As they try to claw their way into the top two of their World Cup Qualifying group, Estonia will welcome in-form Norway to A. Le Coq Arena on Monday.
Sinisargid will be hoping to bounce back from defeat last time out, while Lovene are aiming to continue their 100% record in Group I.
Match preview
Jurgen Henn‘s Estonia have struggled over the past year with six losses, one draw and just two wins since June 2024, and having tasted defeat in two of their three matches in 2025, their hopes of making the World Cup look bleak.
On Friday, Sinisargid were beaten 3-1 in a crucial six-pointer by Israel, and the manager will be particularly frustrated by the fact that his team lost despite initially taking a first-half lead through Mattias Kait.
Dropping three points has left Henn’s side third in the table, and their one win and two losses from their first three qualifying games has them three from second and six behind first-placed Norway.
To make matters worse, the hosts have lost all but three of their 10 home fixtures since 2022, and with just one victory from those three – a 3-1 triumph over Azerbaijan in October 2024 – fans would be forgiven for doubting their team’s chances at A. Le Coq Arena.
If Estonia can overcome the odds to take maximum points on Monday, then they could go level on six points with Israel, though they would need a four goal difference swing to climb up to second.
Meanwhile, Stale Solbakken‘s Norway are the form team in Group I, and with three wins from three, they are the clear favourites to qualify for the World Cup in top spot.
Last time out, Lovene earned another three points with a 3-0 victory over Italy, courtesy of first-half goals from Alexander Sorloth, Antonio Nusa and Erling Haaland.
That triumph has Solbakken’s men three ahead of second-placed Israel and six ahead of their opponents as the halfway mark of their group-stage campaign approaches.
As they seek to maintain their perfect record, the visitors will be aware of the fact that they have performed better at home than on the road, but they will draw confidence from their three away wins on the bounce prior to this clash.
A fourth victory could take Norway six points clear at the top of the group, but defeat would give Israel the chance to go level on nine with four games to play.
Estonia World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
Estonia form (all competitions):
Norway World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
Norway form (all competitions):
Team News
Mattias Kait, Estonia’s goalscorer last time out, should start once again in an attacking midfield position behind striker Alex Tamm.
Out wide, Ioan Yakovlev and Vlasiy Sinyavskiy will be providing support for the centre-forward, while full-backs Michael Schjonning-Larsen and Joseph Saliste offer overlapping runs.
As for Norway, Erling Haaland will start up top alongside Alexander Sorloth and Antonio Nusa, and the goalscoring trio will be hoping to make it four wins from four on Monday.
Captain Martin Odegaard should be joined in midfield by Sander Berge and Morten Thorsby, while centre-backs Kristoffer Ajer and Torbjorn Heggem operate at the heart of Solbakken’s defence.
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Saliste; Soomets, Shein; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Tamm
Norway possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe; Odegaard, Berge, Thorsby; Sorloth, Haaland, Nusa
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We say: Estonia 1-3 Norway
Estonia have struggled over the past 12 months, and given their poor home record, they are unlikely to walk away with anything from this game.
Additionally, Norway are in excellent form, having scored three or more goals in each of their last five matches, and they will be expecting to continue their 100% streak in Group I on Monday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Norway win with a probability of 81.31%. A draw has a probability of 11.8% and a win for Estonia has a probability of 6.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norway win is 0-2 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-3 (10.16%) and 1-2 (8.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (5.4%), while for a Estonia win it is 2-1 (2.14%).
