With barely a week of the season remaining, nothing is decided in the gripping race to finish in the Premier League’s top five.
Well, that’s not quite true, Liverpool are champions and will definitely represent the Premier League in next season’s Champions League. One of Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur — as reigning Europa League holders — will also take part.
That leaves six teams fighting for four other qualifying berths, and with only two games left, we are entering the endgame.
It’s a jumbled fixture list for the top-five chasers in matchweek 37. With Saturday left free for the FA Cup final, Aston Villa and Chelsea play their games on Friday, Nottingham Forest, Arsenal and Newcastle United (the latter two against each other) are in action on Sunday while Manchester City — fresh from either winning or losing at Wembley — play on Tuesday evening. Such disjointedness should only add to the excitement.
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Opta’s prediction model still rates Arsenal as the side most likely to finish second, but that does depend hugely on their game against Newcastle this weekend. Eddie Howe’s side know that two wins will make them Premier League runners-up for the first time since 1997. The fact that Manchester City play last makes it likely they will be considerably lower in the table by the time Tuesday comes around. Chelsea and Aston Villa will hope that Manchester United and Spurs are fully-focused on next week’s final, while Forest need to win their final two games and see where it takes them.
But what is the mood at each club as the final two matches loom?
To shed some light, here’s The Athletic’s weekly vibe check with club writers at each of the top five contenders, plus a reminder of why reaching the Champions League remains so important.
Why historic European performance matters when it comes to prize money
Liverpool apart, the occupants of England’s five Champions League spots are still unknown; four will go to the remainder of the top five, while Manchester United and Tottenham’s Europa League final will add a surprising sheen to one of those sides’ worst seasons in recent history.
Who eventually makes the cut will have an impact not just on the English clubs concerned but those they’ll play in the Champions League next season. UEFA’s method for distributing prize money includes a tranche driven by their coefficient ranking, which allocates points to clubs based on historic performance in Europe. If a club with a high UEFA coefficient fails to qualify, it naturally bumps everyone else up the order, increasing their share of the bounty.
Take Manchester City. The 2023 treble-winners sit second in UEFA’s five-year coefficient ranking and third in the 10-year version; were they to miss out on next season’s Champions League, every competing club except Real Madrid would benefit from their absence.
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Estimating where exactly competing clubs will rank for the coefficient element is a meddlesome task, not least because only 16 clubs have so far confirmed their place for next season. That will rise to 29 by this season’s end, still leaving seven spots available for sides competing in the qualifying stages over the summer.
Further complicating matters is UEFA’s new format. Previously, clubs were ranked from one to 32 and given a proportional slice of a €600.3million pot. Starting this season, coefficient rankings are tied into an €853m ‘value pillar’.
The exact split is yet to be confirmed, but around 25 per cent of the value pillar is shared according to the 10-year ranking; the remaining 75 per cent incorporates both the five-year ranking and a club’s share of their country’s TV pool. English clubs benefit from the latter point, with British broadcasting deals generally only trailing those in France.
Returning to the coefficient point, City, Chelsea and Arsenal have racked up healthy figures, and all currently rank in UEFA’s top 12 across both the five-year and 10-year categories. The other contenders don’t, and even Aston Villa’s run to the quarter-finals this season leaves them behind the likes of Slavia Prague and Olympiacos, both of whom will play Champions League football next season.
Despite this season’s heroics, Villa’s UEFA coefficient is still relatively low (Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)
Even lower would be Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. Their individual coefficients are lower than 20 per cent of the overall English coefficient – so Newcastle and Forest are assigned that 20 per cent figure instead. Based on the 16 qualified teams and the other 13 we can reasonably estimate based on current standings, both clubs would rank near the bottom of the coefficient pile.
There’s plenty of prize money to go around, and the new format has reshaped things, but historic performance still counts for plenty in the Champions League.
Chris Weatherspoon
How are the contenders feeling?
Arsenal
After reaching half-time 2-0 down at Anfield, this week could have been very different for Arsenal. There was a risk of not only being one point off Newcastle and two off Manchester City, but four off Chelsea and Aston Villa.
Their fightback to draw 2-2 provided them a valuable point to separate themselves further from Chelsea and Villa even if there is still work to do to secure second place.
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This weekend’s visit of Newcastle could well decide who finishes where, with the winner going into the final day in second place. One point is all Arsenal need to secure Champions League football, but for their own pride, they cannot go into this game thinking a draw is enough.
While juggling the Champions League semi-finals with the league, Mikel Arteta’s side have drawn two and lost three of their last five games in all competitions. They have also not won at the Emirates in the Premier League since April 1 (a 2-1 win over Fulham), drawing twice and losing once since then.
Arsenal’s draw at Anfield last weekend could prove vital (Peter Powell/AFP via Getty Images)
A win against a strong Newcastle side, who have already beaten them three times this season, will do well to signify where the mentality of this group is at. Having been second for so long this season, dropping below that so late wouldn’t change much in the grand scheme of things, but would be embarrassing.
The returns of Declan Rice, Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz to training should give Arteta a boost as they prepare for their last home game of the season and a chance to end the campaign on a high.
Remaining games: Newcastle (h), Southampton (a)
Art de Roche
Newcastle United
Should Sunday’s clash at the Emirates be dubbed ‘the shootout for second’?
Perhaps, although leapfrogging Arsenal into the runners-up berth would be more of a positive byproduct of Newcastle all-but securing a return to Champions League football with a victory in north London.
One win from their final two matches — Newcastle host Everton on Sunday week — will guarantee a top-five finish for Howe’s men. Well, that is unless Villa can make up a 16-goal deficit in the goal-difference stakes, which is not impossible, but feels highly improbable.
The 2-0 scoreline against top-five rivals Chelsea last Sunday looks more comfortable than the second half felt for Newcastle supporters. Despite playing against 10 men for the majority of the match following Nicolas Jackson’s brainless red card, Newcastle ceded possession and territory to Chelsea after the break and it took until the 90th minute for Bruno Guimaraes to score Newcastle’s second and belatedly settle any nerves.
Can Eddie Howe mastermind a second-place finish for Newcastle? (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Mercifully, that means Newcastle are very much in control of their own destiny, even if Arsenal will provide a stern test. Despite having overcome Arsenal three times already this season without conceding — once at St James’ Park in the league, plus home and away in the Carabao Cup semi-final — Newcastle’s only top-flight victory at the Emirates came 14 years ago.
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What’s more, Arteta seems particularly vexed with Newcastle — “disgrace-gate”, anyone? — and Howe seems to have implanted himself in the Arsenal manager’s head. Therefore, you suspect that Arteta would love nothing more than to dent Newcastle’s top-five hopes.
Even so, Newcastle will go to the capital with no fear and look to secure an unprecedented fourth victory over Arsenal in a single season. If they do, the Champions League beckons.
Remaining games: Arsenal (a), Everton (h)
Chris Waugh
Manchester City
City’s draw at Southampton was quite the spanner in the works, although because of other results last weekend and the fact that Forest play Chelsea on the final day, they should be fine.
But it does mean that they will have to win at least one of their last two games and Bournemouth at home is not the easiest. That said, it is not the toughest either, and while optimism will have been dented by the Southampton result — which really annoyed a lot of fans — it is Kevin De Bruyne’s final game at the Etihad, and so the atmosphere should be memorable.
A 0-0 draw at Southampton was a surprise result for Manchester City (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Of course, City play Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final before that, and so the mood is largely dependent on the result there. Mood or otherwise, City should still get the job done — and they better had, if they want to avoid the pressure of needing to win at Fulham on the final day.
Remaining games: Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)
Sam Lee
Chelsea
Chelsea took heart from their spirited second-half performance with 10 men against Newcastle, but their errors in the opening 45 minutes at St James’ Park led to a defeat which has left them once again clinging onto fifth place in the race for Champions League qualification.
Worse still, Enzo Maresca must get creative to find a solution up front without the suspended Jackson against Manchester United and Nottingham Forest. Will it be Pedro Neto? Cole Palmer? Tyrique George? Christopher Nkunku and Marc Guiu are not fit for Friday at Stamford Bridge, but they have not proven to be great solutions in any case.
Do Chelsea need maximum points from their final two games? (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
One point clear of final-day opponents Forest and with a superior goal difference to the resurgent Aston Villa, Chelsea still have their destiny in their own hands. But they also have no more margin for error in a top-five race that will largely determine how Maresca’s first season at Stamford Bridge will be viewed.
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Remaining games: Manchester United (h), Nottingham Forest (a)
Liam Twomey
Aston Villa
Last Saturday’s 1-0 victory at Bournemouth means Villa will be playing in Europe for a third successive season. This is a deeply impressive achievement, having been long removed from the traditional ‘big six’ clubs and is a testament, especially shown in this campaign, of Unai Emery being able to keep performance levels sufficiently high, despite the extra matches and pressures of the Champions League.
Villa have now won seven of their previous eight Premier League fixtures, with only Newcastle collecting more points in that time. Confidence is at its highest at any point of the season, given the win at Bournemouth relied upon a certain defensive resolve that has not always been there.
Will Villa access the riches of the Champions League again next season? (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Villa boast the best defensive record since the start of March and know Tottenham’s visit on Friday night — a rescheduled fixture which angered senior staff due to Tottenham wanting more time before the Europa League final the following Wednesday — is a game they should win.
Tottenham will likely rest most of their strongest XI, with Villa viewing this as another critical moment in narrowing the gap.
Remaining games: Tottenham Hotspur (h), Manchester United (a)
Jacob Tanswell
Nottingham Forest
Well, that did not go to plan. Nottingham Forest could and should have beaten their old rivals Leicester City last Sunday. They had enough opportunities to do so but by the end, Leicester could even have snatched all three points themselves.
The biggest concern after the final whistle was not the result, but the terrible injury suffered by striker Taiwo Awoniyi, after he collided painfully with a post, in the final stages.
The Nigerian has been in hospital since Monday, fighting to recover from a serious abdominal operation, being placed into an induced coma at one point.
But while the primary focus has quite rightly been on Awoniyi’s health, when Forest return to action at West Ham on Sunday, their Champions League fate will no longer be in their own hands.
In fact, the chances of them finishing the top five are as slim as they have been since they first climbed into third place, back in December. Forest have secured European football of some kind, they are certain of playing in the Europa League or Conference League next season. The point they got from the 2-2 draw with Leicester was enough to make certain of that.
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That is a remarkable achievement, given that they had fought relegation in the last two seasons. But there was still no mood of celebration after the final whistle at the City Ground.
There still could be, if they can beat West Ham and then Chelsea on the final day. But Forest will still need others to slip up. And in the meantime, Awoniyi’s injury has offered a reminder that some things are far more important than football.
Remaining games: West Ham United (a), Chelsea (h)
Paul Taylor
(Header photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)
