Borussia Dortmund‘s faint hopes of European football could be all but extinguished on Sunday when they host Champions League hopefuls Mainz 05 at Signal Iduna Park in the Bundesliga.
BVB lost 2-0 against RB Leipzig on March 15 and their tally of 35 points is 10 fewer than third-placed Mainz, who drew 2-2 with Freiburg on March 15 and occupy the third of four Champions League qualification spots.
Match preview
© Imago
The Black and Yellows somehow failed to find the back of the net against Leipzig despite creating six big chances and more than three xG, while Die Roten Bullen scored twice from four big chances and 1.87 xG.
Niko Kovac‘s tenure as boss has not gone to plan given he has experienced four defeats in his six Bundesliga games in charge.
The hosts have only scored three goals in their past four matches, and have not scored in their last two in the league.
Dortmund are seven points behind sixth-placed Freiburg and fifth-placed Leipzig, who occupy the division’s Conference League and Europa League qualification spots respectively, but it is difficult to see them closing that gap given there are just eight matchweeks remaining in the top flight.
BVB’s form is poor, with the club losing two, drawing one and winning one of their four most recent outings, and they have in fact been defeated in seven of their last 11 in the league.
Kovac’s side have also struggled for positive results at home having only triumphed in two of their past 11 at Signal Iduna Park, losing on four occasions.
© Imago
Opponents Mainz should be praised for managing to earn a point against Freiburg considering they were reduced to 10 men in the 43rd minute when they were only winning 1-0.
Karnevalsverein have scored at least two goals for five consecutive games, and it should be noted that their record of 28 goals conceded in the Bundesliga makes them the second best defensive club in the top flight.
Head coach Bo Henriksen oversaw a 3-1 victory against Dortmund in their meeting on November 9, though they were aided by the fact BVB player Emre Can was sent off in the 27th minute.
Mainz’ form in the last weeks has been outstanding given they are undefeated in six fixtures, emerging victorious four times while keeping three clean sheets.
The visitors have also won three consecutive away matches, but they did lose their previous three on the road.
Team News
© Imago
Dortmund head into Sunday’s clash without midfielders Marcel Sabitzer and Felix Nmecha, though the latter is only expected to miss a few days of action due to illness.
Defender Waldemar Anton could be thrust into a double pivot alongside Pascal Gross given his versatility, and they are likely to be tasked with protecting centre-backs Can and Nico Schlotterbeck.
In attack, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Karim Adeyemi may flank striker Serhou Guirassy, who could be supported by attacking midfielder Julian Brandt.
Mainz’ injury list is not too extensive given centre-back Stefan Bell is their only confirmed injury absentee, but Dominik Kohr is suspended following his red card against Freiburg.
Perhaps Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz and Andreas Hanche-Olsen will start in central defence, and they may play behind midfielders Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri.
Wing-back Philipp Mwene is also suspended, making Silvan Widmer and Anthony Caci the most probable candidates to flank the back three.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Can, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Anton, Gross; Adeyemi, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens; Guirassy
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Da Costa, Jenz, Hanche-Olsen; Widmer, Sano, Amiri, Caci; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt
We say: Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Mainz 05
It is hard to say that Dortmund have improved under Kovac, and his side’s poor form at home may continue on the weekend.
Mainz have been excellent for some time and given they have also been strong on the road, they should be seen as clear favourites to claim all three points.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
