Premier League’s biggest finale ‘since forever,’ plus Knicks on the brink

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Good morning! Qualify for something special this weekend.

Champions: Soccer’s $200 million Sunday

The Premier League title race has been over for a month, thanks to Liverpool’s dominant season. But this final weekend is still one of the most suspenseful the league has ever had.

The top five clubs in the EPL table get Champions League spots next season, and three of the five spots remain unsettled, with five teams vying for them. All 20 Premier League clubs play their final match at 11 a.m. ET tomorrow, and there will be lots of score-watching. Here’s a detailed primer on the race for the finish.

The top of the table is locked in:

1. Liverpool (83 points)

2. Arsenal (71 points, secured by a tiebreaker)

But then comes the fun:

3. Manchester City (68 points, visiting Fulham)

4. Newcastle United (66 points, hosting Everton)

5. Chelsea (66 points, visiting Nottingham Forest)

6. Aston Villa (66 points, visiting Manchester United)

7. Nottingham Forest (65 points, hosting Chelsea)

That Forest-Chelsea match (USA, Peacock) is the week’s blockbuster. Widely expected to flirt with relegation this year, Forest has instead moneyballed their way into scrappy contention. 

Tons of possibilities abound, with teams No. 3 through 7 set to scramble themselves on the final day. So, this is the most dramatic Premier League finale since when? I asked Phil Hay, lead writer of the excellent (and free) The Athletic FC newsletter:

💬 Some might say since Aguerooooooo! in 2012. But in terms of Champions League qualification alone, since forever. I can’t remember it being this much of a bunfight. And the irony is that six Premier League teams will be in next season’s Champions League (Tottenham included, by virtue of winning the Europa League), so technically, it should have been easier than ever to make it. But here we are.

Seventeenth-place Tottenham making the Champions League by beating 16th-place Manchester United on Wednesday was a hoot. The NFL should create a playoff like this for the Jets.

One follow-up: Most will agree that Man City and Chelsea are big, bad bullies who get to play in the Champions League enough, so unaffiliated fans should root against them. But of the three non-“Big Six” clubs in contention, who should we prioritize in our rooting interest? 

💬 No Premier League club is as pure as the driven snow. Let’s be straight about that. But if you like an insurgent team with a puncher’s chance, you have to be in Nottingham Forest’s corner. Last season, they fought relegation throughout. A win over Chelsea tomorrow could take them into Europe’s top competition. They last featured in it 25 days before I was born (I’m 44). It’s a quantum leap.

Another massive part of the stakes? Cash. Just showing up in the Champions League is worth about $21 million to a club, and a bigger one will make tens of millions more even if it loses every game. A behemoth like United misses out on several times that much by not making it, a shortfall that will materially affect its roster management.

All told, the high end of Champions League performance these days can reach $215 million, per The Athletic’s calculations. Good work if you can get it. (United cannot.)

News to Know

Knicks in serious trouble

The Knicks will head to Indiana facing an 0-2 hole after dropping both games at Madison Square Garden. New York held Game 1 hero Tyrese Haliburton to just two points in the first half, but last night was about Pascal Siakam, who dropped a playoff career-high 39 points on 15-of-23 shooting. The Knicks nearly out-Pacered the Pacers, climbing back from 10 down with 2:25 to go. But this Indiana team refuses to lose in the clutch, this time winning 114-109. How many teams have come back after losing Games 1 and 2 at home in the conference finals, you ask? Zero.

Oilers bounce back in big way

The Oilers evened the Western Conference Final at one game apiece with a 3-0 win last night after being blitzed by the Stars in Game 1. Stuart Skinner has now recorded shutouts in all three of his wins this postseason — a bonkers stat, considering the 20 (!) goals he’s given up in four losses.

All-NBA teams announced

The NBA announced its all-league teams yesterday, with no real surprises across the board. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum were unanimous first-team selections. Donovan Mitchell beat out Anthony Edwards and LeBron James to take the last first-team spot. This year’s biggest winner? Cade Cunningham, who essentially earned a $45 million raise by making his first career All-NBA team. Not too shabby. See the full teams here.

More news:

Watch Guide

📺 WNBA: Liberty at Fever

1 p.m. ET on CBS

A network TV showdown in Indianapolis pits the reigning WNBA champs against Caitlin Clark and friends. With the Fever ascending, these are now two of the top three teams in The Athletic’s WNBA power rankings.

📺 NHL: Hurricanes at Panthers, Game 3 

8 p.m. ET on TNT

The Panthers come home up 2-0, looking intent on winning their second Stanley Cup in a row. A win tonight all but wraps up a second straight Cup Final appearance (although the Panthers did cough up a 3-0 lead in last year’s final before coming through in Game 7). Carolina has lost 14 consecutive conference finals games, a number that doesn’t feel possible. It’s a crisis.

📺 NBA: Thunder at Timberwolves, Game 3 

8:30 p.m. ET on ABC 

Minnesota, down 2-0, has tried a bit of everything on defense to slow down Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Chet Holmgren and company. The Thunder may just be a problem without a viable solution. These guys are just overwhelming.

Note: In a “What to Watch” entry last weekend, I (Alex) wrote incorrectly that racehorse Journalism, the favorite at the Preakness Stakes, had the second-best odds to win rather than the best. I regret the error and hope I motivated his victory.

Get tickets to games like these here.

Pulse Picks

The Athletic’s weekly news quiz.

Another reason to love our half-cousins at Wirecutter: Often their No. 1 recommendation is cheap as hell. Three bucks for the best BBQ sauce!? Let’s go! — Chris Sprow

I really liked this Lindsay Schnell story on the offensive explosion in college softball, the sport that “loves the 98-pound slapper as much as it loves the 292-pound catcher.” — Jason Kirk

This fun Q&A with former Seahawks teammates Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright about how they navigated the intersection of their personal and professional relationships.

Season 2 of “Poker Face,” the bingeable murder mystery series from Rian Johnson starring Natasha Lyonne. Good plots, great cast, recommended if you liked “Knives Out.” Season 1 was equally addicting. — Mark Cooper

A different kind of dunk 🏊 My neighborhood pool opens on Monday … assuming Pittsburgh’s monsoon season ends in time. — Alex Iniguez

Josh Yohe’s piece on Marc-André Fleury’s fitting swan song with Team Canada at the World Championships alongside Sidney Crosby.

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Dan Robson’s initial story on Brett Howden’s testimony in the Hockey Canada trial. 

Most-read on the website yesterday: David Ornstein’s newser on Liverpool’s major boost in their pursuit of Florian Wirtz.

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(Top photo: Justin Setterfield / Getty Images)

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