Things are heating up in (a particular section of) the Premier League.
As football fans enjoyed a fine slate of Champions League action in midweek, for a few top-flight clubs it was a reminder of what could be theirs in 2025-26 if they manage to complete one simple task: finish in the top five.
Since we last examined the top five race, the following has happened:
Opta’s supercomputer continues to project that champions-elect Liverpool (obviously) and Arsenal have the top two places locked up, but there has been movement elsewhere.
Newcastle are now the favourites to maintain their new third-place berth, with Manchester City in fourth and Forest hanging on — just — to fifth place ahead of an increasingly ominous-looking Aston Villa. Chelsea, meanwhile, are now most likely to end in seventh.
But raw numbers alone cannot convey the hopes and fears that grip football clubs and their supporters at this point of the season.
So here’s our weekly vibe check at each of the top five contenders, plus a reminder of why reaching the Champions League remains so important.
A continental Animal Farm: Why UEFA’s ‘value pillar’ is an important Champions League detail
With Aston Villa’s European dream dying valiantly on Tuesday night, and alongside it any chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League by winning this year’s iteration, we’re left with an impossible equation: five into three won’t go.
Villa’s only route to the competition is now through their league finish and, with just five points separating five teams from third to seventh, something has to give.
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For their efforts this term, Villa have banked over £70million ($93m). Even in this age of hyper-inflated sums swirling around football, that’s quite a lot — it’s over a quarter of what their total revenue was in 2023-24.
Qualify again and they’ll see their immediate share of the UEFA spoils jump up, due to the way the governing body rewards past successes. This year, Villa’s share of the ‘value pillar’ was hindered by their relative lack of experience in European competition, with the previous year’s run to the Conference League semi-finals the only thing contributing to their UEFA coefficient. Making the last eight of the Champions League has improved their standing in that regard.
Villa’s example reflects the inequity of UEFA’s prize money distribution, even as all Champions League clubs stick their hands in an ever-increasing pot of cash. Everyone in the league phase starts from the same spot, and everyone gets around £16m just for being there, but some are more equal than others. Kind of like a continental Animal Farm.
Villa had some big Champions League nights this season — will they be back? (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Newcastle United were a perfect representation of that two years ago, when their Champions League return banked them £24m less in prize money than Manchester United, despite Newcastle earning a point more (both sides did finish bottom of their respective groups). Where United received £25m from the coefficient pillar (since replaced by the value pillar, which still incorporates club coefficients), Newcastle earned just £4m.
The club to lose out the most in that regard this time would be Nottingham Forest, whose last European venture of any kind came when Frank Clark was manager and John Major was prime minister. Still, they’d hardly sniff at the riches headed their way.
Forest have inhabited the top five for much of the season, and staying there until the end should bank them close to £30m in European prize money straightaway. Or, in other words, as much as the club’s entire annual revenue in their promotion season of just three years ago.
Chris Weatherspoon
How are the contenders feeling?
With six games to go, there is still plenty of time for any of the clubs chasing a top-five finish to put together a good — or bad — run that transforms their prospects entirely.
Newcastle are in a great position and in excellent form, but have tough fixtures remaining. As do Villa (the two sides play each other on Saturday, in fact, before Villa face City in midweek) and Chelsea, whereas Manchester City and Nottingham Forest have theoretically kinder games coming up. But then again, at this stage of the season, does that even apply?
Newcastle United
Forget the race for the Champions League, third-placed Newcastle are now in a race to catch Arsenal in second.
Eddie Howe (from his sickbed) and Jason Tindall (from the training ground) will rightly caution against jumping to such conclusions, but supporters would be forgiven for looking upwards with optimism, rather than peering back over their shoulders with trepidation.
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With six wins in succession in all competitions, including the Carabao Cup final triumph over Liverpool, Newcastle are the Premier League’s in-form side. Nine goals were scored inside four days during consecutive drubbings of Manchester United and Crystal Palace, with only one conceded.
Sandro Tonali is expertly running matches, Jacob Murphy is doing a decent impression of a prime Kevin De Bruyne with his assists and spectacular finishes, Harvey Barnes keeps scoring and Alexander Isak has now reached 25 goals for the season.
Jacob Murphy is leading Newcastle’s charge to a top-five finish (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
A trip to Aston Villa awaits this weekend with Unai Emery’s side boasting an additional day’s rest. Yet Newcastle’s recent record against Villa is excellent, with Howe’s team regularly exploiting Emery’s high defensive line, and Tindall will lead a team brimming with confidence to the West Midlands.
Newcastle became the first Premier League side since Sunderland in 2016 to name the same starting XI for six straight matches across all competitions, and that may well extend to seven on Saturday.
There may still be six games left, but with such a five-point cushion over sixth-placed Chelsea, and given their present momentum, Newcastle are now massive favourites to return to the Champions League.
Chris Waugh
Nottingham Forest
The Brennan Johnson derby on Monday evening feels like a massive game for Nottingham Forest.
Not just because it could be a reunion with the man they sold to Tottenham Hotspur for £47.5million in the summer of 2023, but because consecutive defeats have dented the previously buoyant mood around the City Ground.
The loss to Aston Villa was easier to take because of the manner of Forest’s second-half performance and the fact that they deserved something from a game against one of the in-form sides in the division.
In contrast, Everton’s 1-0 win at the City Ground last Saturday felt more concerning, largely because David Moyes’ side effectively managed to stop Forest doing all the things that have made them, well, so Forest-like this season.
How costly will Forest’s defeat to Everton prove to be? (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
A game against Ange Postecoglou’s perennially open Tottenham should, in theory, be perfectly suited to Forest’s counter-attacking style. But with the chasing pack having made up a lot of ground in the space of two games, a win in the capital would be more than timely.
Paul Taylor
Manchester City
This is going to be a very big week for City, with not just Everton away on Saturday but Aston Villa at home on Tuesday, before the FA Cup semi-final against Nottingham Forest next Sunday.
Things are looking much more positive after the 5-2 victory against Crystal Palace, allaying the early fears that City would be outpaced by one of the form teams in the league.
City have found their form at the right moment (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
The five different scorers in the game also suggested they might just get by without Erling Haaland, too.
Given how the season has gone so far, nobody at City is going to get carried away with anything, and a trip to Goodison Park is exactly the kind of thing a vulnerable side would struggle with. Pep Guardiola says his teams have got their ‘spirit’ back in the last couple of weeks — this will be a stern test of whether that is the case.
Sam Lee
Chelsea
Enzo Maresca did his best to play down the significance of Chelsea dropping two more points at home to Ipswich Town on Sunday, but it is clear his team should now be regarded as outsiders to finish in the top five.
Chelsea have not beaten anyone in the Premier League’s top half since December. The one thing that has kept them afloat during the last four months has been an ability to handle their business at home against the league’s worst teams — an ability that deserted them at the worst possible time against Ipswich.
Maresca and Chelsea might have dropped the ball at the worst possible moment (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
What remains is the hardest run-in faced by any of the Champions League qualification contenders.
Chelsea go into it woefully out of form away from home and with an increasingly toxic atmosphere at Stamford Bridge, which will not be helped by Maresca citing “the environment” as a factor in the first-half performance on Sunday.
Liam Twomey
Aston Villa
Confidence remains high at Villa. They are the Premier League’s most in-form side, with last week’s 3-0 victory against Southampton the first time Villa have won four successive league matches since April 2023.
Villa believe they have reached a stage in their season where they are at their optimal, with every first-team player available and Unai Emery managing to lean into that squad depth to rotate effectively. Villa’s valiant, toe-to-toe performance against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League second leg quarter-final arguably reached levels they had not reached in a generation and came so close to completing an unlikely comeback.
Villa performed admirably in the Champions League this week (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
At home especially, Villa feel they can beat anyone, having last lost in the league there in August 2024 and with Newcastle the next to visit, feel they can take a major step in securing a return to the Champions League.
Jacob Tanswell
Any other business?
The Premier League’s mid-table sides continue to thwart each other, with Bournemouth’s 1-0 win against Fulham on Monday ending the spell of form that saw Andoni Iraola’s side fall out of contention for the top five, and simultaneously all but end Fulham’s faint hopes of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
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And some teams can ignore the Premier League table. A Champions League spot is available to the winners of the Europa League, so Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur — 14th and 15th in the table coming into this weekend — can celebrate being a step nearer to an alternative route into the Champions League, having both navigated their way through dramatic Europa League quarter-finals on Thursday evening.
(Header photos: Getty Images)
