‘Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League if they win their next four matches.’ Sounds simple, doesn’t it?
With less than a month remaining in the 2024/25 Premier League season, the Blues find themselves fifth and on the cusp of success.
It’s a position in the table that now provides the illustrious reward of playing in European club football’s principal and iconic tournament.
Champions League football doesn’t just provide financial riches such as the near-£2billion total prize pot for this season’s competition.
There’s also the status of being one of world football’s leading clubs, a tag that Chelsea have missed out on for a second consecutive year.
A return to the elite level can be confirmed in the coming weeks but if statistics have any influence on reality, their efforts could be in vain.
Football analytics experts Opta give Chelsea a 42.12 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season, making them statistically more likely to miss out.
Whilst this figure means reaching the promised land is by no means a certainty, it’s not low enough for any remaining hope to be quashed.
However, it’s the lowest prediction out of all the teams who currently sit inside the Premier League top six.
Liverpool, who were crowned champions on Sunday, have a 100 per cent chance of qualifying ahead of second-placed Arsenal on 99.93.
Newcastle United are third and have an 80.88 per cent chance, although Manchester City boast the more favourable 94.11 in fourth.
Even Nottingham Forest, who will overtake Chelsea with at least a draw against Brentford tonight, have a 72.35 per cent chance.
The Blues therefore face an uphill battle with their predicted number, one that accurately represents their upcoming fixture list.
Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge on Sunday to host Liverpool, a side they haven’t beaten in all competitions since March 2021.
Arne Slot’s visitors may have sealed the title but they will be pushing to win all 12 remaining points to take their season-end tally to 94.
Once the champions have been played, the Blues travel to St. James’ Park to face fellow Champions League chasers Newcastle.
Chelsea won the reverse fixture 2-1 in October but were then beaten 2-0 by the Magpies three days later in the Carabao Cup last 16.
Stamford Bridge will host Premier League football for the final time this season on May 16 when the Blues meet Manchester United.
Given United are 14th, the fixture seems easy on paper but Chelsea have only beaten them on two occasions in seven seasons.
And then on the final day of the Premier League season, Forest will welcome the Blues for a potentially decisive fixture.
There’s a real possibility that whoever wins at the City Ground will claim the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot.
Chelsea’s crucial four-match run-in
May 4 – Chelsea vs Liverpool – Stamford Bridge
May 11 – Newcastle vs Chelsea – St. James’ Park
May 16 – Chelsea vs Manchester United – Stamford Bridge
May 25 – Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea – City Ground
Chelsea currently have a superior goal difference so if the two sides finish level on points, then they will take the position.
But there’s also a chance that dropped points against Liverpool, Newcastle and United will put them out of contention before then.
Furthermore, their rivals for Champions League qualification may be more confident in their fixture lists than Chelsea will be.
With Liverpool already there and Arsenal set to follow soon barring a dramatic dip, Newcastle are the next side in control of their fate.
They will come up against ninth-placed Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and 15th-placed Everton.
City play 13th-placed Wolves, the already relegated Southampton, tenth-placed Bournemouth and eighth-placed Fulham.
After Brentford, it’s 12th-placed Crystal Palace, the second relegated side Leicester City, 17th-placed West Ham and Chelsea.
Aston Villa are also contenders in seventh, although Opta predict they have only a 10.6 per cent chance of qualifying.
They meet Fulham, Bournemouth, 16th-placed Tottenham and United in their final four league fixtures.
So, Champions League qualification is in Chelsea’s hands, but it’s a task that’s a lot easier said than done.
A quarter-final exit to Real Madrid in the 2022/23 season is the last time the two-time winners played in the competition.
There was no European football in the previous campaign but they’ve made their Conference League debut this time round.
Chelsea have scored 33 goals, conceded eight and lost just once in all ten of their fixtures en route to the semi-finals.
Swedish side Djurgarden host them in the first leg tonight, with the Blues favourites to go all the way to the final on May 28.
Victory would secure a Europa League spot, but they could seal their Champions League three days before with a top five finish.
