Visitors North Macedonia could leapfrog Wales in first place of their World Cup qualifying group on Monday should they beat Kazakhstan at Astana Arena.
The hosts are third with three points from two games in their five-team group, whereas North Macedonia are two points and one place behind Wales with five points after playing three matches, and they managed to hold Belgium to a 1-1 draw on Friday.
Match preview
Kazakhstan beat Liechtenstein 2-0 on March 25 in their most recent qualifying fixture, a game in which they limited their opponents to just three shots, with the final attempt coming in the 33rd minute.
It should be highlighted that the home side have been vulnerable at the back having conceded 24 goals in their last 10 outings.
Manager Ali Aliev’s side have never qualified for the World Cup as an independent nation, and it is difficult to see them reaching the finals of the 2026 tournament given they share a group with the likes of Belgium and Wales.
The Hawks have won two of their past four matches in all competitions – losing two – but they have lost 12 of their last 15 while winning just twice.
Kazakhstan defeated Curacao 2-0 on March 19 in their most recent home fixture, but they suffered three defeats and were held to one stalemate in their prior four at Astana Arena.
As for North Macedonia, they only mustered 32% possession against Belgium but matched their opponents’ two big chances while also limiting them to just one shot inside the box in the second half.
Boss Blagoja Milevski will be delighted with his side’s performances of late considering they are unbeaten in nine – winning six – and were able to hold Wales and Belgium to draws in their past two.
Lavovi also kept six clean sheets in those six victories, but it is important to highlight that their wins came against Armenia (x2), Latvia (x2), Faroe Islands and Liechtenstein, with Armenia the highest ranked FIFA side amongst the quartet in 102nd place.
North Macedonia triumphed 4-0 in June 2021 when the side’s last met, though Kazakhstan were reduced to 10 men in the 45th minute.
While the visitors have emerged victorious in three and drawn one of their four most recent outings on their travels, they were defeated in their prior five on the road.
Kazakhstan World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
Kazakhstan form (all competitions):
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
North Macedonia World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
North Macedonia form (all competitions):
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
Team News
Kazakhstan could station goalkeeper Mukhamedjan Seisen behind central defenders Marat Bystrov, Aleksandr Marochkin and Nuraly Alip.
Given midfielders Ramazan Orazov and Georgy Zhukov were paired together against Liechtenstein, they are likely to start together on Monday.
In the forward line, expect wide players Islam Chesnokov and Maksim Samorodov to flank striker Dastan Satpayev.
As for North Macedonia, centre-backs Andrej Stojchevski, Gjoko Zajkov and Visar Musliu are almost certain to be trusted to protect shot-stopper Stole Dimitrievski.
An attacking trio of Enis Bardhi, Bojan Miovski and Eljif Elmas could be positioned in front of midfielders Jani Atanasov and Tihomir Kostadinov.
Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Seisen; Bystrov, Marochkin, Alip; Astanov, Orazov, Zhukov, Vorogovskiy; Chesnokov, Samorodov; Satpayev
North Macedonia possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Zajkov, Stojchevski, Musliu; Ilievski, Atanasov, Kostadinov, Alioski; Bardhi; Miovski, Elmas
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We say: Kazakhstan 0-1 North Macedonia
It is difficult to see Kazakhstan avoiding defeat on Monday given they have frequently been beaten in the past weeks.
Despite the fact that North Macedonia’s recent opponents have not been of the highest calibre, they will still arrive at Astana Arena full of confidence after a period of positive results, so they should be expected to win.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a North Macedonia win with a probability of 55.14%. A draw has a probability of 25.2% and a win for Kazakhstan has a probability of 19.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (11.23%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Kazakhstan win it is 1-0 (7.46%).
