Masters of their own fate, Porto need just a point on the final day of the Primeira Liga season to guarantee a third-place finish when they host Nacional at the Estadio do Dragao on Saturday.
The Dragons come into this clash on the back of a hard-fought win over Boavista, a result that moved them three points clear of Braga and all but sealed their place in the top three for another season.
Match preview
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Porto have amassed 68 points across 21 wins, five draws and seven defeats in what has been a turbulent 2024-25 Primeira Liga campaign littered with high hopes, stumbles and late recoveries.
Martin Anselmi‘s men were firmly in the title conversation at the end of 2024 following a run of three successive victories which saw them draw level with Sporting Lisbon at the summit, but the Dragon’s charge soon unravelled as the turn of January brought an unwelcome slump.
A five-game stretch without a single win (D3, 2L) pulled the plug on their championship aspirations and opened the door for rivals to close the gap, with Braga breathing heavily down their neck as they fought to stay afloat.
Since then, Porto have shown improvement, and last weekend’s 2-1 triumph over Boavista marked their eighth victory in 12 top-flight outings, with the Dragons flying out of the blocks with two early strikes before digging deep to preserve their lead after conceding midway through the first half.
While a draw is all that is needed to cross the finish line, there remains unfinished business for the Blue and Whites, who will be eager to avenge their 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture.
That goal will be aided by their formidable record at the Dragao, where Porto have picked up 12 wins from 16 league matches this season, a return that places them as the third-strongest home side in the division.
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In contrast, the visitors have found life on the road far more punishing, sitting second from bottom in the away table with just 10 points to show from 16 outings.
Nacional’s travels have been marred by bluntness in the final third, with only nine goals scored on opposition soil — the second-fewest return in the league and a clear reflection of their attacking struggles.
Tiago Margarido‘s side enter this encounter on a four-game winless run which includes two draws and two defeats, although their most recent performance did show a glimmer of spirit.
Against Rio Ave last weekend, the White and Black looked dead and buried after going three goals down before the break, but a second-half resurgence saw Andre Sousa start the fightback before stoppage-time strikes from Leo Santos and Konstantinos Kostoulas snatched a dramatic draw from the jaws of defeat.
That comeback ensured they stayed 13th on 34 points, with survival already secured, which is a commendable feat for a side that only returned to the top flight at the start of the campaign.
Team News
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Having drawn blanks in his previous two appearances, teenage sensation Rodrigo Mora rediscovered his scoring touch last time out by netting the opener to make it six goals in his last eight league outings, and he will carry plenty of belief into this weekend’s encounter.
Nehuen Perez was given his marching orders early in that match and will now serve a suspension, with Otavio expected to fill in from the start.
Fabio Vieira was pushed further forward as Pepe dropped to the bench, and that tactical shuffle could be repeated for the final game of the campaign.
Vasco Sousa and Marko Grujic remain unavailable due to injury as both players continue their respective recoveries.
As for the visitors, Miguel Baeza and Ivanildo Fernandes remain on the sidelines, while Jose Gomes faces a late fitness test to determine whether he can play a part.
Should Gomes fall short, Margarido could again revert to a three-man defence, with Paulinho Boia likely to return at left wing-back.
Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Marcano, Pedro, Otavio; Moura, Varela, Eustaquio, Fernandes; Mora, Aghehowa, Vieira
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Franca; Gomes, Vítor, Ulisses, Garcia; Esteves, Soumare, Penha; Macedo, Tagueu, Yamada
We say: Porto 2-0 Nacional
Although Porto could still finish third even with a defeat, thanks to their superior goal difference over Braga, that is unlikely to cross the hosts’ minds as they aim to make it six home league wins on the bounce against Nacional
That said, the visitors’ blunt edge in attack on their travels paints a bleak picture ahead of this clash, especially as they face the division’s meanest defence on familiar territory, with the Dragons conceding just 11 goals at the Estadio do Dragao throughout the Primeira Liga season.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
