Premier League race for top five: Forest vs Chelsea pivotal as five teams chase three Champions League spots on last day

So here we are. One afternoon, three remaining Champions League spots and five clubs fighting over them.

What we know already: Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur (the latter as Europa League winners rather than via league position) will represent England in the Champions League next season.

What we will find out on Sunday: which of Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest will join them in UEFA’s blue-riband club competition.

The Opta supercomputer is not particularly revelatory when the season has one round of matches to go, but it’s still able to simulate those remaining 10 games 10,000 times, which is more than any human is going to attempt.

And once all those calculations are over, the respected machine is backing the status quo, with City, Newcastle and Chelsea expected to remain third to fifth — and in that order, too. Villa’s inferior goal difference and Forest’s ever-so-slightly lower points total are deemed to be the hurdles that will force those two into lesser UEFA tournaments next season.

But a lot can change over a couple of hours’ game time on Sunday, so what is the mood at each of the five clubs as the final 90 minutes of the domestic top flight’s season approach?

To shed some light on the matter, here is the last of The Athletic’s weekly vibes-checks with our club writers at each of the remaining top-five contenders, plus a final reminder of why reaching the Champions League remains so important.

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How much would each team earn in next season’s Champions League

OK, this is it. Somebody could be going to Napoli next season, somebody could be going to (no offence, we’re sure it’s lovely) Lille.

Tottenham’s loser-goes-bust (alright, not quite) Europa League final win against Manchester United on Wednesday and developments in domestic leagues across the continent mean we now know 24 of next season’s 36 Champions League sides. That figure will rise to 29 this weekend as the seasons end in Italy, Belgium and, of course, the Premier League.

As we keep saying, five into three won’t go and, on Sunday, we’ll finally find out who gets to sit at the big boys’ table come September.

With the end in sight, why not have a look at what it could be worth to each club?

It’s worth stressing these figures are all very much in the land of the estimate. This season’s Champions League distributions aren’t known yet, and we’re in the first year of a new format that employs some convoluted/intricate calculations.

We also won’t know those final seven of the 36 teams until qualifying rounds are completed in August, just before the 2025-26 competition proper kicks off — a factor which could impact the takings of those English clubs without much recent involvement in European football.

All that considered, leading the charge into the final day are City, who’ve become quite used to Champions League football over the past decade or so.

Their haul of roughly £65million ($87.3m) from the competition this season is actually a seven-year low for them but shows how much they can earn even when they don’t perform that well, having taken 11 points from their eight league-phase matches, before losing in the first knockout round to Real Madrid. Should they do worse still and not win a single point next time (assuming they do qualify, of course), they should still top £50m in prize money.

City benefit from their historically strong performance in Europe, something fourth-placed Newcastle can’t draw upon. Their only Champions League foray since Alan Shearer’s days in the early 2000s saw them finish bottom of their group two seasons ago. That lack of recent experience hampered their earning power; we estimate a prize-money floor of around £32million.

Below them in the Premier League table, though not when it comes to projected minimum earnings next season, are Chelsea. As European champions in 2021, their recent hiatus from UEFA’s top competition limits them relative to continental peers but they still rank highly on a coefficient basis. We reckon they’d bank at least £48million as a Champions League side next season.

Below them, Villa and Forest occupy sixth and seventh heading into Sunday, shut out by goal difference in Villa’s case and a solitary point for Forest. Their minimum earnings again suffer from a lack of history in the competition, even after Villa’s run to this year’s quarter-finals. We estimate they would earn at least £35m; our projection for Forest is a hair below Newcastle’s £32m.

All of these minimum-earnings estimates assume clubs lose all eight league-phase games in 2025-26, a possibility that seems pretty remote. Each team mentioned here will almost certainly bank more prize money than estimated if they qualify on Sunday.

What’s more, we’ve not included the other benefits of Champions League football, such as higher gate receipts from (at least) four additional home games, or the commercial upside from being in Europe’s premier club competition.

Of course, there are related costs, too. Champions League qualification tends to mean coughing up some chunky bonuses to your players, and dozens of squad members and backroom staff will need transport to and accommodation in at least four European destinations between September and January. More revenue coming in is nice but there’s no such thing as a free bar.

Still, better to be out than in.

Chris Weatherspoon

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How are the contenders feeling?

Manchester City 

Surely City are over the line. Having beaten visitors Bournemouth 3-1 on Tuesday, they just need an away point against Fulham, or for other results to go their way.

But following the goalless draw at already-relegated, last-by-miles Southampton two weeks ago, and even after playing well in defeat against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final, you can never be sure with Pep Guardiola and company this season.

Even with that unpredictability and some harebrained moments against Bournemouth, there is confidence that they will get the job done at Craven Cottage. The fact City have won 17 games in a row against the west Londoners — the longest such run by any combination of teams in English footballing history — only adds to the air of (probable) inevitability.

Sam Lee

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Newcastle United

Newcastle’s exact European fate may remain unclear, but there is one certainty going into their finale against visitors Everton: St James’ Park will be raucous.

That will no doubt be aided by more free pints being given away to the Toon Army, as they were before the important victory over top-five rivals Chelsea earlier this month. Jamie Reuben, a co-owner at Newcastle, replied to a fan account who proposed two free drinks for fellow supporters on Sunday, calling it “an interesting idea”, and on Thursday the club confirmed that the idea was to become a reality.

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One. More. Game.

Bring the noise on Sunday 👊 pic.twitter.com/JP9BDBcFOg

— Newcastle United (@NUFC) May 22, 2025

With a Europa League spot already secured, barring an unlikely set of results, and a win basically guaranteeing a top-five finish, Newcastle’s job is clear: record a seventh successive home league victory and they will be in the Champions League next season.

Nerves will be jangling, no doubt, but there will also be a feeling inside St James’ that they will deliver. The mood emanating from the club suggests quiet confidence; belief has grown following that Carabao Cup final triumph over Liverpool in March and with this team’s consistent ability to rise to the big occasions across the season.

Their 2024-25 campaign is already historic, but victory on Sunday will ensure it is the best on Tyneside for almost a century.

Just one more win. That’s all Newcastle need.

Chris Waugh

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Chelsea

So it all comes down to this.

As much as Enzo Maresca has tried to claim otherwise in recent weeks, Chelsea’s result away to Nottingham Forest on Sunday will determine whether his first season as their head coach is regarded as successful — even with a trophy up for grabs in the UEFA Conference League final against Spain’s Real Betis three days later.

Win at the City Ground and Chelsea are guaranteed Champions League football next season. Anything less and they are very likely to be bumped down to the second-tier Europa League, or worse. There is at least a comforting clarity in knowing their destiny is in their own hands.

Less comforting is Chelsea’s away form. Maresca’s team have picked up six Premier League points from a possible 24 on their travels in 2025 and rank 11th in the Premier League for results on the road over the season, having lost as many games away from Stamford Bridge (seven) as they have won.

Matching the intensity of opponents in hostile atmospheres has been a problem. Breaking down low blocks has been another. Forest, for all their recent struggles, can be expected to pose both challenges.

Chelsea’s final hurdle to return to the Champions League promises to be their hardest.

Liam Twomey

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Aston Villa

No Premier League team has collected more points than Villa (24) since the start of March. No team has conceded fewer goals in the division over the same period (four).

A record of three defeats from the past 16 games in all competitions — away to Champions League finalists Paris Saint-Germain, to eventual FA Cup winners Crystal Palace in the Wembley semi-final and via a 94th-minute Manchester City goal — highlights how strong Villa have been in recent months and how much ground they have made up following a poor first half of the season.

So Villa enter the final day knowing what they have to do: beat a poor Manchester United team whose energy and spirit will surely be drained after the defeat in Wednesday’s Europa League final that means no European football of any kind for them next season, and rely on either Chelsea, Newcastle or City dropping points.

Despite a wretched record of two wins in their previous 29 Premier League visits to Old Trafford, Villa believe they are at their peak and do not want the season to end.

The only question is whether they have timed their surge up the final straight too late.

Jacob Tanswell

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Nottingham Forest

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side found the perfect time to rediscover themselves again at West Ham last weekend, giving a performance that epitomised everything that has been good about Forest this season. Defensively solid — at least until the game’s nerve-shredding last few minutes — and brilliant on the counter-attack, they came away with a 2-1 win that at least gives them a chance of securing a top-five finish in Sunday’s finale against Chelsea.

Winning again in what will be a partisan, noisy City Ground would ensure they play Europa League football next season. If either Aston Villa or Newcastle drop points at the same time, Forest could still sneak Champions League qualification.

The latter is now a slim prospect but, after a season full of surprises, maybe these players are capable of delivering one more. They have to focus on getting the job done themselves first before worrying about events at Old Trafford and St James’ Park.

Paul Taylor

(Top photos of Nuno, left, and Maresca: Getty Images)

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