Fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund could claim a Champions League spot in their final Bundesliga game of the season if they beat relegated visitors Holstein Kiel on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park.
BVB’s points tally of 54 is just one fewer than fourth-placed Freiburg, who occupy the final Champions League qualification spot, while their opponents are in 17th place with just 25 points and their relegation was confirmed following their 2-1 loss against Freiburg on May 10.
Match preview
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Dortmund emerged as 4-2 victors against Bayer Leverkusen on May 11, claiming three points despite producing just over one xG and two big chances, with five of their 13 touches inside the box resulting in goals.
BVB have managed to find the back of the net on 19 occasions in their past six games, though they did concede nine times in those matches.
Head coach Niko Kovac will secure a top-four finish if Freiburg fail to beat third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt and his side win on Saturday, though a draw would be enough for Champions League football if Freiburg lose.
It should be said that the hosts are only three points ahead of sixth-placed Mainz 05 and seventh-placed RB Leipzig, but their goal difference of 17 is five better than Mainz’s figure and 11 better than Leipzig’s.
The Black and Yellows come into the weekend’s clash on the back of five consecutive victories, an impressive run of form considering they had only won five of their prior 12.
Dortmund’s displays at Signal Iduna Park have been excellent, with the club winning their last four at home by a cumulative score of 13-4.
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Meanwhile, the visitors failed to hold onto the one-goal lead they had taken in the 24th minute against Freiburg and were 2-1 down by the 58th minute, but their only shot on target after the interval came in second-half stoppage time.
Holstein Kiel were relegated following the defeat, with their record of 49 goals scored and 77 conceded in the top flight making them the Bundesliga’s seventh worst offensive and worst defensive side.
The Storks beat Dortmund 4-2 in the reverse fixture on January 14, and boss Marcel Rapp will have been delighted with his team’s performance at the back that day given they faced just one big chance.
Holstein Kiel have triumphed in two of their three most recent matches, losing just once in their last four.
The visitors are unbeaten in three away games – drawing two – and they will become just the 11th team in Bundesliga history to score in every single match on the road in a season if they find the back of the net on Saturday.
Team News
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Dortmund midfielder Pascal Gross is suspended due to the accumulation of too many yellow cards, so expect Marcel Sabitzer to come into the team to play alongside Felix Nmecha.
Centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck may not return to the pitch until October as a result of a meniscus injury, and his absence makes Niklas Sule, Waldemar Anton and Ramy Bensebaini the most probable candidates to appear in a back three.
With attacker Maximilian Beier ruled out, striker Serhou Guirassy may be supported by Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi.
As for Holstein Kiel, midfielder Armin Gigovic is suspended, though Nicolai Remberg and Magnus Knudsen are available.
Steven Skrzybski could play in an attacking role behind forwards Alexander Bernhardsson and Shuto Machino given Andu Yobel Kelati is injured.
Rapp will be without centre-backs Colin Kleine-Bekel, Ivan Nekic, Marco Komenda and Patrick Erras, and their injuries could force the boss to select Timo Becker, Carl Johansson and David Zec in central defence.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Sule, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson; Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Dahne; Becker, Johansson, Zec; Rosenboom, Remberg, Knudsen, Tolkin; Skrzybski; Bernhardsson, Machino
We say: Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Holstein Kiel
Dortmund will look to take advantage of the visitors’ vulnerable defence, and they are likely to create numerous opportunities.
It would not be surprising if Holstein Kiel found their way onto the scoresheet, but they are almost certain to be on the receiving end of another loss.
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