The Briefing: Two seasons hang by a thread, Forest’s top-five wobble, and a managerial masterstroke

Welcome to The Briefing, where every Monday during this season, The Athletic will discuss three of the biggest questions to arise from the weekend’s Premier League football.

This was the weekend when Liverpool recovered from a late blow to beat West Ham United, Arsenal dropped more points, Newcastle United continued to stride on, and Leicester City collected a rare point, their first since the end of January.

Here, we will ask if bleak defeats for Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United will impact their last chance of salvaging something from this season, whether the race for the top five has taken a decisive turn, and if there has been a better decision this season than Wolverhampton Wanderers appointing Vitor Pereira.

Can Tottenham or Man United salvage their seasons?

The thing about football is that a season doesn’t really have to go that well for it to be successful.

Take Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, for example. In the league, things could not really have gone worse. Both are on course for their worst Premier League finishes and lowest points totals and that’s not even factoring in the intangible despair among the respective fanbases.

Since Ruben Amorim became United manager in November, they have won six league games, three of which came against the teams who will be relegated. Tottenham have won four games since the turn of the year: in fact, since they beat Manchester City 4-0 in November — arguably their last properly convincing win — only the bottom three have a worse record than them.

Both were knocked out of the FA Cup fairly early, too. Spurs fared better in the Carabao Cup, reaching the semi-finals, beating United on the way, but ultimately lost to Liverpool.

All of the above is true, but at the same time, this season could end in success if either of them wins the Europa League.

It will not only bring prestige and a nice chunk of money but access to next season’s Champions League, which comes with even more prestige and even more money. These are two clubs that currently look like they’re spiralling with little prospect of improving next season, but with the cache and cash the Champions League brings, it will help their quest for improvement enormously.

Should they face each other in the final — they’re on opposite sides of the draw, so that is possible — then anyone who only pays vague attention to English football might think these are two of the Premier League’s finest. But those of us who have been watching them all season will wonder what the rest of Europe has been doing to let these two rolling bin fires beat them.

All of which means that Thursday represents the biggest night that either of these two have had all season, perhaps for a little while before that, too.

Win and they are a step closer to not just salvaging something from this season but setting themselves up for better times next year, too. Lose and the last few weeks are going to be even bleaker than the rest of it, which is saying something. It will almost certainly contribute to the demise of Tottenham head coach Ange Postecoglou, and Amorim will have quite a job convincing people that things will improve under him.

They prepared pretty abysmally for such a pivotal evening with their results on Sunday, shipping eight goals between them and producing performances that meant it could have been a lot worse.

Both go into their Europa League second legs level, thus theoretically in a fairly decent position to progress. But having watched them this weekend — and, really, for most of the season — would you trust either of them to do it?

Are Forest in danger of missing out on the Champions League?

Nottingham Forest’s more nervous fans might be feeling a familiar prickling sensation in the back of their minds.

In 2019-20, they were cruising to a play-off place in the Championship. The Covid-19 enforced break in the season threw their form off, but going into the last two games of the season, they only required a point to secure a top-six spot. Only a cataclysmic collapse would keep them from the play-offs.

You can guess what happened next.

Cut to this season, and a couple of weeks ago, a Champions League place looked pretty nailed on for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side, with them having been sat in the top five continuously since December 7, but back-to-back defeats by Aston Villa and Everton have made that much less certain. Is this a blip or a sign that a similar collapse is just starting?

Either way, it has helped to enhance a pretty remarkable tussle for the three remaining Champions League places below Liverpool and Arsenal. Forest are still third, but only just: three points now separate five teams, with Newcastle holding a game in hand (this Wednesday, at home to Crystal Palace) on those around them.

Villa and Newcastle have both won four games on the spin, which, in a season when most teams have struggled with consistency, counts as brilliant form. Manchester City are still a little wobbly but did superbly to come back from 2-0 down against Palace this weekend.

At this exact moment, based on very short-term form, Chelsea and Forest look the most vulnerable, but that could change dramatically in the final few weeks of the season. And it could change from week to week.

It’s a much-needed source of interest or, if you want to use this word, ‘narrative’. The title race has been over for months, as has the identity of the relegated three. You would be forgiven for losing enthusiasm for the Premier League, but as these five teams tumble towards the finish, there is something to keep your attention.

Is Wolves’ Pereira appointment one of the season’s best decisions?

When Wolves sacked Gary O’Neil in December, it felt like they chose his replacement with indecent haste.

Vitor Pereira was the immediate favourite and was in place four days later. He arrived from Saudi Arabia, which was his fifth job in four years, including a couple of patchy years in Brazil and a calamitous return to Fenerbahce.

People who worked with him at Fenerbahce were… unconvinced, to say the least, of his suitability for the Premier League. But then again, the chaotic nature of Turkish football is perhaps not the most reliable barometer of a manager’s talents.

Because of all the managerial changes made in the Premier League this season, he has been the most successful by a mile.

When he was appointed, Wolves were second-bottom, five points adrift of Leicester and safety: they’re now 17 points ahead of Leicester. In a league table of games since then, they would be eighth. Only the current top four have won more games in that time. Of the six games they’ve lost, five were to teams who have either secured or are competing for Champions League places. Six, if you’re particularly optimistic about Fulham’s prospects.

Vitor Pereira has become a popular figure with Wolves fans (Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images)

He’s brought more certainty to the Wolves team, sticking with a 3-4-3 system that, for the most part, suits his players. They are much more aggressive and less reliant on their best player, Matheus Cunha – they have won their past four games and the Brazilian hasn’t started any of them.

Compare all of that to the other teams who have changed managers: Leicester have got worse by magnitudes, Southampton have hardly changed, and if West Ham have improved, it’s been barely noticeable. And then there’s Manchester United, who, well, see above. Everton have clearly improved massively, but Pereira deserves more credit because this was so unexpected. The Toffees’ season has basically panned out exactly as you might expect under David Moyes, but few saw a turnaround this emphatic from Wolves.

Who knows whether this will translate to further success next season? His past record suggests he doesn’t tend to stay in one place for long, but the job he’s done since arriving at Molineux has been magnificent.

Coming up

• Look, nobody is going to judge you for missing the odd game. We all have interests other than football. It won’t be the end of the world if you don’t watch absolutely everything. With that in mind, if you find yourself giving Bournemouth vs Fulham a miss on Monday night, don’t worry, I won’t tell anyone.
• In theory, this midweek brings a banging set of Champions League games, but let’s be honest: the ties are all pretty much over, aren’t they? On Tuesday, Aston Villa will be trying to overturn a 3-1 deficit to Paris Saint-Germain, while Borussia Dortmund host Barcelona after the first leg ended 4-0 to the Catalans. A couple of tall orders and no mistake.
• And then on Wednesday: Real Madrid will believe they can overhaul Arsenal’s 3-0 advantage in the Bernabeu, while Bayern Munich have the best chance of turning things around as they travel to Milan, only 2-1 down to Inter.
• Also on Wednesday: some bonus Premier League. This is Newcastle’s game in hand on most of the teams around them, against Crystal Palace, as they hunt for a Champions League place.
• Thursday. Ooof, Thursday. A couple of seasons could be over if Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur don’t get through in the Europa League: in theory, United are in a decent spot at Old Trafford, having drawn in Lyon, while Spurs are also all square with Eintracht Frankfurt, but you wouldn’t be quite so confident of them getting through, with an away tie to come.
• In the other quarters, Bodo/Glimt go to Rome with a remarkable 2-0 lead over Lazio in their back pocket, while Athletic Club vs Rangers is basically a one-game shootout after the first leg ended 0-0.
• In the Conference League, Chelsea should complete the formalities, having beaten Legia Warsaw 3-0 last week.

(Top photos: Getty Images)

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