This week’s European fixtures presented the English clubs with an opportunity to secure a fifth Champions League spot and the equation couldn’t have been simpler: one English win and the fifth team is in.
Arsenal got the job done at the first time of asking thanks to their spectacular humbling of Real Madrid at the Emirates Stadium, a win that leaves them poised to progress to the semi-finals of the Champions League.
At least five Premier League teams will be involved in Europe’s premier club competition next season. Let’s take a look at the state of play and assess the chances of the clubs at the top end of the table.
Which Premier League teams will qualify for the Champions League?
We’re taking the current top eight in the Premier League – with apologies to Brighton in ninth – because they’re all within six points and an assailable goal difference swing of fifth or better.
Let’s start at the top.
1. Liverpool
REMAINING FIXTURES
West Ham (H), Leicester (A), Spurs (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Brighton (A), Crystal Palace (H)
They might have had a couple of wobbles lately but Liverpool remain red-hot favourites to win a second title of the Premier League era. They’re 11 points clear with seven games to go.
FFT verdict The Reds are in. Liverpool should qualify as champions but the extra spot means they’re now 21 points and a whole load of goals ahead of the highest non-qualifying place with seven fixtures to play.
2. Arsenal
REMAINING FIXTURES
Brentford (H), Ipswich (A), Crystal Palace (H), Bournemouth (H), Liverpool (A), Newcastle (H), Southampton (A)
The Gunners have two qualification routes now yawning in front of them. Arsenal’s win against Real Madrid made them the new favourites for the Champions League according to Opta and they’re ten points clear of sixth in the Premier League.
Arsenal winning the Champions League would not create another extra place via the league.
FFT verdict One way or another, Arsenal’s Champions League spot will be safe for another season. Who needs centre forwards?
3. Nottingham Forest
REMAINING FIXTURES
Everton (H), Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (A)
This is where things get really interesting. Two-time European Cup winners Nottingham Forest sit in third in the Premier League, chasing down top-tier European football for the first time in the Champions League era. They’re five points clear of sixth with seven games to go.
FFT verdict Throw in an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City and that’s a pretty tricky run-in, but Forest have laughed in the face of expectations all season and they’re nicely positioned ahead of the chasing pack.
4. Chelsea
REMAINING FIXTURES
Ipswich (H), Fulham (A), Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H), Nottingham Forest (A)
Currently occupying fourth place but just one point above the first non-qualifying spot in sixth, Chelsea’s position looks precarious and the team below them, Newcastle United, are higher in the form table.
FFT verdict Chelsea could be the beneficiaries of the extra Champions League place but an upturn in form would help settle the nerves with Newcastle, Man City and Aston Villa breathing down their necks.
5. Newcastle United
REMAINING FIXTURES
Manchester United (H), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A), Ipswich (H), Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
Newcastle have a game in hand on the rest of the top eight and currently occupy the fifth Champions League spot. The Magpies are riding the crest of a wave and should be looking up the Premier League table rather than being too concerned about Man City, Villa and Fulham behind them
FFT verdict It’s hard to look past Newcastle when it comes to picking five Champions League qualifiers. They’re one of only two teams in the top half to have won their last three Premier League fixtures. If they win their game in hand too, they’ll go fourth.
6. Manchester City
REMAINING FIXTURES
Crystal Palace (H), Everton (A), Aston Villa (H), Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
Qualifying for the Champions League might seem scant consolation for Manchester City at the end of a bizarre season, but Pep Guardiola will see it as the bare minimum. If that means grabbing the fifth spot and lifting the FA Cup for silverware salvation, so be it.
FFT verdict If Newcastle finish in the top four, that all-important fifth spot could easily come down to Chelsea and City. With the Southampton freebie on offer for Guardiola’s side, it really is too close to call.
7. Aston Villa
REMAINING FIXTURES
Southampton (A), Newcastle (H), Man City (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Spurs (H), Manchester United (A)
Unai Emery and Aston Villa hold the key to a possible sixth Champions League spot. If they finish outside the top five in the league and win the Champions League, they’ll join the top five in the competition again next season.
Tottenham Hotspur or Man United winning the Europa League would also create a sixth – or seventh – Champions League place.
FFT verdict Still battling away on three fronts as FA Cup semi-finalists, qualifying for the Champions League could prove a double opportunity spoiled by divided attentions. But Villa have won their last three, so don’t rule out a miraculous end to the season.
8. Fulham
REMAINING FIXTURES
Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Southampton (A), Aston Villa (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Manchester City (H)
What a job Marco Silva is doing at Fulham. Currently in eighth place and three points behind Villa in seventh, the Cottagers need to put a run together to bring their efforts to fruition at the end of the season.
FFT verdict Fulham are an outside bet for Champions League qualification but they’re still in touch and lots of teams would have taken that at the start of the season. Sheer weight of numbers ahead of them will likely end any Champions League hopes.
