The bookmakers’ favourites to win this season’s Europa League are Tottenham Hotspur, who travel to the Netherlands to take on AZ Alkmaar at the AFAS Stadion in the first leg of their last-16 tie on Thursday evening.
While Spurs secured fourth spot in the 36-team League Phase standings, AZ finished in 19th place and required a 6-3 aggregate victory over Galatasaray in the playoff round to reach the knockout rounds.
Match preview
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Since the beginning of December, Tottenham have played 23 times across all competitions and have lost 11 of those, most recently suffering a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City in the Premier League a week last Wednesday.
Spurs are in danger of failing to secure a top-10 finish in the Premier League, let alone a European spot for next season as they sit 13th in the table and nine points behind 10th-placed Aston Villa, 10 points behind the top seven and 14 points behind the top four with 11 games remaining.
Having already been knocked out of both domestic cups, head coach Ange Postecoglou is now under pressure to deliver Europa League glory to Spurs supporters after stating at the start of this season that he “always win things in my second year”.
Postecoglou believes there is still “an opportunity” to salvage Tottenham’s season both in the Premier League and Europa League. The Lilywhites ended the League Phase with back-to-back wins over Hoffenheim (3-2) and Elfsborg (3-0) and they have already beaten Thursday’s opponents AZ this season, winning 1-0 at home on matchday three.
Spurs have won seven of their last 11 games in major European competition against Dutch opposition (D2 L2), including their most recent away at Ajax (3-2) in May 2019 en route to the Champions League final. However, they have only come out on top in three of their last 18 away legs in major European knockout ties (D5 L10).
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Since drawing 2-2 with Galatasaray in the second leg of their Europa League playoff tie, a week after claiming a statement 4-1 home victory in the first leg, AZ Alkmaar have had mixed success on the domestic front.
After edging past Fortuna Sittard by a 1-0 scoreline in the Eredivisie, De Kaasboeren secured their spot in the KNVB Beker final after beating Hercules 4-3 on penalties following an entertaining 2-2 draw in 120 minutes. However, AZ fell to a 3-1 league loss at Heerenveen last weekend.
Maarten Martens‘s side subsequently missed the chance to climb back into third place – the Europa League qualification spot in the Eredivisie table – and they now sit sixth with 10 games remaining to reduce the three-point gap to the top three.
AZ travel to title hopefuls Ajax in their next Eredivisie match, but they can now focus fully on their two-legged Europa League tie against Spurs, with no domestic fixture scheduled over the weekend, and will endeavour to reach the quarter-finals for the first time since the 2013-14 campaign.
De Kaasboeren, who have won only two of their previous 19 meetings with English clubs, have scored 19 Europa League goals this season, with only three teams netting more; they have not scored more than 20 goals in a major European season since 2006-07 (26).
Team News
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AZ Alkmaar will be without key attacking midfielder Sven Mijnans as he is nursing an Achilles tendon injury. Jayden Addai (ankle) is also sidelined, while Ruben van Bommel and Mexx Meerdink are both doubtful.
Zico Buurmeester, who scored against Heerenveen last weekend, is set to continue in the number 10 role in the absence of Mijnans, operating just in front of centre-midfield duo Jordy Clasie – formerly of Southampton – and Peer Koopmeiners.
Former Tottenham striker Troy Parrott is AZ’s top scorer this season with 17 goals in all competitions, including four in the Europa League, and the 23-year-old Irishman is expected to lead the line for the hosts.
As for Spurs, Dejan Kulusevski has been pictured wearing a protective boot on his left foot and is reportedly set for at least a week on the sidelines. Radu Dragusin (ACL) is a long-term absentee, while Thursday’s game is set to come too soon for both Dominic Solanke (knee) and Richarlison (calf).
Antonin Kinsky, Fraser Forster, Timo Werner and Sergio Reguilon are all ineligible after being left out of Spurs’ Europa League squad, while Postecoglou has said that Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero (both thigh) have an “outside chance” of returning against AZ as they have both taken part in training. Ben Davies (load management) will also be assessed ahead of kickoff.
January signings Kevin Danso and Mathys Tel are both expected to make their first European appearances for Tottenham, the latter will likely be joined in attack by Son Heung-min, who has scored seven major European knockout goals for Spurs; only Dimitar Berbatov (12) has scored more for the club this century.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Owusu-Oduro; Maikuma, Goes, Penetra, De Wit; Clasie, Koopmeiners; Poku, Buurmeester, Lahdo; Parrott
Tottenham Hotspur possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Spence, Gray, Danso, Udogie; Maddison, Bissouma, Sarr; Johnson, Tel, Son
We say: AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur
Winning the Europa League is now Tottenham’s priority and Postecoglou can ill-afford to watch his side – one still possessing quality despite their lengthy injury list – produce a below-par performance if they wish to secure an important first-leg advantage.
AZ Alkmaar will be no pushovers for the North Londoners and are yet to lose at home in Europe this season (W4 D1), but we think that this run may come to an end and Spurs find a way to secure a slender win in the Netherlands.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
