Two in-form teams clash in a battle that could shake up the top-four race as Mainz 05 host Freiburg in Bundesliga round 26 on Saturday.
The 05ers sit third in the standings after going five games without defeat, winning each of the last four, while the visitors are just three points adrift in fifth, currently on a six-match unbeaten run.
Match preview
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With 44 points from 25 games, comprising 13 wins, five draws and seven defeats, Mainz are enjoying their best season in the Bundesliga, having never previously been in the top three at this stage of a top-flight campaign.
However, what appears to be a smooth ride now did not begin on the steadiest of paths, with the 05ers managing just two victories in their opening seven matches.
While Bo Henriksen‘s side embarked on an explosive run in the next seven matches, winning six, the script soon flipped — what was once a solitary defeat in that stretch soon gave way to a lone victory in the next four, with losses now taking over, before their current five-match unbeaten streak.
Die Nullfunfer are enjoying their longest invincible spell of the campaign, the latest result being a 3-1 triumph at Borussia Monchengladbach over the weekend, one which also saw them register four consecutive victories for the first time since February-March 2023.
Speaking of lengthy spells, Mainz do not have fond memories against Freiburg, having failed to win any of their last seven Bundesliga meetings – only enduring a more extended drought against Union Berlin (eight games).
Even so, FSV have every reason to believe they can finally end their winless streak in this fixture and widen the gap over their visitors, considering their formidable home form, winning six of their last seven matches — a run built on defensive resilience.
Mainz have kept clean sheets in five of those seven matches while finding the net 13 times during that stretch.
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As a worthy opponent to challenge the hosts’ attacking prowess on home soil, Freiburg will take confidence from their exceptional defensive record, having kept six consecutive clean sheets, setting a new club record after their goalless draw against RB Leipzig last time out.
That was a second successive stalemate after the Breisgau Brazilians had won their previous four, with this ongoing six-match unbeaten run their longest in two years, since a seven-match stretch from February to April 2023.
With 41 points from 25 matchdays, SCF have achieved their third-best tally at this stage of a Bundesliga campaign (using three points per win), only bettering it in 2022-23 (46) and 1994-95 (49).
Knowing victory this weekend could propel them into the Champions League spots, as they sit just one point behind fourth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, Freiburg have added motivation to claim at least a win over Mainz for a third straight Bundesliga season, having played out a goalless draw in the reverse fixture in November.
The visitors have won two of their last three away games (D1), after failing to secure any in the previous five (D1, 4L), and with this improved form, Julian Schuster‘s side will believe they can continue the trend.
Team News
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The win at Monchengladbach came at a cost, with attacker Jonathan Burkardt forced off in the 70th minute, casting doubt over his availability for the weekend.
Should Burkardt be unfit to feature, Nelson Weiper, who replaced him in that match, will have the opportunity to lead the line, with Paul Nebel and Jae-Sung Lee likely to retain their places in the three-man attack.
Meanwhile, Mainz’s only confirmed injury absentee is centre-back Stefan Bell (hamstring), so expect Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz and Dominik Kohr to form the defensive unit.
Further forward, Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri are almost certain to be paired in a double pivot, while Anthony Caci and Philipp Mwene could operate as wing-backs once again.
As for Freiburg, left winger Florent Muslija could miss another game due to an ankle issue, while Bruno Ogbus remains ruled out for the season with an Achilles tendon injury.
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh remains sidelined with a knee injury that could keep him out until late March, while Max Rosenfelder faces a potential fourth straight absence due to infection and Merlin Röhl‘s availability remains uncertain after missing the last match.
As a result, Lucas Hoeler could once again drop deeper to provide support from an advanced three-man midfield behind Chukwubuike Adamu, who is set to lead the line as he did in the previous match.
Vincenzo Grifo could return to the starting lineup after coming on at half time against Leipzig, meaning Eren Dinkci may have to make way.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Da Costa, Jenz, Kohr; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Weiper, Lee
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Sildillia, Ginter, Lienhart, Gunter; Eggestein, Osterhage; Doan, Hoeler, Grifo; Adamu
We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Freiburg
With both teams in strong form and defensively solid, a tight, low-scoring contest seems likely, and with five of their last seven meetings ending in stalemates, another draw appears the most probable outcome.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
