By Graham Ruthven, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk
Introducing our expert
Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway. He was Fantasy Premier League champion for the 2023/24 season, finishing ahead of 11 million other managers. So who better to provide expert advice?
Read his expert advice every week.
*Don’t forget the early FPL deadline for this round – with two games on Friday night make your transfers and get your team sorted before 6pm BST on Friday 16 May*
The Eye Test vs. The Stats
Bukayo Saka (10.3m) has been a frustrating FPL asset to own lately.
While the Arsenal winger is back in action after a period out through injury, Mikel Arteta has rested him in several Premier League matches to keep him fresh for the Champions League.
Now, of course, the Gunners are out of the Champions League with Arteta’s team also only playing for pride in the league with their top five place all but secured.
Having failed to deliver a FPL return in any of his last six games, Saka’s recent form has been underwhelming. However, his underlying numbers make for betting reading, suggesting he could soon find his best form again.
Saka is averaging an impressive 0.76 Expected Goal Involvements (xGI) per 90 minutes this season. On top of this, the Arsenal winger created four chances and missed one Big Chance against Liverpool. He could have finished with more than just two points.
Arsenal have a tricky game against Newcastle this weekend with the Magpies chasing Champions League qualification. However, the North London outfit have bottom side Southampton on the final day. Saka could be in line for a big haul.
Ollie Watkins (8.9m) has flown under the radar this season, particularly compared to previous seasons of FPL.
The Aston Villa forward has given FPL managers a headache in recent weeks with Unai Emery chopping and changing between Watkins and Marcus Rashford. Now, though, Watkins is in line to start the final two games of the season with Rashford sidelined through injury.
Watkins has notched 23 goal involvements (16 goals, seven assists) from an xGI of 16.6 this season. This translates to 0.61 xGI per 90 minutes, highlighting the Villa forward’s natural ability to put the ball in the back of the net.
Rashford’s injury, and Marco Asensio’s recent misses from the spot, means Watkins could be on penalties for Aston Villa to finish the campaign. Villa have fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in GW37 and GW38, which might be two favourable fixtures such is the contrasting priorities of the teams in question. Watkins could be a smart pick.
Long shot
Pedro Neto (6.1m) is owned by just 1.3% of FPL managers, and this isn’t surprising considering how the Chelsea winger has performed all season.
However, Nicolas Jackson’s red card against Newcastle United means Neto could start as a centre forward for Chelsea in the final two games of the season with other options such as Marc Guiu and Christopher Nkunku injury doubts.
Tyrique George (4.5m) has been mentioned by some as a potential candidate to start up front after performing this role in the Conference League, but Neto would be a more experienced choice. He has, after all, played there in the Premier League this season. He has also played 90 minutes in his last five league outings.
Chelsea host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge this weekend. Ruben Amorim could rest several players with the Europa League final around the corner and so this could be a good opportunity for the Blues to continue their challenge for Champions League qualification.
Upcoming games to follow
There are a handful of matches worth following from a FPL point of view this weekend.
Aston Villa welcome Tottenham Hotspur on Friday night with the hosts desperate for points to finish in the top five. Watkins, Morgan Rogers (5.7m) and maybe even Asensio (6.1m) are players who could be worth a punt.
Another match on Friday night will be worth your attention with Chelsea taking on Manchester United.
Enzo Maresca’s team are in a similar spot to Villa in their efforts to make the Champions League while United are in a similar spot to Spurs ahead of the Europa League final next week. Cole Palmer (10.5m), Neto and Marc Cucurella (5.4m) should be on your radar for this match.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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