Two sides separated by just a point in the Primeira Liga standings will square off on Saturday, as Famalicao welcome Estoril Praia to Estadio Municipal for a round 29 showdown.
The hosts sit seventh with 40 points, while their visitors trail two places behind, heightening the stakes of what promises to be a tightly contested encounter.
Match preview
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Famalicao took a significant step towards securing their stay in the top flight last weekend after battling to a 2-1 victory at Arouca.
Goalkeeper Lazar Carevic kept his side in the contest during a hectic opening half-hour, making a string of vital stops, including a penalty save, before Hugo Oliveira‘s men broke the deadlock through Oscar Aranda‘s cheeky panenka from the spot in the 35th minute.
Arouca found themselves with a second opportunity from 12 yards and made it count through Henrique Araujo, who levelled in the 71st minute, but it took only five minutes for the visitors to respond in style as Mirko Topic came off the bench to lash home a sublime half volley that sealed Villa Nova’s second win on the bounce.
It has been a tale of revival for Famalicao, who emerged from a winless spell between November 9 and January 25 that stretched across nine league matches and 10 in all competitions to now register six victories in their last nine outings.
With six games left and a healthy 17-point cushion over the relegation playoff spot, just one more win would mathematically secure top-flight safety for Oliveira’s side, who can now dream of bettering their best-ever Primeira Liga finish of sixth in the 2019-20 season.
While a top-four push appears far-fetched given their 16-point gap behind fourth-placed Porto, hopes of a top-five finish remain alive, with only six points separating Famalicao from Santa Clara in fifth.
Saturday presents an opportunity on home turf against an opponent they have beaten in two of their last three meetings at Estadio Municipal, although the most recent encounter finished in a 1-1 draw.
Famalicao are currently on a five-match unbeaten run at the ground, having won the last three in a row and kept four clean sheets during this stretch, with only one goal conceded.
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Estoril Praia, like their hosts, are on the verge of safety, sitting on 39 points and holding a 16-point buffer above the drop zone, a position they consolidated following last weekend’s convincing 3-0 win at AVS, who currently occupy the playoff place.
The Canarinhos got off to a flying start at Estadio do CD Aves as Andre Lacximicant struck twice in the 20th and 30th minutes before completing his hat-trick just four minutes after the break to end a four-match winless streak.
That performance extended Estoril’s impressive run of finding the net in 13 straight matches, a streak that could pose problems for Famalicao’s resolute backline, although defensive frailties remain a concern as the clean sheet against AVS was their first in 10 matches.
Ian Cathro‘s men have scored 38 times in the league, with only Vitoria Guimaraes registering more among teams outside the top four, while Estoril have conceded 43 goals, the most among the top half of the table.
Interestingly, a large share of their output at both ends has come on their travels, where the Canaries have struck 20 times – two more than they have managed at home – while conceding 24, which is five more than they have allowed on their own patch, setting the tone for what promises to be an open contest.
Victory for Estoril would mark the first time they have claimed three straight wins in this fixture, having already prevailed in the last two encounters, including a 2-1 success in the reverse match.
Team News
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Ivan Zlobin is back to full fitness and may be considered for a start between the sticks, although Carevic’s heroics last time out make him the favourite to retain his place.
Having come off the bench to score the winner, Topic could be rewarded with a starting berth in midfield in place of either Tom van de Looi or Mathias de Amorim.
Pedro Bondo made his senior debut last weekend and could be in line for a start at left-back if Oliveira opts to give Rafa Soares a rest.
As for the visitors, the return of Pedro Alvaro to central defence means Eliaquim Mangala and Philippe Kevin Lanquetin are likely to settle for places on the bench.
Lacximicant’s hat-trick has surely earned him another start in the number nine role, and the forward will be keen to build on his tally of four goals.
Meanwhile, first-choice goalkeeper Joel Robles remains sidelined with injury, meaning Kevin Chamorro is expected to start between the sticks once again.
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Ceravic; Soares, Mihaj, Haas, Pinheiro; Looi, Topic; Aranda, Sa, Sorriso; Elisor
Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:
Chamoro; Alvaro, Boma, Bacher; Pina, Xeka, Holsgrove, Amaral; Carvalho, Laxcimicant, Begraoui
We say: Famalicao 2-1 Estoril Praia
This one promises to be an engaging affair given Estoril’s knack for finding the net on the road, and although Famalicao have been defensively resolute, they did concede in their last outing at the Municipal to an AVS side not known for their attacking fluency.
Nonetheless, the hosts are backed to edge it, fuelled by their impressive run on home soil, which swings momentum in their favour.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
