Real Madrid has a legitimate reason for trying to get Trent Alexander-Arnold out of his Liverpool contract slightly early, with the Club World Cup set to take place in the summer. But the nominal bid it is preparing almost feels as though it is designed to underscore just how much of a payday the Reds are missing out on.
While Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk were probably the two renewals Liverpool most wanted done in terms of their influence on the pitch, both stars are in their 30s. Alexander-Arnold is walking away just as he enters his prime years, which is nothing short of a financial nightmare for FSG.
In fairness to the owners, the decision was made in January to rebuff an approach from Real Madrid worth up to $20 million, with Liverpool prioritizing the stability of Arne Slot’s team as it competed for multiple honors. But it will be galling to see him leave for essentially nothing.
To be precise, Real Madrid is now offering around $1.1 million to get Alexander-Arnold out of his Liverpool contract in time for the Club World Cup. It is undoubtedly a slap in the face.
Having said that, while the offer feels derisory, it’s actually not bad for Liverpool — it has no use for Alexander-Arnold once the season has ended, but can bank a fee just by waiving a period where he would have been on holiday anyway. It will also save on around a month of his wages.
But these are trifling benefits compared to what Liverpool could theoretically have earned by selling Alexander-Arnold under normal market conditions. While estimates vary, it is clear that he is a highly valuable player.
Transfermarkt is one of the most widely-used proxies for player transfer values, having even been cited in court cases. It produces an aggregated figure based on estimates from the community, and takes into account a variety of factors.
(Image: Getty Images)
Contract length does play some part in the estimate (although it isn’t one of the main factors), so its current figure for Alexander-Arnold is likely to be on the low side for that reason. But the site places the Liverpool vice-captain’s value at a little over $80 million (£64 million). It’s a similar story at Fotmob. It values Alexander-Arnold at $82 million (£61 million).
Staying within the same ballpark, SofaScore plumps for the marginally more generous valuation of $87 million (£66 million). FootballTransfers, clearly leaning more on the contract situation, drops significantly down to $63 million (£47 million).
Liverpool could likely have recouped somewhere around the upper range of these figures if it had sold Alexander-Arnold last summer, with a year left to run on his contract. But even that would have been significantly influenced by the looming threat of a free transfer.
Hypothetically, selling Alexander-Arnold in a situation where there was no contract stress could surely have netted Liverpool even more money. All else being equal, he would clearly warrant being the most expensive defender of all time, an honor currently held by Harry Maguire ($107 million/£80 million).
(Image: Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images)
It seems reasonable to suggest that a contract-agnostic valuation of Alexander-Arnold would be more like $120 million (£90 million). Even that could be on the low side.
After all, this is a 26-year-old among the very best in the world in his position. He is already the record-holder for the most assists by a defender in the Premier League.
Not only that, but he has redefined the right-back position. He is not just a very good full-back, he is a generational talent in terms of his vision and passing range.
Crucially, however, it is important to point out that if Alexander-Arnold was not leaving for nothing, then he probably would not be leaving at all. Liverpool would have been hugely reluctant to countenance a sale, and Real Madrid has made a habit of going after free transfers.
In that very limited respect, Alexander-Arnold has probably been a little hard done-by in terms of the criticism he has received. Realistically, this was the only way he was ever likely to leave Liverpool.
But that is of limited consolation to the club, which has allowed perhaps its most valuable asset to leave for next to nothing. Instead of a Philippe Coutinho moment, Liverpool will now need to set about replacing a star player with the money that was already in the bank.
It has the capacity to do so, not least with the talented Conor Bradley already on the books. But there are no two ways about it: Alexander-Arnold’s departure is costing Liverpool vast sums of money.
