Mainz 05 will be looking to consolidate their place in the top four of the Bundesliga when they welcome basement club Holstein Kiel to MEWA Arena on Saturday afternoon.
Victory for the hosts would see them complete the double over the visitors after winning the reverse fixture 3-0 at Holstein-Stadion in November.
Match preview
After winning four consecutive Bundesliga matches between mid-February and the beginning of March, Mainz have since picked up just one point across their last two top-flight fixtures, drawing 2-2 with Freiburg and losing 3-1 at Borussia Dortmund either side of the international break.
A late Paul Nebel goal could not prevent the 05ers from succumbing to Dortmund last weekend, and while they remain fourth in the table, securing Champions League football for the first time in their history is certainly not a given, as there are only seven point separating themselves from BVB in 10th with seven games still left to play.
Despite failing to win their last two games, Mainz are still enjoying their best ever Bundesliga campaign, boasting 45 points after 27 matches. The 05ers have not lost any of their last nine games played on a Saturday (W7 D2) – the longest ongoing run in the division – and each of their last five defeats have been suffered on a different day of the week.
Bo Henriksen‘s side are also unbeaten in each of their last nine Bundesliga home matches (W6 D3) – the longest ongoing run in the division – beating the likes of Dortmund (3-1), Bayern Munich (2-1) and Stuttgart (2-0) in the process.
Mainz ran out comfortable winners against Holstein Kiel by a three-goal margin in the reverse fixture, but they head into this weekend’s contest having lost six of their seven top-flight home matches against Bundesliga debutants – the exception being a 5-0 victory over Paderborn in January 2015.
Holstein Kiel are facing an uphill battle to preserve their top-flight status as they currently sit rock bottom of the Bundesliga table with only 17 points after 27 games – since three points per win was introduced, the only top-flight debutants who have accumulated fewer points at this stage are Greuther Furth (15 in 2012-13).
Die Storche’s back-to-back defeats against relegation rivals Heidenheim and 12th-placed Werder Bremen, losing 3-0 at home to the latter last weekend, has coincided with Heidenheim winning their last two matches to boost their survival hopes.
Indeed, Kiel – who failed to register a single shot on target in their defeat to Bremen – currently sit five points adrift of Heidenheim in 16th place, and since the relegation playoffs were introduced, only Borussia Monchengladbach (2010-11) and Werder Bremen (2019-20) have ever made up a five-point deficit this late on in a Bundesliga season.
Kiel have won just one of their 13 Bundesliga away matches this season and head coach Marcel Rapp has encouraged his players to “step up a gear” and “do better in our challenges against Mainz” as they attempt to pull off a great escape and avoid slipping back down into the second tier.
Team News
Mainz are still having to cope without injured duo Stefan Bell (hamstring) and Maxim Dal (muscle), while Dominik Kohr will serve the final game of a two-match ban this weekend, with Andreas Hanche-Olsen the most likely candidate to deputise in defence.
Germany international Jonathan Burkardt, who has scored a team-high 16 goals this season, recently recovered from illness and is expected to lead the line, with Nebel and Lee Jae-sung set to provide support in attack.
As for Holstein Kiel, Patrick Erras (concussion), Andu Kelati, Colin Kleine-Bekel (both knee), Ivan Nekic and Benedikt Pichler (both muscle) are all unavailable for selection.
Former Tottenham Hotspur, Blackburn Rovers and Schalke 04 midfielder Lewis Holtby, 34, will be hoping to force his way into the first XI ahead of Alexander Bernhardsson, while joint-top scorer Shuto Machino – who along with Phil Harres has eight goals to his name this term – could replace Steven Skrzybski up front.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Da Costa, Jenz, Hanche-Olsen; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Dahne; Becker, Zec, Komenda; Porath, Knudsen, Remberg, Tolkin; Bernhardsson; Machino, Harres
We say: Mainz 05 2-0 Holstein Kiel
Only twice in the Bundesliga have Mainz ever lost a home game against a team sitting bottom of the table – the last of those came back in 2014 against Werder Bremen (2-1) – and it is difficult to envisage the 05ers coming up short in this contest.
Indeed, Henriksen’s side will be regarded as favourites for this weekend’s match, despite their recent wobble, and they should have enough quality in their side to secure a routine home victory to keep their top-four hopes alive.
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