Defeated Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen will hope to derail hosts’ Mainz 05‘s chances of qualifying for European football when they play them at Mewa Arena on Saturday in their final game of the season.
Sixth-placed Mainz have 51 points but only occupy the division’s Conference League qualification spot due to having better goal difference than seventh-placed RB Leipzig, while Leverkusen have 68 points and have secured second place despite losing 4-2 against Borussia Dortmund on May 11.
Match preview
The hosts managed to comfortably see past VfL Bochum 4-1 on May 10 thanks to an excellent second-half display, scoring three goals and creating three big chances while also preventing Bochum from producing a big chance of their own.
Mainz’ victory was their first in eight games, with the club’s three defeats and four draws in that period ending their chance of Champions League qualification.
Karnevalsverein could still qualify for the Europa League given they are only three points from fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund, but they would need BVB to lose against relegated Holstein Kiel and to overturn to a five goal difference deficit.
Boss Bo Henriksen will be concerned that his side have failed to keep their opponents at bay in any of their past 10 fixtures, conceding 15 in their last eight.
While Mainz have been held to stalemates in each of their four most recent matches at home, they managed to triumph in six of their prior seven at Mewa Arena.
Opponents Leverkusen took the lead against Borussia Dortmund in the 30th minute but were drawn level just two minutes later, and boss Xabi Alonso will have questions for his defenders and goalkeeper considering they conceded four times despite facing just 1.16 xG.
In fact, Die Schwarzroten have now conceded more goals in their last two games (six) than they had in their previous six (four).
Alonso has announced his intention to leave the club in the summer, and he will be keen to end his reign with a win despite the fact his team have already secured second place.
Die Werkself earned all three points against Mainz when they met in the Bundesliga on January 14, winning 1-0 thanks to Alejandro Grimaldo‘s winner, and that was their fourth win in five games against their hosts.
Leverkusen come into the clash in subpar form having drawn three of their past five in the top flight, succumbing to one defeat.
The Black and Reds have also shared the spoils in their two most recent away matches, losing two and winning two of their prior four on the road.
Team News
Mainz will hope that injuries to centre-backs Dominik Kohr and Moritz Jenz do not prove costly on Saturday, with goalkeeper Robin Zentner also set to miss the weekend’s game.
Danny da Costa, Stefan Bell and Andreas Hanche-Olsen could feature in back three ahead of shot-stopper Lasse Riess.
Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri started in a double pivot last time out, and they may be stationed behind attackers Paul Nebel, Jae-sung Lee and Jonathan Burkardt.
Meanwhile, Leverkusen defenders Jeanuel Belocian, Mario Hermoso and Nordi Mukiele have been ruled out, making Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapie likely to play.
Wing-back Jeremie Frimpong has been strongly linked with a move to Liverpool, and he will want to put in a strong performance in what could be his final game for the club.
Attacker Florian Wirtz has also been linked with an exit, and with forward Martin Terrier having suffered an Achilles tendon injury, the German can be expected to start alongside Emiliano Buendia and Patrik Schick.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Riess; Da Costa, Bell, Hanche-Olsen; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Garcia, Grimaldo; Wirtz, Buendia; Schick
We say: Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen’s defence has proven vulnerable in recent weeks and they could encounter difficulties against Mainz.
Having said that, the visitors will want to ensure that the likes of Alonso and Frimpong are given good sendoffs for their endeavours in Germany, and they could score multiple times themselves.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
