By Sam McGuire
Having been lauded for his calm and composed nature last season, the Cold Palmer nickname is now tied to his barren run.
Having had a penalty saved by Leicester keeper Mads Hermansen in his last outing, Chelsea’s No.20 is now nine games without a goal. He’s scored just three times in his last 15 appearances for the Blues in all competitions.
The goalscoring bubble has well and truly burst for the 22-year-old. Last season, he could do no wrong. He finished his debut campaign with the Blues having scored 22 Premier League goals while also chipping in with 11 assists. He was the main man for Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea side and a lot of people seemed to be keen on the idea of him being the main man for England at the Euros.
They wanted to take advantage of his confidence, and rightly so.
Now, he’s lacking confidence. The failed penalty attempt against the Foxes was the first time he’s missed from the spot since the move to Stamford Bridge.
Enzo Maresca looked to protect the England international. Speaking after the 1-0 win over his former side, Maresca said: “Cole yesterday didn’t train. During the night, he didn’t feel well and he didn’t train yesterday because he didn’t feel well.
“But this morning he woke up and asked me to be on the pitch because he wants to help this club play in the Champions League ‘But in the last two days, he was completely out; he didn’t train because of fever and this bad feeling. But this morning he asked to play the game and it shows how these players want to bring the club to where this club belongs.”
Palmer hasn’t gone missing during this vital run for the Blues. He’s just struggled to perform and the optics aren’t great. They dropped out of the title race and then crashed out of the FA Cup with defeat to Brighton.
They’re now back in control of their fate and sit in fourth position following the 1-0 win on Sunday coupled with Manchester City’s loss to Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
The thing with finishing is that it can be fickle.
Last season, everything Palmer did seemed to result in a goal involvement. In fact, no player in the Premier League finished with more goals and assists (33). This season, the England international has just 20 goal involvements with 10 games to play. He could still match his return of last term if things turn around for him in the penalty area.
Right now, though, he ranks fifth behind Chris Wood (21), Erling Haaland (23), Alexander Isak (24) and Mohamed Salah (44).
The Chelsea attacker has a FotMob rating of 7.71, a total only Bukayo Saka (7.76) and Salah (8.29) can better. The Liverpool man is having an all-timer of a season and this needs to be taken into account when analysing everyone else.
Remove him from the conversation and only Saka can boast a higher Fotmob rating and Palmer would be just four goal involvements off the top. It isn’t as bad as it might seem, is it?
The big issue with Palmer is that four of his goals arrived in one match against Brighton while three of his six assists were in a win over Wolves. Remove those two games from his campaign and he’s on 10 goals and three assists. He’s not been anywhere near as consistent or reliable as he was last season. In fact, he’s only scored or assisted in 12 games across all comps this term. That is a lot of blanks.
What hasn’t helped his cause is the penalty situation. He’s scored three and missed one. Last season, he scored nine in the Premier League. Remove them and he finishes the season with 13 goals in the English top-flight. Still impressive, just not as impressive.
Palmer has suffered because he’s not had as many penalties to boost those numbers of his. That isn’t a dig, it’s fact. Last season, 41% of his goals were via the spot. This season, just 21%.
What is interesting though is how his numbers this season are almost identical to those he posted during the 2023/24 campaign. For example, he had a FotMob average rating of 7.8. He averaged 3.75 shots per 90, had a Non-Penalty xG90 of 0.38 and had an Expected Assists per 90 average of 0.3.
This season so far, he’s averaged 3.75 shots, had a Non-Penalty xG90 of 0.44 and an Expected Assists per 90 average of 0.27, giving him a Non-Penalty Expected Goals Involvement average of 0.71, just 0.03 up on last term.
If anything, his underlying numbers are better this season. The difference is while he was scoring last season, he isn’t managing to put the ball into the back of the net as frequently this time around. He’s judged on output and the output, right now, is lacking.
However, that doesn’t mean he won’t rediscover his confidence again soon. Ice cold Cole Palmer will return for Chelsea and he has the perfect opportunity to remind everyone of his ability this weekend at the Emirates against title-chasing Arsenal.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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