By Karl Matchett
The cucumber growers are not a banana skin
It’s Leganés who come to town on this occasion, with both they and Los Blancos just a single position and a handful of points in the table shy of their seasonal objectives – but there any similarities end. Real Madrid are second in LaLiga, chasing down Barcelona who have a three-point lead with ten games to go. For Leganés, it’s relegation they seek to avoid, but they lie 18th, the final drop-spot, in a congested battle to avoid falling to La Segunda.
Los pepineros don’t have a great track record of spoiling the party against Madrid; they’ve never won a game against them from nine LaLiga meetings and results this term were 0-3 in league play and 2-3 in the Copa, both games at the Butarque rather than the Bernabéu and the latter featuring a heavily-rotated Real side.
Recent form
More recently, Real have won seven of their last eight and haven’t lost a fixture played at the Santiago Bernabéu since November. They have LaLiga’s best home record too this year, four points more than Barcelona after the same games, or the same points as Atlético after playing two at home fewer. For Leganés, it’s six defeats from the last eight and one away win in LaLiga all season – though, to be fair, that did come against Barcelona of all teams. It’s reasonable to expect that if they survive it will be based on home form – five wins from 14 so far – not trips to the title challengers, yet even a surprise draw would go a long way to helping considering the four teams 15th to 18th are separated by just one point.
Team news
The usual suspects are unavailable for the long haul for Real, including Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão, and the shorter-term doubts such as Thibaut Courtois and Ferland Mendy are unlikely to be risked either given the Copa semifinal coming up in midweek. Leganés have their own long-term issues with left-backs Borna Barišić and Enric Franquesa both sidelined but are otherwise at full capacity.
Key player
Ultimately these types of matches tend to be settled by greater final-third quality, even if performance levels aren’t in top gear. But sometimes that means someone needs to be the spark to turn a stroll into a success and Federico Valverde is frequently that someone for Real Madrid. He’s won more duels than 98% of similar LaLiga players, won the ball back in the final third more than 84% and has had more shots on target than any other central midfielder. A true team dynamo from deep.
Prediction
Bringing it back to the top then: an ultimately forgettable result in the context of the season with a routine Real Madrid win, 3-0.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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