Friday evening’s Matchday 25 opener of the Primeira Liga sets the stage for a crucial relegation scrap as Estrela Amadora host Gil Vicente, with both sides battling to gain an edge in the fight for survival.
Only goal difference separates the two teams in the standings, with both tied on 22 points — the home side sitting 16th in the playoff spot, while the visitors hover just above the drop.
Match preview
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Not the most explosive of spells, yet an upturn in form nonetheless, Estrela extended their unbeaten streak to three with a 1-1 stalemate at Moreirense last weekend.
Having snapped a six-match winless run of two draws and four defeats by securing their first league victory on the road this season at Boavista, followed by a goalless home draw against Santa Clara, the Tricolours looked poised for a second win in three games as they took the lead at Parque Moreira in the 55th minute through Kikas.
However, their hopes were dashed in the 78th minute when Sidnei Tavares struck to ensure both teams shared the spoils.
With that result, Estrela have now picked up more points (four) from their last two games on the road than they managed in their previous 10, where they had just three.
While the Tricolours have experienced an improvement in their away performances, their fortunes on home soil have taken a downturn, failing to secure victory in any of their last four matches at Estadio Jose Gomes, with just one draw in that stretch — a stark contrast to their four wins in the previous five.
However, Jose Faria‘s side can take confidence from their history in this matchup, having secured a 1-0 win in their only meeting at the ground.
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Gil, on the other hand, will be hoping a change in leadership sparks a revival as they aim to secure their first-ever league double over Estrela, having claimed a 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture last October.
Cesar Peixoto, appointed on March 2, just a week after his dismissal from Moreirense, takes charge of his first match with the immediate task of halting a six-game losing streak and setting the tone for a turnaround.
Gilistas’s most recent setback came in the Taca de Portugal quarter-finals, where a 1-0 defeat against Sporting Lisbon ended their cup campaign.
Five of those losses have been in the Primeira Liga, with their latest top-flight outing ending in a 1-0 reverse at Casa Pia on February 22, dragging the Roosters closer to the danger zone.
Gil’s troubles stem largely from their lack of cutting edge in the final third, having drawn blanks in five of their last six matches across all competitions, including each of the most recent four.
Their away form is equally concerning, as Peixoto’s men sit at the foot of the league’s away table, having collected just six points from 12 outings while netting only seven times in those fixtures – the joint-second fewest tally in the division.
Team News
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Estrela remain without long-term absentee Tiago Mamede, while Amine Oudrhiri could sit out a second consecutive match after being forced off in the 55th minute against Santa Clara.
In Oudrhiri’s absence, experienced midfielder Alan Ruiz is likely to retain his place in the centre of the park for a second straight outing, while Guilherme Montoia could continue at left wing-back, with Nilton Varela‘s availability still in question after missing the previous game.
Faria may well stick with the same XI that started last time out, keeping Kikas as the focal point in attack, flanked by Rodrigo Pinho and Fabio Ronaldo.
With a new manager at the helm, Gil are expected to set up differently this time, as Peixoto will likely opt for his preferred four-man defence, similar to the one he deployed at Moreirense.
However, that backline will be without right-back Ze Carlos, who is suspended following his dismissal in the Taca de Portugal defeat last time out, paving the way for Jonathan Mutombo to step into the role.
On the injury front, Sphephelo Sithole remains sidelined as he recovers from a ligament issue, while Pablo is a doubt after missing the last five matches.
Estrela Amadora possible starting lineup:
Andorinha; Ferro, Lopes, Lima; Travassos, Moreira, Ruiz, Montoia; Ronaldo, Kikas, Pinho
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Andrew; Cruz, Fernandes, Josue Sa, Mutombo; Fujimoto, Castillo, Marques; Bermejo, C Eduardo, Correia
We say: Estrela Amadora 1-0 Gil Vicente
Given both sides’ struggles in the final third — Estrela managing just two goals in their last four outings and Gil Vicente drawing blank in as many matches — this is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair.
However, with momentum on the hosts’ side and their success in this fixture on home soil, they are expected to grind out a win, though it may not come easily, especially with the visitors looking to show early signs of improvement under their new manager.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
