Holstein Kiel could move off the bottom of the Bundesliga table in Saturday’s gameweek 29 clash against St Pauli at Holstein-Stadion.
The visitors, currently in 15th place, are four points clear of Heidenheim in the relegation playoff spot and come into this weekend looking to secure a fifth consecutive win over their hosts across all competitions.
Match preview
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Struggling Kiel have a chance to leapfrog VfL Bochum this weekend and possibly reduce the gap on 16th-placed Heidenheim, who sit in the relegation playoff position.
The Storks, in their maiden Bundesliga season, have had a mixed campaign, claiming four wins in 28 matches heading into this weekend.
While three of those victories have been in front of their supporters, Marcel Rapp‘s men have not secured a win at Holstein-Stadion since mid-January, when they defeated Borussia Dortmund 4-2, thus recording consecutive victories on home soil.
Since that success over BVB, however, Kiel’s only win in 11 games has been a 1-0 triumph at Union Berlin in March, highlighting the bottom-placed club’s struggles.
Further compounding their challenge to remain in the league is their lack of clean sheets this season, with the shutout against Berlin being the club’s second successful defensive effort after November’s 1-0 victory over Heidenheim.
Although the 18th-placed team have scored more goals than those in the bottom five — Hoffenheim (34), St Pauli (23), Heidenheim (32) and Bochum (28) — their total of 39 goals is undermined by the worst defensive record in the league, having conceded 68, nine more than second-worst Bochum (59).
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Therefore, this weekend’s opponents will look to exploit their hosts’ defensive weaknesses, aiming to go consecutive games without losing and potentially secure a fifth straight win against Kiel.
While Alexander Blessin‘s men are eight points above the bottom team, the Kiezkicker are just four clear of 16th-placed Heidenheim and six points ahead of Bochum with six matches remaining, indicating that survival is far from guaranteed.
Nevertheless, the 15th-placed have been tough to beat in the last month, as evidenced by just one defeat in four matches — a 3-2 loss to Bayern Munich — even if Blessin will hope his side can find ways to secure maximum points to ensure their top-flight status.
This season’s trend of rarely finding the back of the net suggests that St Pauli, having scored the fewest goals (23) in the Bundesliga, are unlikely to engage in end-to-end, high-scoring games.
However, their total of 34 goals conceded far betters every team in the bottom half and many in the top half, with only Bayern (27) and Mainz 05 (32) allowing fewer this season.
Having already kept eight clean sheets, the sixth-best record in the top flight, a ninth could guarantee St Pauli the points as they seek a fifth consecutive victory over Kiel.
Team News
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While Lewis Holtby (thigh) will be evaluated before Saturday, Kiel will be without several players due to injury or suspension, including Patrick Erras (concussion), Andu Yobel Kelati (knee), Colin Kleine-Bekel (knee), Ivan Nekic (muscular), Benedikt Pichler (muscular) and David Zec (suspended).
Despite the broader struggles of the team, Phil Harres, Shuto Machino and Steven Skrzybski have scored eight, seven and six goals, respectively, showcasing the presence of multiple match-winners.
Blessin is unlikely to have Sascha Burchert (groin), Karol Mets (knee), James Sands (ankle) and Simon Zoller (muscular) available due to injury.
Although St Pauli’s leading goalscorers may not match Kiel’s, Morgan Guilavogui (five goals) and Johannes Eggestein (three) have netted crucial goals, emphasising the importance of their contributions.
Oladapo Afolayan also scored a late equaliser in the previous week’s draw with Gladbach, bringing him to three goals this season, and the forward could be an option off the bench for the away side.
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Dahne; Becker, Ivezic, Komenda; Rosenboom, Gigovic, Remberg, Tolkin; Skrzybski; Bernhardsson, Machino
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Nemeth, Wahl, Van der Heyden; Saliakas, Irvine, Smith, Treu; Sinani; Weisshaupt, Guilavogui
We say: Holstein Kiel 1-1 St Pauli
Although Blessin’s St Pauli side have rarely conceded this season, their lack of attacking output means success is not guaranteed.
Consequently, both teams could share the spoils on Sunday, ending Kiel’s losing streak in this fixture.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
