Stoke City will host relegation rivals Luton Town at the bet365 Stadium on Tuesday in their sixth-last Championship match of the season.
The home side are fifth last in 20th place with 43 points and are only two points and two places above the relegation zone, while Luton are in 23rd place with 39 points after they earned a point against Leeds United when they drew 1-1 on Saturday.
Match preview
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Stoke created numerous opportunities against Preston North End on April 5 – nearly 2.5 xG and five big chances – but they were somehow held to a 1-1 stalemate.
The Potters’ form of late has improved despite their draw last time out given they have won two and lost just one of their past four, whereas they had been beaten in three of their previous four.
Manager Mark Robins will want to avoid a repeat of his side’s reverse fixture against Luton when they lost 2-1 on December 10, a game in which they took a sixth-minute lead but created no big chances other than their goal.
The Potters’ record of 41 goals scored is in fact the joint third worst in the bottom nine, though they have netted nearly a quarter of that total (10) in their last eight in the Championship.
Stoke have won their past two in the league at home and are unbeaten in three, keeping two clean sheets in that time.
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Meanwhile, Luton held third-placed Leeds to a stalemate last time out, with two thirds of their total xG value (0.9) coming from Isaiah Jones‘s opening goal.
The Hatters have improved significantly at the back, with the club preventing their opponents from finding the back of the net three times in their five most recent outings, as many as times as they had in their prior 22.
Boss Matt Bloomfield‘s side are only two points behind 21st-placed Derby County, who they play on April 18, but they also face difficult tests against seventh-placed Coventry City and eighth-placed West Bromwich Albion in their final two games of the season.
The visitors boast a strong record in the past weeks having avoided defeat for four consecutive matches, winning on two occasions.
Luton have also emerged victorious in their last two away games, but they did lose 15 and draw one of their previous 16 on the road.
Team News
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Stoke come into Tuesday’s clash with an almost entirely available squad, though left-backs Enda Stevens and Josh Wilson-Esbrand may miss out due to a knock and leg injury respectively.
Eric Bocat is likely to retain his place on the left side of a back four, and he may be joined in defence by Junior Tchamadeu, Ashley Phillips and Ben Wilmot.
Jordan Thompson and Wouter Burger could be trusted in a double pivot, while attacking midfielder Lewis Baker is likely to play behind striker Sam Gallagher.
Luton are dealing with significantly more issues in their team, with centre-backs Teden Mengi and Tom Lockyer both ruled out, and their absences could lead to starts in a back three for Christ Makosso, Mark McGuinness and Amari’i Bell.
Liam Walsh, Thelo Aasgaard and Jordan Clark may feature in the middle of the pitch considering midfielders Marvelous Nakamba and Shandon Baptiste are unavailable.
Up front, forwards Elijah Adebayo and Jacob Brown are both injured, so expect Carlton Morris to be partnered by Millenic Alli.
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Tchamadeu, Phillips, Wilmot, Bocat; Thompson, Burger; Manhoef, Baker, Jun-Ho; Gallagher
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Makosso, McGuinness, Bell; Jones, Walsh, Aasgaard, Clark, Doughty; Morris, Alli
We say: Stoke City 1-1 Luton Town
It is difficult to separate the two sides given their performances have improved towards the end of the season.
With so much at stake for Stoke and Luton, the clubs are likely to take a cautious approach to Tuesday’s match, and that may lead to a game of few chances.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
