Le Havre and Marseille lock horns in a crucial encounter that will have huge implications at both ends of the Ligue 1 table on Saturday night.
The hosts enter this clash on the back of a dramatic and potentially pivotal victory last weekend, while Marseille remain in the driving seat for Champions League qualification.
Match preview
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A come-from-behind victory away to Auxerre last weekend could prove to be the decisive moment that maintains Le Havre’s status as a Ligue 1 club for next season.
Heading into the final 10 minutes 1-0 down, Didier Digard‘s side rallied late on to take all three points, opening up a four-point gap to Saint-Etienne, who occupy the final automatic relegation spot.
A draw with Monaco a week earlier also means Le Havre are making the strongest charge for survival, while most of the sides above them are faltering.
The hosts remain in the relegation playoff spot heading into the weekend, and they have two very difficult fixtures to finish the season, coming up against Marseille and Strasbourg, but safety is just one point away, while they are only two points adrift of 13th.
Reims, Nantes and Saint-Etienne all have much more favourable fixtures to finish over the next two weekends, but if Le Havre can record their 10th Ligue 1 win of the season, something they have not managed since the 2002-03 campaign, then that could prove to be enough.
History suggests they will struggle to find it in this fixture though, because Le Havre have not won any of their last 21 Ligue 1 fixtures against Marseille – their longest ever run against a single opponent.
Extending that run to 22 matches would see Marseille record their longest unbeaten run against a single opponent, and after winning on their last three trips to Stade Oceane, they could become just the third club in top-flight history to make it four in a row at this venue.
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The race for the Champions League is equally as tight as the battle at the bottom, and Marseille remain best placed to take one of the two remaining automatic league phase spots.
Roberto De Zerbi‘s men only drew at Lille last weekend, surrendering their lead late on, but they remain second in the Ligue 1 standings heading into this kind fixture on paper.
OM are the favourites to finish in the top three, but there is still a very likely scenario where they could finish in the playoff spot, or miss out on the top four entirely, as just two points separate the teams between second and sixth.
The visitors will need to hope their attack is on form, because no side in the division is on a longer run without a clean sheet at present, with Marseille conceding in each of their last eight matches.
Along with champions Paris Saint-Germain though, Marseille are the only other club to be averaging over two goals-per-game in Ligue 1 this season, so that has often compensated for their lack of defensive solidity.
Team News
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Le Havre are set to be without striker Koka after he was forced off in the first half during their win at Auxerre last weekend, while Josue Casimir was another casualty that afternoon, and is doubtful.
Those two could join longer-term absentees Andy Logbo (shoulder), Gautier Lloris (hamstring) and Yann Kitala (ankle) on the sidelines, so the hosts will be noticeably depleted for this clash.
Arouna Sangante will be available in defence though, after he returned from suspension to score the injury-time winner in that dramatic victory a week ago.
De Zerbi is set to have his entire senior squad available to him for this one, so another similar XI could be in store after three impressive performances in response to the defeat at Monaco.
Amine Gouiri is one player who has returned to full fitness in that time, and he is flourishing at his new club, netting a hat trick against Brest two weeks ago, before scoring the opener at Lille last time out, taking him to eight goals and three assists in 12 games since his move from Rennes.
Le Havre possible starting lineup:
Gorgelin; Nego, Kinkoue, Sangante, Ballo-Toure; Mwanga, Toure, Kechta; Diawara, Ayew, Soumare
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Murillo, Balerdi, Kondogbia, Garcia; Bennacer, Hojbjerg, Rabiot; Greenwood, Gouiri, Luis Henrique
We say: Le Havre 2-3 Marseille
Marseille have kept just five clean sheets this season, but have scored 67 goals in 32 games, so action at both ends is expected, but given their dominant record over Le Havre, an away victory is the most likely outcome.
Le Havre have a very tough finish to the season, and may need some favours from elsewhere to avoid the drop, but they will need to pull something miraculous out of the bag if they are to dodge the relegation playoff.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
