St Pauli enter Saturday’s final day in the Bundesliga needing a point against relegated VfL Bochum at Millerntor-Stadion to survive in the top flight for the first time since the 1995-96 season.
The hosts head into the contest three points clear of Heidenheim in the relegation playoff spot, and even a defeat might still see them stay above the bottom three, given their superior goal difference over the 16th-placed outfit.
Match preview
Although St Pauli will begin Saturday’s final matchday knowing they have failed to defeat Bochum in six competitive contests, the outcome has been different in Hamburg, where Kiezkicker have notched three wins and drawn two in five Bundesliga matches.
That historical precedent should be advantageous to Alexander Blessin‘s team, who aim to overcome the club’s losing run in their previous six final-day gameweeks, with St Pauli’s last win a 5-1 success over KFC Uerdingen 05 in 1989.
Although the home support will back their players for a positive result against a team that have little or no motivation after last weekend’s relegation, the club’s failure to find the back of the net in 10 of their 16 matches at Millerntor-Stadion may dampen the optimism a bit.
Indeed, it is not surprising that the Neighbourhood Kickers are the lowest scorers in the competition with 28 goals in 33 matches, striking three fewer than the side they welcome this weekend.
While maximum points or a draw will undoubtedly secure their involvement next term, even a defeat could suffice, given that 16th-placed Heidenheim need a 14-goal swing on the last day to drag Blessin’s men into the relegation playoff spot.
Bochum’s inability to score consistently suggests that Die Blauen are unlikely to suddenly be prolific this weekend, especially as the second-lowest scorers have fired blanks in three of their previous six top-flight matches.
The reduced expectation for a Bochum victory is reinforced by the fact that Dieter Hecking‘s men have drawn a blank in consecutive league matches on their travels, losing 1-0 at Werder Bremen and playing to a goalless draw at relegation-threatened Heidenheim.
The away side’s dismal record on their travels has seen them secure just one on-pitch triumph, which was a shocking 3-2 success at Bayern Munich after being 2-0 down.
That victory came after consecutive draws, taking Die Unabsteigbaren to three matches unbeaten in the division; however, losing two and drawing one proved that the previous three-match unbeaten run was an anomaly.
Having needed penalties in the relegation playoffs last term, Bochum did not quite get lucky this term, though the bottom-placed club will aim to end the season positively in Hamburg.
Team News
While Abdoulie Ceesay (ankle) will be assessed by the hosts, Sascha Burchert (groin), Jackson Irvine (foot), Karol Mets (knee), Elias Saad (thigh), James Sands (ankle) and Simon Zoller (muscle) are expected to miss the contest.
Although no St Pauli player has reached double figures for goals, Morgan Guilavogui (six) and Oladapo Afolayan (three) aim to play decisive roles in gameweek 34.
Matus Bero (calf) is touch-and-go for Bochum, who will be without Philipp Hofmann (broken rib), Tom Krauss (back), Ivan Ordets (back) and Mohammed Tolba (groin).
With Beto uncertain to add to his five goals, Bochum may have to rely on seven-goal forward Myron Boadu to come up trumps for the relegated side.
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Nemeth, Wahl, Van der Heyden; Saliakas, Smith, Boukhalfa, Treu; Sinani; Guilavogui, Weisshaupt
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Horn; Oermann, Medic, Bernardo; Passlack, Sissoko, Losilla, Pannewig, Wittek; Broschinski, Masouras
We say: St Pauli 1-0 VfL Bochum
While Hecking’s men are expected to play with freedom, this contest between the division’s lowest scorers should be decided by very fine margins.
Although a draw seems a fair prediction, we are backing St Pauli to secure the win for their fourth victory over Bochum in six home Bundesliga contests.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
