The weekend’s Premier League action begins with a crunch clash in the race for Champions League qualification, with fourth-placed Manchester City travelling to third-placed Nottingham Forest for the Saturday lunchtime kick-off.
City head to the City Ground just a point behind the hosts, who they beat 3-0 in December’s reverse fixture, but Forest have only lost twice at home in all competitions this season.
It has all the makings of a great game, and here are some assorted stats to ponder in the build-up…
Tighter than ever in the race for Europe
As things stand, Manchester City sit just five points ahead of 10th-placed Aston Villa. Since the Premier League first received a fourth Champions League spot in the 2002/03 campaign, there has never been a smaller gap between fourth and 10th at the start of March.
Victory, of course, would take Pep Guardiola’s side above Nottingham Forest and into third; anything less and they could find themselves with an uncomfortably thin cushion come the end of the weekend.
That said, City have begun March fourth in the Premier League twice since 2002/03 and gone on to clinch Champions League qualification both times, winning the title in 2013/14 and finishing fourth in 2015/16.
What’s more, the Premier League is on course to get a fifth Champions League place this term, with England currently topping UEFA’s coefficient rankings. That theoretically gives City – and Forest – more room for error during the run-in, but it could also make the sizeable chasing pack all the more motivated.
Forest in a drought?
By one measure, Nottingham Forest are on their worst run of the season. Nuno Espirito Santo’s team have failed to win any of their last five games in 90 minutes, needing penalties to see off Exeter and Ipswich in the FA Cup; in the Premier League, they lost away to Fulham and Newcastle before drawing at home to Arsenal.
The flip side of that is that it was only two home league games ago that Forest demolished Brighton 7-0. They also scored three in defeat to Newcastle and one against Fulham, meaning they increased their goals tally by a third (from 33 to 44) in just three matches.
They may have drawn a blank against Arsenal, but the goals have generally been flowing for Forest since the turn of the year – while City, who won 1-0 at Tottenham last time out in the league, have not kept back-to-back Prem clean sheets in 2024/25.
Clean-sheet class vs xG excellence
Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Matz Sels boasts a Premier League-high 11 clean sheets this term, while Manchester City’s number nine Erling Haaland leads the way on expected goals (xG) with 0.77 per 90 (the same as Danny Ings, but the West Ham striker has played just 264 Prem minutes to Haaland’s 2,303).
Haaland is getting himself into good goalscoring positions (who’d have thought it, huh?) and has scored 25 league goals from 19.8 xG in 2024/25, but Sels has a knack for producing heroics in big moments. This could be an intriguing individual battle at the sharp end of the pitch.
