Liverpool have not enjoyed any more luck than previous Premier League title winners have, Reds expert David Lynch has argued.
The Merseysiders returned to Champions League action on Wednesday night, beating Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the first leg of their round of 16 clash, though they did rely on Alisson Becker to prevent the French side from scoring on multiple occasions.
Boss Arne Slot admitted that his team were lucky to escape Parc des Princes without conceding, and the Reds’ performance has fuelled accusations that they have been fortunate this season, and that their 13-point advantage in the Premier League over second-placed Arsenal is not a fair reflection of the sides’ displays in 2024-25.
However, Lynch disagreed with the notion that Liverpool have experienced any more fortune than other sides that have won the title, telling Sports Mole: “There’s always a certain element of luck in title races. You can deny that. You’ve had a week where Liverpool have played Manchester City and Newcastle, and they’ve both had two of the best centre-forwards in world football [missing].
“There’s a little bit of good fortune there, but the idea that Liverpool’s entire title win is based on luck is pushing it. You’ve got to look back to where Arsenal were before the injuries set in, and they were already between seven and nine points behind, and that number had gone up and down over that period.
“Where Liverpool supporters should embrace this narrative around luck is I don’t think they’ve had that much in recent years – they’ve been quite unlucky. To miss out on two Premier League titles when you’ve had 90-plus point totals, and then a couple of Champions League finals, one where Mo Salah goes off injured in the first 20 minutes.”
Arsenal were already trailing Liverpool by six points despite having played a game more that the Reds prior to Bukayo Saka being forced off due to an injury against Crystal Palace in December 2024.
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Have Liverpool been fortunate with injuries?
Liverpool have played 28 games in the Premier League this season, and it should be noted that nine players have featured in at least 26 top-flight matches.
The Reds lost 1,383 days in the 2023-24 Premier League season due to injury totalling 156 games missed, whereas only 68 league games have been missed because of injury this term.
Lynch explained that Liverpool’s and Arsenal’s injury fortunes this season are no mere coincidence, and insisted that the Reds’ revamped medical team should be credited for their work when he told Sports Mole: “I would also push back on the idea that the injuries are completely tied to luck. I was quite critical of Liverpool last season for the injury record they had – I think that’s something you can control with the type of football you play.
“It doesn’t mean Arsenal are suddenly really poor in the way that they look after their players, having had a couple of years of great availability. It’s really gone badly recently – luck has played a part there – but I don’t think it’s all completely landed in [Liverpool’s] lap or anything like that.
“If Liverpool have been a little bit lucky – you’ve got to acknowledge there’s a small part of luck there – then they’ve absolutely earned it, but I don’t think that it’s been the decisive factor. Regardless of whether Arsenal have got those injuries or not, the gap had already got too big, and Liverpool have been too consistent since then to have given Arsenal any hope of catching them.”
Ruben Peeters replaced Andreas Kornmayer as Liverpool’s lead physical performance coach, and he has been praised for his changes behind the scenes, including introducing new tailored individual gym programmes, early-morning yoga and hydrotherapy sessions.
Why the Premier League is still competitive
Another claim that has been levelled against Liverpool is that the Premier League has been less competitive this season than it was previously, and that the Reds have simply taken advantage of the poor quality around them.
However, though it looks like Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town will be relegated, just six points separate 10th-placed Aston Villa from third-placed Nottingham Forest.
Speaking to Sports Mole, Lynch was keen to emphasise that Premier League has arguably never had as much quality spread throughout the division, saying: “If Liverpool are getting fewer points to win it, that surely means the Premier League itself is competitive because more teams are capable of taking points off the sides near the top. It doesn’t stack up that argument.
“The five, six, seven, eight teams who are competing for Champions League football next season, there’s an unbelievable amount of quality. Go to pick out Brighton – Baleba, Mitoma, absolutely brilliant players. Bournemouth – Kerkez, Semenyo. Fantastic players. West Ham are near the relegation zone, they’ve got Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta – this is unbelievable quality. Fulham – Antonee Robinson, Iwobi’s playing out of his skin.
“There’s an unbelievable amount of quality in the league, and it’s the reason that a point away from home has become a good result again after a few years of it definitely not being. There is so much quality in that middle part of the league, and you can go away to a Fulham, or a Brighton or a Bournemouth, and think that a point is not the worst result in the world.”
Despite the high level of the current teams in the Premier League, Liverpool are still on track to record over 90 points this season and such a total would make the Reds deserving title winners.
