Can you put a price on Alexander Isak? ‘You have Haaland, you have Mbappe, but after that…’

Let’s get one thing straight. From a Newcastle United perspective, Alexander Isak is not for sale, not even in a loose, exploratory ‘let’s get a quantity surveyor in’ way.

Newcastle fans can feel justifiably angry by the notion that a team will waltz off with their No 9 with a flutter of eyelashes and a wad of cash. Isak is Newcastle’s best striker since Alan Shearer and is already one of the world’s elite forwards.

But such speculation is an inevitable by-product of success. Score the goals, lift the trophy, get the gossip. Even Lionel Messi had speculation every summer.

Currently, there is no solid indication that Newcastle’s resolve will be tested. Teams are interested, sure — Arsenal, Chelsea and Barcelona have not hidden their admiration. But Newcastle do not need to sell and Isak is not agitating to leave — and unless Newcastle fail to reach the Champions League, looks unlikely to do so.

With his contract not expiring until 2028, the sum needed to prise him away is likely to be so exorbitant that it prices competing clubs — all operating under the reality of acronyms such as PSR, FFP and APT — out of a move.

Newcastle got in early, buying Isak from Real Sociedad when the forward was affordable, enabling them to name their price at this point.

But what is that price?

Figures get thrown around — £80m, £100m, £150m, even £200m — as if a difference of tens of millions is pocket change. There are reasons for such disparities, beyond club bias or exchange rates, with value and price often being conflated.

“The value of a player is what they’re intrinsically worth, or what they would typically go for in an open, fair market based on their performance and age,” says Omar Chaudhuri, chief intelligence officer of sports consultancy Twenty First Group. “But price is ultimately dictated by market conditions, player contract status, and who the buyer is.

“You can have circumstances where, particularly for players as good as Isak, the market can be very particular. You might get some windows where none of the big clubs need a player in a certain position, so there is no real price for them above their market value.

“Or, you have windows where there are clubs in the market for a striker and that would drive up the price relative to the value, just like any other kind of asset that would be traded.”

It is worth keeping this in mind when speculating or justifying transfer fees.

The most important factor behind a player’s intrinsic value is their quality. Isak’s can be summarised rather briefly — he has proven he can score 20 goals per season in the highest-quality league in the world. His goals have kept Newcastle in the hunt for Champions League qualification. That is worth a lot of money.

But there are other factors. One is that the same player can be more valuable to certain clubs than others.

“The best example was Wilfried Zaha at Crystal Palace,” explains Chaudhuri. “Palace were just staying up each season and Zaha was clearly their standout player, in particular relative to his replacement level player in the squad.

“Palace weren’t exactly teeming with depth, so, according to the data, if they were to sell him, it would have changed their relegation odds by around 10, 15 per cent. That might not sound massive, but it’s significant, especially when you compound it over years regarding the revenue hit and valuation impact relegation would have had on the club.

“For other clubs who might have been in for Zaha, maybe upper-mid-table teams pushing for Europe, the likely improvement he could bring would not bring the same value.”

The significant drop-off to his replacements increases Isak’s value to Newcastle. Callum Wilson is 33 years old and, in recent seasons, has not stayed fit. Third-choice striker William Osula, 21, is yet to prove he is anything other than a prospect.

Wilson, Osula and Isak celebrate winning the Carabao Cup last month (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Value also fluctuates between potential buyers. For example, Isak’s value to a team such as Manchester City, who already have a goalscoring No 9 in Erling Haaland, is far lower than it is to a team such as Arsenal, who are lacking a bona fide strike option.

These factors underscore a central fact — value and price are relative terms, not absolute ones.

But usually, when we talk about what a player is worth, we mean price — the number haggled over during transfer negotiations.

One of the determining factors is contract length — if a player is near the end of their terms, a club will be more likely to sell them at a reduced price to avoid losing them on a free transfer. Isak’s contract runs until the summer of 2028, three years away, so that is not a major problem. The club will discuss terms over a new deal in the summer to protect Isak’s price.

“Newcastle aren’t under big-time pressure,” says one European sporting director. They, along with several other sources in this article, preferred to speak anonymously so they could speak candidly and avoid generating headlines linked to their club. “Whether it’s running for two years, three years, it’s pretty much the same. But if it’s two years and you don’t extend or sell, then by the time of the next window, there is just one year left and the price drops dramatically.”

According to Twenty First Group, if Isak left with less than two years left on his contract, they would expect his price to drop by around 20 per cent.

On a similar theme, a club’s FFP position can mean players are sold for a price that is less than their value. Newcastle feel this occurred last summer after selling Elliot Anderson to Nottingham Forest for a net £15m — accounting for the purchase of Odysseas Vlachodimos going the other way — in a last-minute scramble to comply with profit and sustainability rules (PSR).

During that period, Chelsea even made an opportunistic lowball bid for Isak to exploit Newcastle’s desperation, which was not entertained at St James’ Park. But this year, after failing to make a first-team signing for the last three windows, Newcastle are in a manageable PSR position, preserving a high price for Isak.

One source, who asked for clarity on Newcastle’s PSR status before answering questions on Isak’s current price, texted back: “Well then, other clubs had better buckle up.”

Other factors in the market are also in Newcastle’s favour — not least Isak’s ability compared to alternative options who may be available.

“The market for strikers is so thin,” says a recruitment director at a club in one of Europe’s top five leagues.

“English teams trust players more who have already played in the league. When I look at the top strikers in the market with a good age profile and who might be up for sale — Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, Victor Osimhen, Dusan Vlahovic, Joao Pedro, Benjamin Sesko — Isak stands out by far as the best one. That leads me to believe the price will be very high.”

“Look, he’s the hottest No 9 in the market right now,” says another sporting director, who had extensively scouted Isak for a previous club. “Maybe you have Haaland, you have Kylian Mbappe, but after that, you have Isak. Gyokeres is another hot prospect, but not as hot as Isak, which means Newcastle could make a real case for him being the best striker prospect in the world.”

Another thing, too. It may be that there is a clear best option in the market, but if there aren’t multiple clubs at the table interested in that position and with the ability to pay, the selling club’s ability to drive the price up past the player’s value is limited.

Historically, big-money player transfers account for roughly 15 to 18 per cent of the purchasing club’s revenue. For example, as Aurel Nazmiu, senior data scientist at Twenty First Group, points out, when Julian Alvarez moved to Atletico Madrid for €70million (£60m; $76m), this was 17 per cent of Atletico’s latest revenue figures, per Deloitte, of €410m. By this logic, if Isak moved to Arsenal, whose latest revenue stands at £613m, he may be expected to cost around £92m to £110m.

“If Isak were sold to Real Madrid, our value for him would be closer to £115m,” says Chaudhuri, who works alongside Nazmiu to help clubs quantify potential transfer market fees. “That’s based on Real Madrid’s financial firepower, how much they tend to pay for top players historically, and also accounting for Isak’s profile.

“Whereas if, in some hypothetical world, Newcastle were forced to sell him to a smaller team like Brentford for whatever reason, his expected price would be closer to £50m because Brentford have much less financial power.”

In Isak’s case, the latter scenario would not be a concern. The interested parties are all superclubs — for Newcastle, this is a double-edged sword. The bidders’ profile means the player is more likely to be unsettled, but if there is no agitation for a move, the selling club can weaponise the interested clubs’ wealth against each other to set the asking price eye-wateringly high.

Isak’s future may depend on Newcastle’s Champions League situation (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

“It wouldn’t surprise me if bids were getting close to £150m,” says the recruitment director. “Manchester United, Arsenal and potentially Chelsea need a striker desperately. If they start bidding against each other and Isak is de facto their No 1 target, they will go to astronomical numbers. Remember what happened with Declan Rice.” (Rice was bought by Arsenal for £100m plus £5m of add-ons in July 2023, outbidding Manchester City’s £90m offer.)

“Isak is as close to a complete striker as there is. It could be over £150m to actually get a deal done, especially seeing as Newcastle have no inclination to sell.”

In some cases, a player’s price can also be manipulated by a sell-on fee, which gives the selling club a percentage share of any future transfer. This is unlikely to affect Isak.

“A sell-on wouldn’t be interesting to Newcastle,” says the European sporting director. “If he was to join another club, it would be an absolutely top club, so he’d be unlikely to be sold anymore — and at that point, he’d be closer to 30. Maybe bonuses, related to winning the Champions League, the Club World Cup because there’s huge prize money, that sort of thing, might be more likely.”

For this sporting director, Isak’s age — he is 25 — is the only consideration which would slightly lower both his value and his price.

“He should cost around £100m,” he says. “He’s a No 9, a rare striker, proven at the highest level. But his age is not super young, or the fee would be even more. He’s 25 — obviously, there’s growth potential still there, but he’s not going to grow like a 19- or 20-year-old. So he’s more or less a finished product in his prime years.”

Chaudhuri agrees. “Isak is playing at an incredibly high level — we rank him at eighth in the world for performance. That’s the biggest factor in determining whether he’s a £50m player or a £100m player. But then the other main variation you have is age.

“Our most valuable player in the world is (Barcelona winger) Lamine Yamal because he’s 17, performing at a phenomenal level, and any team that buys him would get years and years of value. It’s similar, but to a slightly lesser extent, for players such as Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, and Vinicius Jr, who are all 24 or under. Isak is still youngish, but 25 is not super young.

“So we value Yamal at £200m, whereas Isak would be closer to £100m. As an attacker, we tend to see scoring rates peak at around 25 or 26. It’s not like what it used to be in the days of Michael Owen, where players would fall off a cliff in their late 20s, and we might expect someone like Isak with a reasonably good injury record to sustain form into the future — but he’s not a real upstart any more.”

These factors mean that Isak’s value — around £100m, by consensus — might be affordable to some clubs. But the transfer landscape and Newcastle’s resolve means that his price — possibly over £150m — is borderline unreachable.

The Athletic reported this month that Arsenal, wary of Isak’s stratospheric fee, are developing a strong interest in Sporting CP’s Gyokeres as an alternative. Barcelona are struggling financially. It is unclear whether Chelsea or Liverpool, two other clubs in the striker market, would be willing to spend that much on a single player.

So what is Isak’s true worth? In this market, it is close to whatever Newcastle say it is.

(Top photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)

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