By Sam McGuire
For the Reds, it is an opportunity to lift this trophy for the third time in four seasons. For the Magpies, famously, it’s a chance for them to win their first piece of domestic silverware since 1955.
Does momentum matter?
Newcastle warmed up for this cup final with a 1-0 win over West Ham United on Monday night. Bruno Guimarães scored just after the hour mark to move the Magpies up from 9th into sixth spot in the Premier League. They’re now level on points with fifth placed Manchester City and just two points off of Chelsea, the team currently in possession of the final Champions League position.
The win was just their second in five matches. During this run, they’ve lost to Manchester City (4-0), Liverpool (2-0) and were knocked out of the FA Cup by Brighton (2-1).
They haven’t been in the greatest form.
Liverpool, meanwhile, had won four on the spin heading into their second-leg Champions League clash with Paris Saint-Germain. They’ve extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to 15 points during this run. But a penalty shootout loss to the French champions ended any hopes of a treble this term for the Reds.
It’ll be interesting to see how they react to this hammer blow.
History paints this fixture as very one-sided
The last time Newcastle United defeated Liverpool was in December 2015. Gini Wijnaldum scored for the Magpies in a 2-0 win. Since then, the Reds are on a 17-match unbeaten run against Sunday’s opponents.
Form goes out of the window in these games. Does history, though?
A final is a one-off event. Nothing should matter, yet we’ve seen it countless times in the past. Unbeaten runs remain intact because of the psychology of the situation rather than anything else. Eddie Howe hasn’t beaten Liverpool as Newcastle United manager. They’ve lost a variety of different ways too, including a smash and grab at St James’ Park last season when Darwin Núñez netted twice late on to stun the hosts. They were outplayed at Anfield last month.
Liverpool find ways to avoid defeat against the Magpies. Newcastle find ways to avoid beating the Reds. Will it continue?
Arne Slot versus Eddie Howe
Slot guided Feyenoord to their first KNVB Cup success since 2018 last season as they beat NEC 1-0 in the final. The Rotterdam-based club won the Eredivisie the season prior.
The Dutch tactician knows what it takes to win and that knowledge, insight, and winning mentality can be massive in these fixtures.
Howe, meanwhile, has been in this sort of high-pressure situation on just one other occasion during his managerial career. He guided Newcastle to the Carabao Cup final during the 2022/23 campaign, losing 2-0 to Manchester United in the final.
The Magpies also finished bottom of their Champions League group last season. It isn’t a dig at Howe either. He’s just not done exceptionally well in these big moments as manager of the North East club. Again, this could be a sticking point on Sunday.
How are the squads looking?
Liverpool are still without defensive duo Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez. Ibrahima Konaté and Trent Alexander-Arnold hobbled off against PSG in midweek and could miss the game. This means Jarell Quansah will likely start at right-back with Wataru Endo at centre-back.
Howe is without the suspended Anthony Gordon while Lewis Hall and Sven Botman miss out with injuries. It means three of his best XI are missing for the final. They’re also without captain Jamal Lascelles.
Prediction
It’ll be a tight game but Liverpool should have the experience, as well as the squad depth, to get over the line here and deliver Slot’s first piece of silverware as manager. We’re going with a 2-1 win for the Reds.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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