Analysing Manchester United’s 23 shots against Forest – and what it says of their attack

Manchester United failed to score again — for the 11th time in their 30 Premier League matches this season, in fact — although certainly not for the want of trying.

Their 23 shots in the 1-0 away loss against Nottingham Forest on Tuesday was their most without finding the net in a top-flight game since a defeat to Aston Villa by the same score at Old Trafford in September 2021, when they had 28 attempts.

You have to go back almost two decades for the last time United had as many shots in an away game but failed to score — to a 1-0 defeat to West Ham at Upton Park in December 2006, when 24 shots were not enough to cancel out Nigel Reo-Coker’s winner for the home side.

“I think I’m always honest when I say our team didn’t create chances. Today, we create chances,” head coach Ruben Amorim said post-match, yet he admitted United could have “created more with the possession that we had”.

“We reached the final third a lot of times but we need to be better in that final third because it is really important to score goals, and we have a lack of goals,” Amorim added.

The guy clearly felt his side deserved more from their trip to the City Ground. And their xG (expected goals) figure of 1.63 for the night was significantly higher than Forest’s 0.48, but then you have to consider that Nuno Espirito Santo’s side were in front from the fifth minute onwards. For the vast majority of the game, Forest did not need to score. They only needed to protect their lead.

Anyone who has watched Forest this season should know what to expect once they go ahead: they are happy to give up possession, stay compact and challenge their opponents to break them down.

United did not manage to do that, despite all those shots, and did not really come close to doing so until a surprising experiment deep into the second half.

Central defender Harry Maguire’s introduction as an auxiliary centre-forward in the 88th minute of the 90 almost earned them a point.

Amorim later explained that the game had become “a matter of size”, with Forest defending in a back six. “Then we had to put the ball inside the box because it’s hard to make combinations to get inside the box to score goals.”

In just eight minutes on the pitch, including stoppage time, the 6ft 4in (194cm) Maguire had three attempts worth an individual XG number of 0.60 — which as much as United striker Rasmus Hojlund has accumulated in his past six Premier League outings combined (0.54).

Maguire’s first chance was a header wide from close range after Alejandro Garnacho had slipped Patrick Dorgu in down the United left.

Forest’s back six has broken down into a more traditional four here. Maguire does well to isolate himself against Brazilian centre-back Morato but Dorgu’s cross is slightly behind him at the point of contact, making it difficult to direct the ball back towards goal.

Maguire’s other attempts followed in quick succession in the 97th minute. Forest’s back six is set and organised this time but he again positions himself well, finding space at the far post.

The 32-year-old England international makes shooting contact with Noussair Mazraoui’s cross first-time, only for Nicolas Dominguez to get in the way of the ball. Using his strength, Maguire bullies Dominguez to give himself another opportunity, but Murillo clears off the goal line.

Those were easily United’s best opportunities of the evening.

Up until Maguire’s introduction, the closest they had come to equalising was Diogo Dalot’s header from a Bruno Fernandes corner midway through the first half, which he was unlucky to see bounce on the top of the crossbar.

The rebound falls to Matthijs de Ligt but awkwardly, too close to him and at a tight angle, which forces him to shoot down into the ground. Goalkeeper Matz Sels then parries it away to safety.

Set pieces have proved relatively fruitful for United this term. Only four top-flight sides have scored more than their 10 goals from dead-ball situations. United have been decidedly mid-table when it comes to creating opportunities in open play, however. Before Maguire’s late flurry, De Ligt’s shot on the rebound from that Dalot header was their highest-xG chance of the match — 0.15, according to Opta.

Two of United’s six attempts on target came from set plays. Casemiro’s header early in the second half was well-placed but did not have the power to beat Sels. The Brazil midfielder had also put one wide after 13 minutes.

In all, eight of United’s 23 attempts on goal were headers but they were rarely gilt-edged. Aside from Maguire’s excellent headed opportunity at the death, they averaged 0.04 xG from them. A couple were from ambitious angles and distances while three fell to Patrick Dorgu, who only managed to get one on target.

The Danish wing-back came away with four shots in total — the second-most of any United player. That and United’s best chances falling to two of their centre-backs point to a familiar issue that gets to the heart of this team’s ongoing struggles to score goals: a lack of output among the attacking players.

Hojlund showed intent after coming on as a half-time substitute but one 47th-minute shot from a narrow angle was all he mustered up. At least that was more than Joshua Zirkzee managed in his 78 minutes on the pitch, despite him starting up front. Fernandes had three of the 23 attempts — two from long range, the other a header — but none after being moved to a deeper midfield role for the second half.

Garnacho remains United’s most threatening attacking outlet but his performance at the City Ground was his frustrating season in microcosm. No player had more than his six shots yet he put none of them on target, and several were the product of questionable decision-making.

United’s only chance to come from a fast break up the pitch fell to the Argentinian. Forest rarely offered up such space in behind but, as with Amorim’s side on Anthony Elanga’s decisive early goal, were caught out after an attacking set piece.

Those sorts of opportunities play to United’s, and Garnacho’s, strengths.

The 20-year-old initially drives towards goal with only Hojlund in support and, even then, still a long way behind.

By the time Garnacho has elected to cut inside on his right foot, Hojlund’s caught up and is a passing option, albeit with Forest centre-back Nikola Milenkovic close by. Zirkzee is also arriving to join the attack from a deep. Garnacho chooses to take the shot on himself, and the attempt is blocked by Ryan Yates.

Going it alone then was understandable given the speed at which the attack developed but Garnacho’s decision to shoot again minutes later rather than play in an overlapping Dorgu (below) is less forgivable. Christian Eriksen is also available on the edge of the box. Garnacho blazed his attempt high and wide.

It was one of five shots he took in 17 minutes of game time, most of them after cutting in from the right. Only one went remotely close to the target, and almost all of them came when recirculating possession might have been wiser.

“Sometimes, he is trying too much,” Amorim later said of Garnacho. “He has Dorgu to make a move but I think he wants to help the team to do his best. Sometimes, he doesn’t make the best choice.”

Garnacho’s decision-making is the aspect of his game in need of the greatest improvement but he is capable of making the right call — as demonstrated later when playing Dorgu in to set up Maguire’s header detailed earlier in this article.

And moments after that, Garnacho actually received the ball wide on the United left once more. Again he came inside, only that time he passed square to Dalot, who teed up the Mazraoui’s cross which almost led to Maguire scoring a 97th-minute leveller.

On another night, Maguire pokes that ball out of Murillo’s reach and into the net or Dalot’s header dips under the crossbar rather than finding the top of it, or Garnacho finds his wing-back on the overlap rather than going for unlikely glory himself, and United travel home with a point.

Yet you could say that sort of stuff after many of their disappointing results this season. That statistic that they have failed to score in 11 of their league games so far is made worse by the fact they have only won 10 of the 30.

Through a combination of sub-standard chance creation and finishing, they now also have the fourth-lowest conversion rate (9.14) in the Premier League.

This side need a lot of shots in order to score and as Tuesday’s game again showed, even then, that is sometimes not enough.

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