PIF could loop Newcastle United into Brazilian takeover as finance insider issues ‘next Neymar’ claim

When the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) took over Newcastle United in October 2021, many of the fans celebrating outside St James’ Park probably imagined a future flooded with Hollywood signings.

As it happens, the Magpies didn’t really have their Robinho moment, unlike Manchester City when they became the Premier League’s first Gulf state-backed club in 2008.

Instead, the first signing of the new Newcastle United era under PIF was Kieran Trippier from Atletico Madrid, a club who have since become heavily involved with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

That £12m signing was emblematic of the new dawn at St James’ Park in more ways than one.

Trippier has been a superb servant for Eddie Howe bur his arrival in the North East was a signal that the PIF revolution would be a slow burn, not a Man City-style explosion.

By any measure, the dizzyingly ambitious project is ahead of schedule.

This weekend, Howe’s side make their second appearance at Wembley with the League Cup final against Liverpool, while a second Champions League appearance in three seasons well on the cards in 2025-26.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
ArsenalArsenal	28	15	10	3	52	24	28	55
3	Nottm ForestNottingham Forest	28	15	6	7	45	33	12	51
4	ChelseaChelsea	28	14	7	7	53	36	17	49
5	Man CityManchester City	28	14	5	9	53	38	15	47
6	NewcastleNewcastle	28	14	5	9	47	38	9	47
7	BrightonBrighton	28	12	10	6	46	40	6	46
8	Aston VillaAston Villa	29	12	9	8	41	45	-4	45
9	B’mouthBournemouth	28	12	8	8	47	34	13	44

But Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) have been a millstone.

Make no mistake, spending has increased by an order of magnitude since the Mike Ashley era, which was a low bar.

In fact, their recently released accounts for 2023-24 confirmed that, for the first, time they have broken the ‘Big Six’ wage bill hegemony. Their £218m outlay is expected to be higher than Tottenham’s.

Admittedly, those figures are for a season when Newcastle played in the Champions League and paid out bonuses in line with that while Spurs did not, but it is still a landmark moment.

Revenue has soared since 2021 too. It’s amazing what a little TLC for the commercial department and a reinvigorated matchday experience can do in the world of football finance.

But PSR is the reason that PIF are unable to match – or, indeed, get anywhere near – the investment they have plunged into the Saudi Pro League, 2034 World Cup bid, and nearly all of their other sporting plans.

With PSR set to continue in its current form for another season, the Premier League’s curbs on spending aren’t going away any time soon.

As well as some accounting sleights of hands that have seen the Magpies comply with PSR so far, such as the quasi-swap deals last June, PIF have been forced to think smarter than other clubs.

The multi-club avenue has been on the agenda since Amanda Staveley first suggested it almost immediately after the takeover.

Speaking exclusively to TBR Football, Liverpool University football finance expert Kieran Maguire gives his analysis on the progress of the multi-club projects amid an interesting update from South America.

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PIF could take over Brazilian club, says Kieran Maguire

City Football Group and Red Bull are the archetypal multi-club networks. The influence of those two sprawling football structures has been profound.

Previously, PIF have been linked with taking over a team in Brazil to act as a sister club – or potentially a subsidiary of – Newcastle United.

Since loosening restrictions on private investment in 2021, Brazil has become one of the most desirable multi-club markets.

Man City and Red Bull have outposts there, as does Crystal Palace co-owner John Textor’s Eagle Football Group. Liverpool owners FSG have been linked with an acquisition there too.

Last year, it emerged that PIF were exploring the Brazilian market with a potential deal for historic Série A side Vasco da Gama, who were for sale following the collapse of another multi-club empire, 777 Partners.

Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis has since been in talks with a view to a takeover of Vasco. In any case, it is understood that PIF’s interest in Brazil as their next football jumping off point remains.

Significantly, Newcastle recently signed a deal with Destra, one of Brazil’s biggest licensing agencies.

The aim is to increase their commercial presence in the country, capitalising on the profiles of Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton.

“The launch of the club’s in-house retail and licensing department coincided with our partnership with adidas, providing a solid foundation for building a global licensing program,” said Leigh Simpson, Newcastle’s head of global licensing.

“Our goal is to transform Newcastle United into one of the world’s leading licensed sports brands, and Destra has the expertise to help us achieve this goal in Brazil.

Could it also be a sign that PIF are tightening the bonds with Brazil ahead of a second takeover of a major football club? “It would make sense for Brazil to be the next multi-club destination,” says Kieran Maguire.

“They have been successful in expanding their commercial income, as we have seen in the accounts this week.

“Trying to tie up the relationship with fans in Brazil that is linked to Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton makes logical sense. I don’t think they would go as far as co-badging with a Brazilian team, but the logic is there.

“It makes an awful lot of sense for the Saudi Pro League to start looking at sources of players to expand interest in their competition, and Brazil is a natural place to start.

“I think interest in the Pro League has stalled in terms of viewing figures.

“If they can offer a pathway to young Brazilian players who might otherwise have come to Europe, they turn out to be the next Neymar, that would add to the credibility of the Saudi football project going forwards.”

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Newcastle United could seek compensation over APT rules

In other news, it has been reported that Newcastle are among the clubs who could file a claim against the Premier League relating to a previous version of its ATP rules, which was declared illegal earlier this year.

Man City successfully challenged the Associated Party Transaction rules, which dictate that deals between clubs and owner-linked entities should be screened for fair market value, in the arbitration courts.

Newcastle’s front-of-shirt partnership with PIF-owned Sela was one of the deals which the Premier League’s Fair Market Value assessment scaled back during the period the system was in place.

“Newcastle were one of the four clubs that voted against the APT rules,” says Maguire, predicting whether or not PIF would go through the appeals process.

“There is no love lost between Newcastle United and the Premier League. Therefore, to pursue this could be done for both financial and, from their point of view, ethical reasons. It has become personal.

“They will speak to their advisers and cost out whether or not it is worth doing. If it is one of those that is 50-50, they will probably say go for it.

“Typically, you would expect clubs to walk away from it. But Newcastle have the luxury of not having to do that.

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Newcastle’s stance on PSR being retained for another year

Another effect of the APT case has been to delay a new, UEFA-style PSR system which is expected to limit spending on wages, transfers and agents to 85 per cent of revenue plus player sale profits.

Premier League clubs voted 19-1 to keep this existing rules at a meeting last month. Incidentally, TBR Football understands that Crystal Palace, not Newcastle, were the on dissenting team in the vote.

But what will be the Magpies general feeling towards the retention of the PSR?

“We have seen an acceleration of matchday and commercial income at Newcastle,” Maguire observes. “I think there will be an acceleration of spending but there will still be some juggling to do.

“The fact that they are using the player trading model well, in the sense that they managed to get good value out of the sales of Anderson and Minteh, will put them them in a strong position.

“They are worse off with PSR being retained, but only moderately, because they have the rear-view mirror anchor from those last two seasons.

“I don’t think it will be a killer blow for them, especially not if they get into Europe.”