With just six games to go, we are into the Business End of the Season™. There should be no margin for error and yet, here we are. Looking at the top eight teams and their form over the last three games, ALL eight have lost at least one of them.
It’s a maddening maelstrom. Here, anyone can beat anyone else. It’s Heath Ledger’s Joker and every team is a dog chasing a car, not knowing what to do if they’d ever catch one. You just don’t get this higher up the leagues. Take Crewe in ninth. They were in the promotion spots from October onwards but thanks to a 4-1 home defeat to Fleetwood and three draws in a row, they too have stumbled out of the play-offs. Give them a couple more victories however, and they could be back into the automatic promotion places!
Walsall wobbling after Nathan Lowe blow
Let’s take league leaders, Walsall. Nine consecutive wins by mid-January put them 12 points clear at the top of the table. That advantage has been virtually wiped away.
Blowing a margin on this scale leads, inevitably, to memories of Kevin Keegan’s maverick 1996 Newcastle side and his infamous ‘I will love it’ rant, live on Sky Sports. The rot had set in long before his Monday Night Football outburst, but given Walsall are down to the solitary point, you could forgive Mat Sadler for also getting emotional in a cupboard.
The pressure, mind games and an Alex Ferguson-led Manchester United cut Keegan and his men down but for Sadler it’s down to losing just one man, Nathan Lowe.
Rule number one with transfers in the lower leagues is ‘don’t fall in love with a loanee’. There will always be a break-up. I once painstakingly sewed ‘Kasper Schmeichel’ onto a Denmark flag in homage to one of Bury’s finest temporary shot-stoppers. He came back for a second season but the same won’t be happening for Lowe. Scoring 15 and setting up another five in just 22 league games, the 6’4” 19-year-old was too good for the fourth tier, and Stoke City recalled him in January. In his absence, I’ve seen Lowe’s abandoned strike partner, Jamille Matt, have the ball lumped up to him, ploughing away in the mud, with his side in the mire.
Aside from losing Lowe, the data clearly tells you Walsall’s style of play. They are hard-working in winning the ball in the final third – better than anyone else in fact (4.3 times per game). They’ll move the ball quickly and have the third lowest possession in the league (43.7%).
And, added to this has been set pieces. 22 of their 67 goals have come from set-plays, only Lincoln City (25) have scored more this season across all four of England’s professional divisions. It’s worked a treat but right now, their opponents have their number.
The Wombles one Wimbledon are coming to town
Next up for Walsall is third-placed AFC Wimbledon, and I’m looking forward to my trip to the Bescot Stadium on Saturday. We’ll also have a glimpse into the past as the ‘Matt Attack’ is reunited. Just when Jamile Matt is getting over losing Lowe, he’s confronted with another old partner in Matty Stevens. At Forest Green Rovers they plundered 42 goals between them to help take the League Two title back in 2021. But as far Walsall’s current woes, both players can relate to a wobble at the top.
Leading by 10 points in mid-February with only two defeats all season, Rob Edwards’ FGR went completely off the boil. They ended with just one victory in their final seven games and clinched the title from Exeter City on goal difference only.
Three automatic promotion spots mean you can stumble over the line but with Port Vale on the same points-tally as Wimbledon and with Doncaster Rovers having just one fewer, this time around Walsall are in real danger of falling far if things don’t turnaround quickly.
Add to that, Wimbledon are just hard to beat. They have the best defence in the league, conceding just 28 goals all season and have kept 18 clean sheets. Walsall misfired in their stalemate at Gillingham and just to make things worse, Stevens is the division’s joint-top scorer (17) along with Alassana Jata and Michael Cheek. Remember though, as this is League Two, of course Stevens’ 85th minute finish to make it 2-0 against Barrow last time out wasn’t enough for three points! An 85th minute Wimbledon corner led to Dean Campbell pulling one back at the other end before Connor Mahoney’s injury-time equaliser stunned Plough Lane. Even the division’s best defence can completely switch off.
Valley trophy Parade in May?
So, if Walsall can’t get it together, enter second-placed Bradford City. For the longest time they’ve been expert at finding new and exciting ways to fail. The division’s best supported side are now into their sixth tier in the EFL basement.
As an away fan, Valley Parade is one of my favourite football memories. Visiting players have raised their game as the home side shrank in front of its towering stands, until now. Their record up aside from this campaign has been abysmal. But, given time, Graham Alexander has taken last season’s 16th best home side and made them the top team on their own turf.
Valley Parade’s strength was demonstrated ‘scarf day’ against Colchester United, where a league-record 23,381 saw them run out 4-1 victors. Colchester were spirited and arrived off the back of five wins in a row and 13 unbeaten, and on a promotion push of their own. Despite this, a relentless City side were able to put them away. George Lapslie has impressed since his January arrival and has been just the tonic for the ACL injury that’s ruled out Bradford talisman, Andy Cook.
All of this sets us up for a thrilling finale. I’ve not even managed to mention the evergreen David McGoldrick, now aged 37, turning it on at just the right time again which, combined with Alassana Jatta’s exploits, put Notts County in a fantastic position to push on after they’d fallen away.
Nor have I told you how mesmerised I was at seeing the mercurial Luke Molyneux, effervescent Jordan Gibson and clinical Rob Street play for Doncaster. I should probably have noted Jaden Stockley finding his feet under Darren Moore at Port Vale and you would have thought I’d have made time for a Bury old-boy in Danny Rose at Grimsby Town but no, this is League Two, and by next week the promotion picture will have completely changed again!
The world’s best fourth tier continues to be as brilliant as it is baffling. And this time, we’re in for a hell of a finale.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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