The regular Championship season will come to its close with Saturday’s 12:30pm kick-offs, and there’s something on the line in plenty of games up and down the division.
The top two may already be decided, but it remains to be seen who will end the season in the play-off places and who will be heading down into League One.
Here’s what’s at stake on what promises to be a compelling final day.
Automatic promotion
OK, easy one. Leeds United and Burnley are already up. Either or both would finish on 100 points by winning on the final day, so the only minor question is who will go up to the Premier League as champions.
Leeds hold a significant goal difference advantage as they make the long trip to already-relegated Plymouth, while Burnley face a tough test at home to a Millwall side with far more to play for…
Play-offs
Sheffield United will definitely finish third and Sunderland will definitely finish fourth. That much we know for sure.
That means there’s two more play-off places still up for grabs, and any two of five sides could still earn the right to play in the semi-finals.
Bristol City (67 points) are in the driver’s seat. If they beat struggling Preston at Ashton Gate, they will definitely stay fifth.
Any less than that, and it’s wide open. Coventry City and Millwall sit right behind them with 66 points each, with Frank Lampard’s Sky Blues currently sixth on goal difference – they’re four better off than Millwall on that score.
As you already know, Millwall will be away to Burnley – but Coventry’s situation is complicated by the fact they will host ninth-placed Middlesbrough (64 points) on the final day, with Boro just two points behind Coventry.
That means if Coventry win, then the only way they could miss out on the play-offs would be if Millwall beat Burnley by such a massive margin that it overhauled the four-goal gap in goal difference. That is very unlikely, given Burnley have conceded just 15 goals in 45 games so far.
A draw between Coventry and Middlesbrough would count Boro out of the conversation and leave Coventry to cross their fingers that a) both Millwall and eighth-placed Blackburn Rovers (65 points) fail to win, or b) only one of Millwall and Blackburn win and Bristol City lose, which would put Coventry above the Robins on goal difference.
Millwall’s situation is pretty straightforward. They realistically need to better Coventry’s result, and/or win while Bristol City lose.
Blackburn have won their last four in a row and go away to Sheffield United, who as we know have absolutely nothing to play for.
With a superior goal difference but fewer points than Bristol City, Millwall and Coventry, for Blackburn to finish in the top six they need to either a) better the result of both Millwall and Coventry, or b) win while Bristol City lose and either Coventry or Millwall fail to win.
However, Middlesbrough have by far the best goal difference of the five contenders, so a win for them at Coventry would be enough to get them into the top six if at least two out of these three things happen: a) Bristol City lose, b) Millwall fail to win, and/or c) Blackburn fail to win.
The upshot is that any two of the contenders could make it into the play-offs together except for Coventry and Middlesbrough, whose progress to the semi-finals is of course mutually exclusive.
Relegation
If you thought the play-off picture was complicated, wait until you hear this.
Plymouth Argyle and Cardiff City are both relegated already, so we can get that out of the way.
Beyond that…it’s anybody’s guess, with just two points separating third-from-bottom Hull City (48 points) from 18th-placed Stoke City (50 points). Sitting in between them are Derby County, Preston North End and Luton Town, all of whom are on 49 points.
The simplest scenario is that if Hull City lose away to Portsmouth, the Tigers would definitely be relegated. The flipside to that is that everyone except for Hull would definitely be safe with a win, regardless of the other results.
However, a draw could be enough to keep Hull up, thanks to their not-so-bad goal difference. They would definitely be better off than a beaten Luton (away to West Brom) and/or Preston (away to Bristol City), and possibly Derby, if County were beaten by at least three goals at home to Stoke.
A victory for either Stoke or Derby in that head-to-head encounter would make the winners definitely safe and leave the loser to rely on results elsewhere. Stoke would also definitely be safe with a draw as that would guarantee they stayed a point ahead of Derby.
Despite their poor goal difference, Stoke can only go down if a) they lose to Derby, and b) Preston get at least a draw, and c) Luton and Hull both win. (That’s unless Stoke get battered by at least six goals, in which case Luton would overtake them with a draw.)
With the best goal difference in the cohort, the Rams realistically only need to at least match the result of either Luton or Hull to stay up. They also have a three-goal advantage over Preston, which could come in handy.
Preston would definitely be safe if they at least match Hull’s result, and realistically goal difference means North End cannot be caught by Luton either as long as they at least match the Hatters’ result.
With the worst goal difference of the threatened teams, to stay up Luton realistically need either to at least match Hull’s result, or to better the result of either Preston or Derby. (Again, that’s unless that extremely unlikely Derby 6-0 Stoke scoreline comes in, in which case Luton would be fine with a draw.)
