The scramble to qualify for the Champions League is set to take another twist on Saturday in the Bundesliga when Freiburg welcome RB Leipzig to Europa-Park Stadion.
Freiburg are fifth with 40 points but are just one point behind fourth-placed Mainz 05, who occupy the final Champions League qualification spot, while Leipzig are in sixth place with 38 points but lost 2-1 against Mainz on March 1.
Match preview
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The hosts were held to a 0-0 stalemate in the league by Augsburg on March 2 and were fortunate to have left with a point considering their opponents produced more xG (1.48) and more big chances (three), while they also struck the post from close range in the 93rd minute.
Though his side rode their luck at times last time out, head coach Julian Schuster will be delighted that his team have now kept five consecutive clean sheets, the same number they had managed in their first 22 games of the season.
However, Breisgau-Brasilianer’s record of 34 goals scored in the top flight will concern fans given they rank as the worst offensive team in the top 10, and their goal difference of minus two is the only negative figure in that group.
Schuster’s side have collected 13 points from the last 15 on offer in the Bundesliga, and only league leaders Bayern Munich can match that total.
Bayern are also one of the two teams that have been able to beat Freiburg at home this campaign, with the club winning nine of their 12 outings at Europa-Park Stadion.
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Meanwhile, the visitors were beaten by Mainz despite taking the lead through Xavi Simons in the first minute, conceding two of the three shots on target they faced.
Die Roten Bullen have failed to find the back of the net in three of their past seven games, and they rank as the division’s joint third-worst offensive side in the top 10 having scored just 39 goals.
Boss Marco Rose has faced scrutiny for his side’s struggles this campaign – they were the first team eliminated from the Champions League this term – and failure to qualify for next season’s Champions League would be the first time they finished outside the top four since 2017-18.
Leipzig beat Freiburg 3-1 in the reverse fixture on October 26, extending their unbeaten streak against their hosts to 12 games, and it was also their seventh consecutive victory against them when including penalty shootouts.
The visitors come into the clash having won just three times in their last 11 games, drawing five and losing three in that period.
Rose’s side have also only triumphed in one of their past 11 away matches, succumbing to defeat on seven occasions.
Team News
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Freiburg’s list of absentees is relatively small, though they are set to be without midfielder Daniel-Kofi Kyereh until late March, so perhaps Maximilian Eggestein and Patrick Osterhage will appear in a double pivot.
Centre-back Manuel Gulde is scheduled to make his comeback from his back injury by the middle of this month, while Max Rosenfelder is only likely to miss a few more days of action.
Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart have started together in the heart of defence for five consecutive matches, and they are certain to do so again on Saturday.
As for Leipzig, defender Benjamin Henrichs has been ruled out, as have midfielders Christoph Baumgartner, Forzan Assan Ouedraogo and Xaver Schlager.
Rose will likely deploy a double pivot consisting of Amadou Haidara and Arthur Vermeeren, and the duo may be stationed in front of centre-backs Willi Orban, Castello Lukeba and Lukas Klostermann.
Elsewhere, fans can expect striker Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda to be supported by Simons considering Antonio Nusa is injured.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Sildillia, Ginter, Lienhart, Gunter; Eggestein, Osterhage; Doan, Rohl, Grifo; Holer
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Orban, Castello; Baku, Haidara, Vermeeren, Raum; Xavi; Sesko, Openda
We say: Freiburg 2-0 RB Leipzig
Freiburg will be confident of victory considering they have been excellent defensively in the past weeks.
Additionally, Leipzig’s struggles on the road should make the hosts clear favourites for all three points, especially as the home team boast a strong record at Europa-Park Stadion.
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