Football's tightest title race: Six clubs separated by two points - and a seventh in the mix

A week can feel like a long time in football; just ask Elche, who triumphantly took their place at the top of the Segunda, Spain’s second tier, for the first time this season with a 2-1 home win against Cartagena on February 23. Seven days later, after a sobering defeat in their very next match, 2-0 away to the new leaders Racing Santander, Elche found themselves in fifth place.

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Racing Santander Huesca Mirandes Levante Elche Real Oviedo Almeria

Things are incredibly tight at the top of the Segunda table, with just two points separating six teams vying for promotion to La Liga. Five of the six are within four goal difference points of each other, and three boast the joint-best defensive record in the division, having conceded just 23 goals after 29 of their 42 games.

That’s all without mentioning Almeria, the pre-season title favourites, who are lingering just three points further back having played a game more.

With runaway leaders starting to pull away in many of Europe’s top-flight divisions, only 2. Bundesliga — its German equivalent — can compete with the extreme competitiveness of the Segunda this season. The remarkable seven-horse race is not without precedent either, with data from sports intelligence firm Twenty First Group suggesting that the division’s 22 sides are more tightly packed together in terms of team quality than most.

Using Twenty First Group’s World Super League model, a machine-learning algorithm that generates ratings for every team in world football, league strength can be calculated from the average rating of each side within it.

As the graphic below illustrates, there is not only high quality throughout the Segunda, ranked the sixth-best league in Europe per Twenty First Group’s data, but a high concentration of similarly-rated sides, with only last-placed Cartagena and third-bottom Racing Ferrol falling noticeably below the cluster.

With so little to choose between the promotion candidates, The Athletic looks at the strengths and weaknesses of the seven sides to look for clues as to how a manic title race could unfold over the next three months.

Racing Santander

Seven teams have led the Segunda this season, but Racing have been the most frequent table-toppers, ending 15 of the 29 matchdays so far in first place. Were it not for a drastic mid-season slump, going seven games without a win and sacrificing their 12-point buffer, the side from the north-coast region of Cantabria would already be out of sight.

Having returned to the second tier after a thrilling title race with fallen giants Deportivo La Coruna in 2021-22, former La Liga side Racing have steadily improved year-on-year, only missing out on the promotion play-offs on goal difference last season.

Their style is markedly fluid, with creative players Inigo Vicente and Andres Martin encouraged to interchange and act on their instincts in the final third, looking to build attacks quickly and incisively through the centre of compact defensive blocks. Vicente led the Segunda in assists last season, while Martin is the only player in it to reach double figures for both goals (10) and assists (11) this time around.

🎩 Con @martin11andres creer es mucho más fácil.

⚽️ El ’11’ consiguió rescatar un punto para el @realracingclub. #LALIGAHYPERMOTION | #LALIGAHighlights pic.twitter.com/usJYKI4v6K

— LALIGA HYPERMOTION (@LaLiga2) February 26, 2025

It’s an eye-catching approach that rewards individualism and keeps striker Juan Carlos Arana connected to the game, but it isn’t without its weaknesses. With less emphasis on a counter-pressing structure, Racing can be caught on the break. Only two sides, rock-bottom Cartagena and 12th-placed Castellon, are conceding chances at a higher rate this season, at a rate of 1.3 expected goals (xG) per game.

With an adventurous tactical system, some of the division’s most exciting players, and a riotous fanbase; few would begrudge Racing a return to La Liga after 13 long years.

Huesca

A regional side for much of their existence, Huesca spent two seasons in La Liga in 2018-19 and 2020-21. They were relegated both times, and lost 8-2 to Barcelona at Camp Nou in their third-ever top-flight game, but never shied away from playing an adventurous brand of underdog football.

They’ve struggled to bounce back since that second relegation, finishing in the Segunda’s bottom half in the three seasons since, but Antonio Hidalgo’s side are currently 14 league games without defeat, shooting from 12th up to second in just over three months.

That unbeaten run has been inspired by Patrick Soko, a frighteningly quick winger moved infield to tear through the heart of defences from a centre-forward role. He has scored or assisted in 10 of those unbeaten games, including the winners in three 1-0 victories, a spectacular bicycle kick against Granada and two thumping finishes last weekend against Ferrol — the first time he’d scored twice in a Segunda match.

Soko has been in lethal form for Huesca (Jose Manuel Alvarez Rey/JAR Sport Images/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

If there is a concern about Huesca’s promotion push, it’s sustainability.

Soko’s lethal form is seeing them run hot in front of goal, scoring around 10 goals more this season than the quality of their chances suggest they should have, while they have only conceded 20 non-penalty goals from a cumulative opposition xG figure of 30.4 — both represent the biggest over-performance in the division.

With 13 regular-season games to go, can their good fortunes continue?

Mirandes

If you thought Huesca were plucky underdogs, Mirandes are fighting for the first La Liga promotion in the club’s 97-year history, where their 5,700-capacity Anduva stadium would be less than half the size of any current ground in Europe’s top five leagues.

What’s more, Alessio Lisci’s side only avoided relegation on the final day of last season with a nerve-racking 1-0 win, and began the new campaign with a threadbare squad and as one of the favourites to go down.

But this club are no strangers to footballing surprises, having reached the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey (Spain’s equivalent of the FA Cup) under current Bournemouth head coach Andoni Iraola in 2019-20, dispatching three La Liga sides — including Sevilla and Villarreal — along the way before losing to eventual winners Real Sociedad.

Operating on a shoestring budget, the club based an hour’s drive south of Bilbao have established themselves as a destination for La Liga loanees, with Nicolas Jackson (then Villarreal, now at Chelsea), Rodrigo Riquelme (Atletico Madrid) and Dani Vivian (Bilbao’s Athletic Club) among the most successful in recent years. They took 15 players on loan last summer, including their 13-goal top scorer Joaquin Panichelli (Alaves), his talented strike-partner Urko Izeta (Athletic Club) and defensive midfielder Jon Gorrotxategi (Real Sociedad).

Often lining up with five at the back and two powerful forwards, their season so far has been built on strong home form — the best in the division — and the tactical flexibility to grind out one-goal wins. Argentinian Panichelli planted a towering header back across goal in added time to seal a 2-1 comeback victory over Levante in December, before battling defenders and pulling a ball back for Joel Roca to win it 3-2 in the 94th minute against Malaga two months later. He and Izeta have scored together in five games this season, and are versatile forwards who can run in-behind, press high and win their physical duels.

The longer the season goes on, the more it feels like something special is on the cards.

Levante

No team in this race can match the recent top-flight pedigree of Levante, having spent 11 of the previous 15 seasons in La Liga.

The Valencia club had been among that division’s great entertainers before a miserable relegation campaign in 2021-22, with a dramatic 3-3 draw with Real Madrid at the start of that campaign and a 5-4 win over Barcelona in 2017-18 living particularly long in the memory.

Levante’s squad is certainly one of the strongest in the Segunda, spearheaded by club record goalscorer Jose Luis Morales, who has not lost too much of his quick footedness and invention in front of goal at the age of 37. Tricky 21-year-old winger Carlos Alvarez is at the opposite end of his career, and has five goals and six assists in the league this season from his wide berth, while Georgian 2024 European Championship breakout star Giorgi Kochorashvili is a relentless presence across the midfield.

Their attacking talent has translated into goalscoring opportunities, having created more non-penalty xG (44.4, 1.5 per game) than any other side in the division. Combining that rate with how many chances they concede at the other end gives their expected goal difference (xGD), a solid indicator of a team’s strength throughout a season and another encouraging metric for which Levante sit top:

With just one defeat in 12 matches, including scoring twice in added time in a 2-1 win over Eldense last weekend, they have momentum on their side, with the feeling that there is still another gear to hit.

Levante are strong contenders.

Elche

Elche underwent a major transformation after the departure of Sebastian Beccacece, now the coach of the Ecuadorian national team, near the end of last season. In hiring coach Eder Sarabia, a proven passing-obsessive from his time in this division with previous club FC Andorra, the club located near Alicante in southern Spain were committing to a new, highly positional style of play.

Sarabia was an assistant at Las Palmas, Real Betis and Barcelona under Quique Setien — one of the most devoted followers of Johan Cruyff and Pep Guardiola’s high-possession philosophy — before taking the Andorra job in 2021 and the impact of those years can clearly be seen on Elche.

Comparing their average number of passes per uninterrupted sequence of play (4.3) with the speed at which they move the ball towards the opposition goal (1.3 metres per second), they are by far the most patient side in the division in terms of build-up. Their average possession share of 62.6 per cent is also the Segunda’s highest, with Austrian centre-back David Affengruber at the heart of most attacking moves.

With such dominance of the ball has come a feeling of control throughout the season, though they are prone to the occasional blunt performance in front of goal, struggling to break down defensively robust sides who have learnt to sit deep against Elche and cede the initiative before hitting on the break: their 2-0 defeat at Racing on Sunday saw them have 76 per cent of the ball but create no big chances to their opponents’ four.

There are players in this squad who can provide attacking spark — Nicolas Fernandez is a pacy winger with creative end-product, and Nicolas Castro is a do-it-all midfielder who is dangerous from the edge of the penalty area — but Elche’s title bid is very much a team effort, looking to grind opponents down as a collective while controlling the flow of games.

Real Oviedo

Oviedo have been here before.

Beaten 2-1 on aggregate by Espanyol in the play-off final last term, and having finished in the top 10 in seven of the past nine Segunda seasons, promotion has been tantalisingly out of reach for a while now, the side from the north-western region of Asturias having last played in La Liga in 2001.

It’s no surprise to see them sixth now, although there is a sense of organisation this time under Javi Calleja, who has experience coaching towards the top of La Liga with Villarreal between 2017 and 2020.

A disappointing 2-1 home defeat against Deportivo saw their seven-game unbeaten streak snapped last weekend, but the manager has pointed to their structured attacking play and ability to retain the ball as a key reason for their steady form since the turn of the new year.

“We attack in an organised way, and that makes us more prepared to defend,” Calleja said after a 1-0 win over Albacete in February that brought a fourth clean sheet in five games. No Segunda side this season have allowed lower-quality goalscoring opportunities (23.3 xG, 0.80 per game) than Oviedo, backing up Calleja’s optimism in his team.

Further forward, a now 40-year-old Santi Cazorla is having his minutes managed between niggling injuries, but the long-time Arsenal favourite can still rise to the occasion when fit, notably running the show against Almeria in October as he created seven chances and provided two assists in a 3-2 win.

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No-nonsense striker Alemao has enjoyed his service, scoring 13 league goals this season, while talented Girona loanee Ilyas Chaira maintains the supply lines out wide.

👀 Es uno de los goles de la temporada.

🤯 La locura que hizo @alemao_zrwk9.

🚀 ¡Menudo obús del delantero del @RealOviedo!#LALIGAHYPERMOTION #LALIGAHighlights pic.twitter.com/rwkCSUQfto

— LALIGA HYPERMOTION (@LaLiga2) December 31, 2024

The processes are good at Oviedo, and the progress is clear — now to finally take that last step back to the big time.

Almeria

Many expected an instant return to La Liga for Almeria, having retained the core of the squad that came down in the summer, but they have been plagued by the same inconsistency that saw the south-coast club suffer a shock relegation nine months ago. After roaring to the top of the table in January via an emphatic 13-game unbeaten streak, they are winless in eight since, with defeats away to Albacete, Deportivo and most recently Eibar on Friday.

Still, there is little doubt that this is a side made up of top-tier players.

Striker Luis Suarez is ripping up the division, six clear in the race for the Golden Boot with 20 goals, albeit the Colombian has taken 40 more shots than any other Segunda player. Creative midfielder Sergio Arribas, 23, was a bright academy prospect at Real Madrid, scored nine times in La Liga last season, and bundled one home at the back-post last weekend in a 2-2 draw with Malaga.

Then there are diminutive winger Nico Melamed, metronomic midfielder Dion Lopy and scampering full-back Marc Pubill, all of whom are 23 or under.

On their day, coach Rubi (short for Joan Francesc Ferrer Sicilia) and his boys can overwhelm any side in this division, and might yet force their way back into the promotion picture from the current seventh spot.

From the free-flowing leaders to the gritty underdogs, the steady tacticians to the stuttering favourites, the 2024-25 Segunda title is very much up for grabs.

(Top photo of Santi Cazorla: DAX Images/NurPhoto via Getty Images)