Championship: It’s Leeds or Burnley’s trophy but who is going down?
Win at the all-but-relegated Plymouth Argyle and Leeds will be crowned champions on Saturday lunchtime. Burnley are level with them on points and amazingly, both can finish by reaching triple figure but with a goal difference 13 better than Burnley, it is in Leeds’ hands. They just need to match Burnley’s result against Millwall, but any slip up and Scott Parker’s side will be lifting the trophy instead.
Leeds are unbeaten in nine and in brushing aside Bristol City 4-0 on Monday night, made it five victories in a row ahead of facing Argyle. I’ll be working from Burnley’s Turf Moor on Saturday but it’s all set up for Leeds and I can’t see them falling at this final hurdle.
With the play-offs, we are looking at five clubs fighting for two spots. Sheffield United and Sunderland are already there but it’s been unrelenting. Bristol City and Coventry City are both wobbling with successive defeats and that has opened the door to the others. Millwall lead the charge and have popped up from nowhere. From the last 10 games, they’re the form side after Burnley and Leeds but now having to go to Burnley on the final day, with their title challenge and 32 game unbeaten run, this is the last game Millwall needed.
Trying to get through that door too are Blackburn Rovers and Middlesbrough. It’s ridiculous really! When Boro beat Rovers 2-0 at the start of April, the mood at Ewood Park was mutinous. But a draw and then four victories on the bounce mean Blackburn are still in the hunt but they will have a tough task playing away at Sheffield United.
And here is where it gets interesting! Middlesbrough trail by two points but a goal difference of +10 gives them the edge and, would you believe it, they go to Coventry City in a game that essentially becomes a play-off for the play-offs!
Prediction: I’ve given it the big sell… but I think it will stay as it is! Coventry’s fans are superb on the big occasion, and I’ll think they’ll roar them home. Bristol City will join them in dreaming of the Premier League, especially when we see who they’re playing.
Relegation hot take: Preston to go down
Results have played out exactly as I thought they would since my ‘brave’ prediction last week. North End haven’t been in the relegation zone since September but their wretched run continued last Saturday. In giving Plymouth Argyle just their second away win all season, they made it a fourth successive defeat. Their last victory was seven games ago and they have two since January. Losing goalkeeper Freddie Woodman to an ankle injury he picked up in the gym in March left them exposed and I can’t see them picking up points at Bristol City.
Cardiff are already relegated and Argle’s shambolic goal difference means they’ll be joining them in League One, despite a magnificent overall turnaround under Miron Muslić. Argyle will bounce back. Cardiff are in a tailspin.
The final spot is between Hull, Luton, Preston, Derby and Stoke. Derby’s brilliant back-to-back victories mean safety is in their hands. Pride Park will be rocking, and I think they’ll get the three points to rubber stamp survival, with Stoke glad they reached 50 points when they did. Their 6-0 hammering by Leeds was followed up by falling at home to Sheffield United. Mark Robins has a lot of remedial work to do over the summer.
Having had such a strange season, where performances have often not reflected their results, Luton finally climbed out of the relegation places with a chaotic 90th minute winner over Coventry City. They have everything to play for at The Hawthorns when they face a managerless West Brom side who have let their season peter out. I can see Matt Bloomfield’s side heading back down the M6 with a win and raucous celebrations when they get back to Bedfordshire.
Hull City occupy the final relegation place and their home defeat to Derby has left them in the mire. Thankfully for Ruben Selles, they go to a Portsmouth side that will be in a party mood after John Mousinho masterminded their survival with several games to spare. Even struggling Hull should be able to get a point at a relaxed Fratton Park, and it’s for these reasons that, unfortunately, I’m sticking with my Preston prediction.
League One – Birmingham’s record haul, Reading defying the odds and cheers to Bowyer’s Burton
Champions Birmingham have already secured a record EFL points haul thanks to their midweek win at Blackpool. They can make it 111 points as they lift the title at relegated Cambridge.
Wrexham have secured second and Stockport, Wycombe and Charlton are in the play-offs. But, will it be Leyton Orient or Reading joining them? Orient’s superior goal difference edges out Reading ahead of their trip to Huddersfield.
Reading’s financial crisis continues to see them risking EFL expulsion, which makes their efforts one of the stories of the season. I think they’ll get victory over Barnsley but unfortunately for them, Huddersfield are well and truly on the beach. They were insipid as I saw them fall to Cambridge last month and I think Richie Wellens’ Orient will have no problems despatching Huddersfield and securing that final play-off spot.
At the other end, Shrewsbury, Cambridge, Bristol Rovers, and Crawley have already been relegated.
Crawley’s late surge was too little too late with the four relegated clubs having miserable campaigns. But they can all feel somewhat aggrieved at just how brilliant Burton have been under Gary Bowyer. Bottom in mid-January and eleven points from safety, their 1-1 draw with Wigan confirmed safety with a game to spare. For the Brewers, Bowyer is the toast of the town.
League Two – Doncaster or Port Vale for the title, promotion madness and Carlisle’s calamity
Last Saturday was fantastic. I was at Doncaster reporting on the radio on their epic promotion winning match with Bradford City. With 38 goals between them, their front four have fired them up the charts but it was 39-year-old Billy Sharp, in his fourth spell with the club, who bagged what would be the winner. They lead Port Vale in the race for the title by a single point. The Valiants had their own promotion party last weekend too though, thanks to a battling 2-0 victory at Wimbledon.
Now it’s time to get your calculators out! Doncaster go to Notts County, who still have an outside chance of automatic promotion, whilst Vale host Gillingham, who have nothing to play for. Port Vale trail by a point, so they need to better Doncaster’s result. If Vale draw and Doncaster lose by two goals, then they’ll have the same points and goal difference. Next to settle it is goals scored, and that’s where that Donny front four of Molyneux, Clifton, Gibson and Street give them the edge. Vale have 65 goals this campaign but Doncaster are six better on 71.
Three go up in League Two and this is where it gets even messier! Walsall may have led the table by 12 points but their drop off once loanee Nathan Lowe returned to Stoke City in January has meant promotion is now out of their hands. Bradford will be promoted with a win or a draw, if 13-winless Walsall fail to get three points at Crewe. I can’t see Bradford losing at home to Fleetwood but even then, they can still go up if Walsall lose and Notts County can’t beat Doncaster!
The final two play-off places are between Wimbledon, Salford, Grimsby, Chesterfield and Colchester. With Grimsby playing Wimbledon, it means one of them will definitely make the play-offs.
This is all too close to call. Salford are in the box seat, and it depends on what performance Carlisle put in, in what will be their final EFL appearance after joining Morecambe in being relegated out of the league.
Morecambe have been beleaguered on and off the pitch. Carlisle’s owners say lessons will be learned over a calamitous campaign that’s seen them suffer back-to-back relegations. Allowing Mike Williamson to bring in 11 players in the January transfer window, only to sack him almost immediately afterwards was one such aberration. I hope Mark Hughes stays on and gives their suffering supporters something to cheer this time next year.
And there you have it. I’ve tried to predict the unpredictable across three divisions and could well be completely out of my depth but, at least, you’re now ready to jump in!
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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