Are we witnessing the end of the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ hierarchy?

As the Europa League slogfest between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United unfolded in Bilbao, there will have been contrasting emotions at home and abroad.

Clubs on the continent will have felt a shiver of self-consciousness about the level of their leagues, with the Premier League’s 16th- and 17th-best sides reaching the final.

For the growing cluster of aspirational clubs in England’s top flight, however, they must have watched on gleefully and fancied their chances of finishing above both again next season.

As the Premier League table ties up its loose ends this weekend, it is that change of mindset among most clubs that should scare Manchester United, who have taken just two points from the last 24.

They host Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Sunday and it is significant as, despite only two wins in 29 at the ground, the visitors go there as favourites.

But it could also have wider ramifications. It is a meeting that could have a seismic say in whether the established order of the Premier League remains intact in the coming years.

When pondering the permanent disruption of the ‘Big Six’ of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Spurs over the last decade, it has been concluded that a perfect storm is required for a team to join or even knock one of the teams off their perch for good.

The formula consists of an existing member missing out on the Champions League for three consecutive seasons and one of the wannabes qualifying for Europe’s top-tier competition for three consecutive seasons.

Champions League income is the only way to alter the status quo as it generates a minimum of £30million ($40.6m) but, with progress in the knockouts and a strong coefficient, can be worth between £100million and £150m.

No disruptors have even managed two in a row, but victory in Manchester could see Unai Emery’s team break that glass ceiling if any of Manchester City, Newcastle United or Chelsea lose their final game.

Newcastle, at home to Everton on Sunday, failed to sustain the momentum of their first Champions League campaign in 21 years two seasons ago, but they could make it two years out of three if they get the required result.

If those are the two teams on track to glueing themselves onto the pack, United look in the most peril in peeling off.

The last time they made it to the Champions League in consecutive seasons was 2020-21 and 2021-22, but their failure to win the Europa League and access the top-tier competition via the back door, as Spurs have, means they will be without European football altogether for the first time in 10 years.

United are still the fourth-richest club in the world in terms of revenue, but others have caught up and the loss in Bilbao has put a financial hole of around £80million in an already hampered business.

United have lost their fear factor while the Premier League’s middle class begin to feel more ambitious than ever.

With promoted teams finding it increasingly impossible to bridge the financial gap over one summer — all six have gone down the last two seasons — how many Premier League clubs will start August aiming purely to survive?

Wolverhampton Wanderers? Everton? They have had to adopt that mindset the last few years but the latter has changed owner, built a new stadium that will lift revenues and put David Moyes back in place, hoping to recapture the spirit that saw them finish in the top eight every season between 2006-07 and 2013-14.

Palace come closest, given they have finished between 10th and 15th, amassing between 45 and 49 points (possibly 52 this season), in every year of their 12-season stay in the Premier League, but it is still the longest unbroken stretch in the league and they now have the belief that comes with a trophy.

Simply existing used to be the case but not now, especially given exactly half the league could be competing in Europe next season.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs will be in the Champions League, joined by three of Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest.

Brighton and Brentford have both shown smaller clubs can establish themselves in the Premier League (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)

Chelsea are guaranteed Europe in some form but if they win their Conference League final and finish seventh, an additional spot opens up for the eighth-placed team, which would see one of Brighton and Brentford enter the stage.

If the latter get a taste of European football for the first time in their history, it will mean that, of the 17 Premier League teams who will not be relegated this season, only Fulham and Bournemouth will not have played in Europe since 2017-18, when Everton were last in the Europa League.

Palace, West Ham and Newcastle all ended major trophy droughts in the last two years, too.

If Chelsea do not secure a top-five spot, it will mean that half of the ‘Big Six’ fail to make those places this season. How many times does the order need to be upended before the tag is officially dead?

“t’s true to say that now,” says a Premier League sporting director, speaking anonymously to protect relationships.

“Especially when we see the financial mess Manchester United have. We are talking about a new top 12 as opposed to an old top four or six. That group of 12 and maybe 14 will become the ones who consistently fight to be in the top six or eight.”

If that comes to fruition and European football is no longer guaranteed for the traditional big teams, it would go a long way in breaking the revenue gap that has provided a competitive buffer.

There will be no European football at Old Trafford in 2025-26 (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

United’s decline this season is extreme, but a bad year for one of the big boys would usually be written off as an anomaly, remedied by hoovering up talent from smaller clubs.

Sir Alex Ferguson made it almost compulsory to go and sign the top scorer or best player in the league as a show of strength. If they weren’t improving you, they were at least weakening their opponents.

Profit and sustainability rules have played a part but the little guys do not see why they should remain halfway down the food chain anymore.

The mid-table teams have put together their best squads for several years without needing to sell, a luxury engendered by a boom in broadcast revenue.

Palace have kept Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze, while Forest, the breakout team of this season, have a list of players attracting major clubs in England and Europe. Morgan Gibbs-White, Murillo, Anthony Elanga, Elliot Anderson, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Nikola Milenkovic are all worth big money.

It is possible that a few could go this summer but, as is increasingly the case, none have buy-outs in their contracts, which offers the club protection and the ability to drive a hard bargain.

Could it be that the hierarchy is already dead?

“I think so,” Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta replied when asked by The Athletic this month.

“The level has gone, again, to something bigger than what we experienced in the previous twelve months. I know a lot of the coaches and we had discussions about that as well.

“It’s frightening the way it’s evolving, how competitive it is coming, how difficult it is to win. The margins really for whether you win or not in the Premier League are incredible. Nxt season is going to be even more difficult.

“If you ask any manager at the end of the season, ‘Can you promise to be in the Champions League next season?’, I don’t know who is going to say yes. That tells you the story.”

Mikel Arteta believes the Premier League is more competitive than ever (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)

It is the consolidation of the Premier League middle class and the condensing of the league as a whole.

Between 2009-10, the start of the ‘Big Six’ era, and 2017-18, the team finishing 10th never accrued more than 50 points (average 47.3 points). Since then, including this year with 10th-placed Fulham already on 54 points, it has happened six out of seven seasons (average 53 points).

At the same time, the occupier of what used to be the final Champions League spot in fourth place averaged 71.7 points in that first period, compared with 68.5 in the last six years.

The average points gap between fourth and 10th was 24.4 in the first period but only 15.5 since, with the current gap between Newcastle and Fulham just 12 points.

Within that, the peloton of five teams competing for the Champions League are separated by only three points, while the group of Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, Bournemouth, Palace — the poster boys of doing everything ‘right’ — are within six points of each other.

The presence of Pep Guardiola has stretched out the league in recent years as Manchester City averaged 91 points over the last seven seasons, but even they may be returning to a more human baseline (maximum of 71 points this season).

The temptation has been to assume that one team must assume their dominance, but what if teams start winning with ‘normal’ points totals again?

Given the breadth of the chasing pack, a less defined, open field may mean that ‘doing a Leicester’ no longer carries the shock value it did in 2016.

(Top photo: David Ramos/Getty Images)

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