turn of the year wasn’t doing anything to change the narrative that he was underperforming.
Ultimately, he’s judged on output. Despite the fact he’s not really in the team for that. Jürgen Klopp even used him as a facilitator for the Reds after the Hungary skipper moved to Anfield in the summer of 2023.
He was there to do a lot of the running for Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah. It nullified him in possession and, eventually, it resulted in him picking up injuries. Well, the same injury twice. He missed two months of action early on in 2024 with two separate hamstring issues. From what I can see, it’s the first time in his career that he’s suffered a muscle injury.
It was a matter of when and not if this would happen.
He wasn’t properly conditioned for that role or that position. He went from playing as an attacker for RB Leipzig to being a box-to-box midfielder, appearing in almost every single game.
It has to be gradual. Szobozlai had a good fitness base, but the demands placed on him as an attacker in the Bundesliga are completely different to the demands placed on him as a shuttler in midfield for Liverpool.
At some point, something is going to give. With him, it was his hamstring.
After returning from injury, he struggled. He made just five starts in the final 12 Premier League games of the season and failed to score a goal in the English top-flight post-January.
This isn’t exactly Klopp’s fault, but his handling of him didn’t help.
This season, we’re seeing a better version of the Hungary skipper. The narratives had remained the same though.
He doesn’t score enough. He doesn’t create enough. He isn’t as impactful in the final third as people would’ve liked.
Yet when he’s not in the team, you notice, don’t you?
The headline figures haven’t necessarily backed up his performances either.
After a flurry of goals recently, Szoboszlai has five for the season in the Premier League. He’s also has three assists to his name.
These numbers have been boosted lately with four goals and an assist in his last eight appearances.
The underlying numbers have painted a nicer picture. And the underlying numbers tell more of the story.
For example, this term, in the Premier League, he has an Expected Goals total of 6.6. He also has an Expected Assists total of 4.16.
Immediately, you can see he’s underperforming both metrics. The latter is tied to the finishing of his teammates though. If he’s creating good, high-quality chances, it isn’t his fault they aren’t being converted. As we know, finishing can be fickle.
This is why I’m comparing him to Darwin Núñez.
He’s getting chances, good ones at that, he just hadn’t been able to finish. You can argue he should be doing better with his opportunities but there’s also an element of bad luck too.
For example, he’s had four shots inside the six-yard box this season and none of them have resulted in a goal. The one against Brentford was blocked, as was the one against Nottingham Forest. The efforts against Wolves and Spurs, with a combined xG of 1.4, were both saved.
When you take a deeper look at the numbers, you realise how good he’s actually been. He has an xG90 of 0.31 from his 2.54 shots per 90. Only Salah, Diogo Jota, Luis Díaz, Núñez and Cody Gakpo have a higher xG90 this term. But, remarkably, there’s barely anything separating Gakpo (0.38), Diaz (0.38) and Szobozlai.
He’s posting the numbers of an attacker. But whereas Gakpo and Diaz have eight and nine goals respectively, Szoboszlai has just five.
He’s also got an xA90 average of 0.20, giving him a combined xG90 Involvement of 0.51. As a fourth goal threat, which he is in this team, you’d absolutely take that, wouldn’t you?
Compare that to last season and you really get to see how much he’s improved as a goal threat.
He was averaging 2.56 shots per 90 last season but had an xG90 of just 0.16. Low value efforts on a regular basis. His xA90 was identical to this term (0.21) but his xG90 Involvement was just 0.37. It might seem minimal but over a 38-game campaign that is a difference of almost seven expected goal involvements.
The return of two goals in his last two appearances has been on the cards for quite some time. It could be a prolific end to the campaign for the Liverpool No. 8.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.
