Parma travel to the Gewiss Stadium on the final day of the Serie A season knowing they must beat Atalanta BC on Sunday to be sure of top-flight survival.
Atalanta are already assured of third place and Champions League football, but can still have a big say in the relegation picture.
Match preview
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For Parma, the permutations are simple: if they win on Sunday, they will play Serie A football again next season.
If Christian Chivu‘s men fail in that objective, they will still be safe as long as there is not a repeat of last week’s scenes that saw both Empoli and Lecce win on a dramatic penultimate weekend.
There is still an astonishing scenario where four clubs could all finish on 34 points, and given that a playout will decide who is relegated in that situation, the head-to-head records between Empoli, Lecce, Parma and Hellas Verona mean it would be the latter two who enter that playout.
Prior to gameweek 37, heading into a fixture against league leaders Napoli, Parma would have expected a point to be enough for survival, and that is what they earned, but to see both Lecce and Empoli below them win was a real gut-punch, and means the fight for survival for the Gialloblu goes to the final day.
Another difficult fixture awaits, but after drawing 0-0 with Napoli last week, Parma have only lost one of the seven games against top-half teams since Chivu arrived as manager.
Away form is a huge concern though, because the Crociati have won just once on the road all season, but Chivu has had a positive impact in that regard too, because the visitors have lost just one of their last five away from home.
Atalanta have proven formidable opponents of late though, winning seven successive meetings between the two in Serie A by a combined score of 24-5.
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La Dea have never won eight straight matches against a single opponent in their Serie A history, but their four straight wins without conceding at home to Parma is already a club record.
Just when it seems Gian Piero Gasperini can do no more, he has now guided Atalanta to their best-ever Serie A finish, entering the final day assured of third place on 74 points, meaning they have qualified for the Champions League for the fifth time in seven seasons.
There may be some slight regrets, given they lost three straight league games just under two months ago, and dropped points at home to Lecce recently, because if they had won just one of those four matches, they would still be in the race for the title this weekend.
Form has returned in emphatic style to end the campaign though, as Atalanta have won three in a row against Monza, Roma and Genoa, scoring nine goals in the process, and another here will see them equal their highest tally for wins in a single season (23).
Beating teams in the bottom nine has been a specialty of La Dea this season, as they have taken a whopping 43 points from a possible 51 against such clubs this season, which should provide additional confidence for this fixture.
Team News
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It will be no surprise if Ademola Lookman leaves Atalanta this summer, after three fantastic years in Bergamo, and after being dropped last week, Gasperini will surely reinstate him for a potential farewell this weekend.
Berat Djimsiti is back from suspension, but the hosts are without a number of first-team players, especially at the back, where Rafael Toloi, Juan Cuadrado, Giorgio Scalvini, Sead Kolasinac and Stefan Posch are all battling injury.
Gianluca Scamacca is also with a muscular problem, so Serie A Capocannoniere Mateo Retegui should start in attack, but it is Ibrahim Sulemana who has been the surprise man-in-form of late, hitting goals in back-to-back games after barely featuring all season.
Parma will have Lautaro Valenti available again after he served a suspension in the draw with Napoli following his dismissal against Empoli.
That is the only positive when it comes to team selection though, as Chivu is without numerous important players for this season finale.
Romanian duo Dennis Man and Valentin Mihaila are set to miss out in attack, along with Matteo Cancellieri, Yordan Osorio, Mateusz Kowalski, Gabriel Charpentier and Giovanni Leoni.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Djimsiti, De Roon; Bellanova, Sulemana, Ederson, Zappacosta; De Ketelaere, Retegui, Lookman
Parma possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Balogh, Leoni, Valenti; Del Prato, Ondrejka, Keita, Sohm, Valeri; Pellegrino, Bonny
We say: Atalanta 4-2 Parma
Atalanta have nothing to play for and Parma are fighting for their lives, but that does not mean the hosts will not still be the big favourites, especially given their superb recent form, and the visitors may be in dire need of a favour from elsewhere.
One thing which is certain is that there will be plenty of goalmouth action, because Atalanta have netted 76 goals this season, while both teams have scored in 24 of Parma’s 37 Serie A matches, and the visitors are the bottom-half’s top scorers.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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