Seeking a place in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals, European heavyweights Italy and Germany will convene at San Siro on Thursday, for the first leg of their quarter-final tie.
While the Germans went unbeaten on their way to topping League A Group 3, their Italian counterparts were runners-up to France in Group 2; now, they meet for the first time since a spectacular seven-goal clash in 2022.
Match preview
After making a disappointing defence of their continental crown at Euro 2024, new-look Italy initially stormed through their latest Nations League group, before losing at home to France, who they had surprisingly beaten 3-1 in Paris.
As a result, the Azzurri had to settle for second place, but that was still enough to reach the inaugural quarter-final stage of UEFA’s newest international competition.
With four wins from five before suffering defeat to Les Bleus in Milan, Luciano Spalletti‘s side have clearly benefited from a change of tactical approach and selection policy, so hopes of a first Nations League triumph are very much alive.
Having won Euro 2020 only to miss out on qualification for the two World Cups either side, Italy’s priority remains reaching the 2026 global finals; but first they must tackle an old foe – and with plenty at stake.
Not only will the winners over two legs make into the last four, but they will also play host to this summer’s finals tournament; so, Spalletti’s squad are intent on reversing the result of the teams’ most recent meeting.
Following a 1-1 home draw in the 2021-22 Nations League, La Nazionale were thumped 5-2 in Germany just a few days later, leaving a bitter taste still lingering almost three years on.
Having previously wrapped up first place in their group with a ruthless 7-0 demolition of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Germans then played out a low-key 1-1 draw in their final fixture against Hungary.
Unbeaten in six matches since losing to eventual winners Spain at their home European Championship finals, Julian Nagelsmann‘s side finished with four wins and two draws, streaking clear of nearest challengers the Netherlands.
Germany are averaging three goals per game in this Nations League campaign, so Nagelsmann now comes into his 20th match as Nationalelf coach with a squad full of confidence.
Present in the knockout phase for the very first time – they failed to reach the finals on each of their first three attempts – the Germans are keen to claim a rare piece of missing silverware, before mounting an assault on next year’s World Cup.
After trying their luck in Lombardy, the second leg of this tie will take place in Dortmund on Sunday evening, with the overall winner going on to meet either Denmark or Portugal in the semi-finals.
Despite suffering a long list of injuries, following on from the post-Euros retirement of several key men, Germany have been among the continent’s most impressive teams this season and now intend to continue in that vein.
Team News
After switching to a three-man defence following Italy’s weak showing at Euro 2024, Luciano Spalletti has become reliant on his wing-backs, so the ex-Napoli boss will rue the absence of injured Inter Milan wide man Federico Dimarco.
Plagued by fitness problems this season, Andrea Cambiaso – who can fill in on either flank – is also a doubt, despite being called up. Left-side specialists Destiny Udogie and Matteo Ruggeri should vie to replace Dimarco.
In addition to Ruggeri, Torino’s Cesare Casadei could earn his first senior cap, having been a regular in the Granata’s midfield since switching from Chelsea. Manuel Locatelli of Juventus has been left out.
Spalletti may be reluctant to start two strikers against such strong opposition, but Matteo Retegui and Moise Kean are enjoying their best Serie A campaigns to date, while Giacomo Raspadori has recently been back in favour at title contenders Napoli.
Instead, either Nicolo Barella or Davide Frattesi – both playing at their club’s home ground – could feature in an advanced midfield role.
Meanwhile, Julian Nagelsmann has many more absences to deal with: Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Marc-Andre Ter Stegen and Bayer Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz are all sidelined.
Therefore, Leon Goretzka is back in Germany’s squad for the first time since November 2023, Karim Adeyemi is also rewarded for his improved form, while Nadiem Amiri of Bundesliga surprise package Mainz ends a four-year hiatus from the national team.
Inter defender Yann Bisseck, who will be on familiar turf at San Siro, has been handed his first senior call-up; at the other end of the spectrum, captain Joshua Kimmich is set to win his 98th cap.
Bisseck is one of only two uncapped players, along with Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega – the latter will battle with Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nubel to start between the posts.
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Rovella, Tonali, Udogie; Barella; Retegui
Germany possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Andrich, Gross; Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst
We say: Italy 2-1 Germany
Facing a slightly weakened Germany squad, Italy can gain a precious first-leg advantage, as they now have several goal threats to call upon.
The Azzurri are always tougher to beat on home turf, but the tie will be far from over before Sunday’s second leg.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
