Dissecting Manchester United’s nightmare season: Heartbreak in Europe and nowhere in the league

Where exactly do Manchester United go from here, after their worst season in more than half a century?

It has been a case of ‘Bilbao or bust’ for months, but Wednesday night’s 1-0 defeat in the Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur confirmed that Ruben Amorim’s side will not play Champions League football next season.

Not only that, but for only the second time in 35 years, United will not play in Europe at all — at a significant financial hit to a club already reeling from a year of cost-cutting under minority owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe.

Defeat brings concerns over Amorim’s suitability, questions over the future of captain Bruno Fernandes and other players, and only makes the summer transfer window harder to navigate.

What are the implications of this Europa League final defeat now, next season and in the future? Laurie Whitwell and Mark Critchley have their say…

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What’s the impact of Manchester United losing the Europa League final?

Laurie Whitwell: It’s big. It deprives United of any hope of European football, let alone Champions League football, which winning the competition would have provided. The financial boost of Champions League qualification is significant, it would have totally transformed what United can do in the transfer window, which is going to be crucial. When it’s a new manager with a new system, he needs support in the market and having Champions League football would have really helped that financially, but also in terms of attracting players who want the stage of elite European football.

Face-to-face talks happened with Liam Delap on Monday, while personal terms for Matheus Cunha are at an advanced stage. What does this mean for those proposed deals?

Mark Critchley: Clearly, financially, it’s huge. United would’ve stood to earn at least £80m ($107.3m)…

Whitwell: You’re bringing the facts here, Critch…

Critchley: Apparently I’m the numbers guy, right? It’s quite worrying but somehow I’ve become the numbers guy. But yeah, it would’ve been a minimum £80m — that’s winning the Europa League (prize money) and qualifying for the Champions League (broadcasting income and gate receipts).

They would have got that even if they crashed out of the 36-team league phase which, let’s face it, we’d probably expect them to. But there would’ve been even more on offer if they had gone further. A realistic Champions League campaign for United next season probably brings in between £80-100m. That’s gone.

Then you’ve also got a £10m deduction from the £90m-a-year Adidas deal, which will now come into effect next season for the first time.

You say about attracting players — the thing is with United, that’s never really been a problem because they’ve kept on spending like a Champions League club even when they’re not in the Champions League. They’ve paid Champions League-level transfer fees and Champions League-level wages to players who’ve then not qualified for the Champions League. Sooner or later, that’s going to catch up with you.

They aren’t Manchester City, qualifying every single season. They aren’t Barcelona, they aren’t Real Madrid. A reckoning has always needed to come at some point and I think there have been signs that the club’s starting to recognise that needs to happen, and it has started cutting its cloth accordingly. But failing to reach the Champions League once again makes building back towards that level even more difficult.

Can United take anything from this season?

Whitwell: Those memories from the Lyon game? The win at the Etihad? Nothing really tangible. Amorim didn’t want to join mid-season but the fact he did so at least has given time for him to figure out more on this squad, and them on him. But you do wonder how much damage to his credibility has been done by this awful sequence of results.

There is still some money to play for also. United can still finish between 14th and 17th and each place is worth a certain amount. You’re gonna tell me the exact amount, aren’t you…

Critchley: I think it’s about £3.1m, Laurie.

Whitwell: Fantastic. That is significant when you look at the Adidas deal getting hit by £10m, the fact that they’re going on a post-season tour, which is rumoured to bring in about £8m. That’s three places in the Premier League and it’s wiped out if you fall three places. And I do wonder now, after losing the Europa League final in that way, are the players really going to be totally committed to going on this post-season tour to Asia? Are there going to be a few tweaks and niggles picked up before they board that flight?

Critchley: I mean, maybe the only positive is that it could’ve been worse. If they lose on Sunday and finish on 39 points, that would have been enough to see them relegated in three previous Premier League seasons, and it’s not like we haven’t talked about that as a possibility this season.

But look, we’ve covered the money angle there, prize money per place and all that — that’s not why we watch football, it’s not what keeps fans interested. It’s the idea of your team making progress and moving towards being successful at some point in future. That would’ve just about still been there if United had won the Europa League. It isn’t now.

Why have they had such an awful season?

Whitwell: A combination of factors. I think you’ve got a perfect storm of sticking with the manager that you really wanted to replace, undermining his authority.

Then you try to back him in the transfer market with the signings you made, but equally that inherent level of uncertainty remained throughout the start of the season. There was no discernible improvement in the team. United were still in the lower regions of the table by the time Erik ten Hag was dismissed, but also still within touching distance of the Champions League places, four points off.

At that point, it didn’t necessarily feel like it was going to unravel into this season of absolute desperation, certainly in the Premier League.

But then you’ve also decided to go for a head coach from another country that hasn’t managed in the Premier League before, who is still learning about the league and his players, as he’s admitted to, in terms of picking Casemiro’s exact role. And there’s the new system. You’ve got players that are adjusting to different requirements and that is inevitably going to take time. United didn’t really have time.

The quality of the squad is still clearly an issue. The fact that they can’t score goals, it’s been desperate in front of goal this season — on course for a record low number of goals in the Premier League. Add in the ownership — the fact that Sir Jim Ratcliffe has been so involved, another round of redundancies, the mood around Carrington and Old Trafford, how that creeps into what the players are feeling on the pitch. I think you’ve got a multitude of factors that have fed into this being a really bad season.

Critchley: But do you not think it has been a bit of a write-off from the start? I completely agree about the Ten Hag decision. That was the first domino that fell, setting everything else into motion, leaving the mess that this season has been.

United didn’t just go into the season uncertain about the manager, they ended last season uncertain about him too, at exactly the time when you would want to be putting plans in place for this current campaign. I feel like the Ten Hag decision was the original sin of this season and that it has coloured everything since.

Whitwell: It could be. I would still say I didn’t think it would be this bad, even sticking with Ten Hag. If you stick with Ten Hag, you might as well stick with him throughout the whole season because this turmoil that they’re experiencing now is tarnishing Amorim. You’ve got a guy here who arrived with a big reputation and has carried himself very impressively. Clearly, the results haven’t been there, some of the performances may have picked up more recently, but the extent to which his status has taken a hit by being here in this difficult situation, I think that is a big question mark going into the summer.

Critchley: Yeah, absolutely. I guess now, on one level, this is suddenly a bit like the end of last season. United are going into another summer backing a manager who will be under pressure to get results from the start. That’s a worrying parallel.

Is the main problem the squad, the coach, or something else?

Critchley: This idea that there’s one main problem and if United just fix that then everything will be sorted — that’s been part of the issue of the last 12 years.

You can always say the squad isn’t good enough, or the manager needs changing, or there are issues behind the scenes at executive level, to say nothing of the Glazers’ ownership and the mistakes Ratcliffe has made. It’s been all of those things at one point or another since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

There is an obvious issue right now in that you have a coach trying to implement a system on a squad that needs to be moulded to it. But it’s a convergence of problems, it always has been, so it’s difficult to pinpoint just one.

Whitwell: For sure. I think ultimately the quality of the squad isn’t good enough. We’re talking about a team that clearly should not be finishing between 14th and 17th but equally do you look at them and think, ‘Actually they should be in fifth or sixth’? No, I don’t — there’s not enough goals and that has been the result of several seasons of picking the wrong players, taking a chance on players that haven’t so far worked out.

Maybe that is something we just need to give time to because they’re young players across the squad. Equally, you’re thinking that at this age there needs to be more actually — more decisiveness, a more clinical edge, and that isn’t there at the moment.

Ultimately, you can have all this background trauma going on but it’s 11 players on the pitch against another 11 players. So they have to take responsibility each time. They could produce a one-off result, but that sustained success requires deeper alignment and quality at all levels.

Clearly there’s a wider picture — the ownership, having the right people in place to make these decisions, having everybody in the right roles. There’s a lot of change going on and I do wonder if that ultimately is going to be a successful change or whether it’s going to undermine things for United.

How quickly can it be turned around?

Critchley: Everyone talks about how much money United have wasted over the last 12 years. They’ve also wasted their other really valuable resource: time. The longer that you go without meeting expectations, the more impatient everyone gets.

What concerns me is that you have people saying, ‘Amorim at least needs a summer’. Let’s be honest, he probably needs two or three. It’s a big hole that he’s trying to dig the club out of and I don’t know if there’s that level of patience out there — whether it’s the fans, whether it’s us in the media, maybe even within the club itself.

I’m not saying we’re at that point yet — far from it — and the match-going fans in particular have been supportive up until this point. I’m just trying to make the same point Amorim kept making himself when he arrived. There is going to be a lot of pain before United are competing again, and I think the question has always been how much of a pain threshold this club ultimately has.

Whitwell: You certainly see other teams make big strides in a season — think back to Leicester winning the Premier League having fought relegation the previous season; Nottingham Forest this season, same kind of thing. But obviously with Leicester it was fleeting — they dipped down and were relegated ultimately, then they’ve come back up but are going to get relegated again. Forest, they’ve obviously had a little bit of a dip. Are they going to be able to sustain it?

These rapid changes can happen but long-lasting success will take time. You have to have players in there that have got that experience of winning, that can then pass that down to the new players that are coming in, the new signings enter an environment where they feel they’re at an elite club and an elite team. That doesn’t feel like it’s the case with United at the moment, and so that will take time.

What are the reasons for hope?

Whitwell: You could look at the ages of a lot of the players and think, given time, they could work out. I just wonder how much scarring, how much bruising takes place when they’re getting beaten frequently.

We’ll see what happens with Kobbie Mainoo and Alejandro Garnacho this summer, but they are obviously two young players that were full of hope, scoring the goals that won United the FA Cup and producing several good performances besides that. Even Rasmus Hojlund last season was showing signs of potentially being a good striker. He’s obviously not sustained that but, again, he’s a young player that could improve. Patrick Dorgu, Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro — you’ve got a lot of players that are of an age that potentially could do well.

The big question mark is whether they are inherently that good and whether they actually can flourish in an environment like this.

Critchley: I agree. It gets overlooked just how young the squad actually is — especially how young it will be next season. Think of the players out of contract — Victor Lindelof, Christian Eriksen, Jonny Evans and Tom Heaton — four over-30s. The only players left over 30 will be Fernandes, Maguire and Casemiro. The rest of the squad is either peak age or among the group you just mentioned — 24 and under. Joshua Zirkzee and Manuel Ugarte will be in that category too next season.

There is a real nucleus of young players who should improve. You hope they’ll learn from the experiences of this season and improve. The question is whether they’ll actually be better players at this club, or whether the scar tissue you mention means we’ll only see that elsewhere.

What are the biggest concerns?

Critchley: I mentioned before about patience. That’s my main one. My other is a bit of a contradiction to that, I guess, but the ultimate question is whether this direction Amorim wants to go in is the right one. He’s very clear on that direction and he’s not moving from it. And maybe United have needed somebody to be that stick-in-the-mud and say, “No, we’re doing it this way — my way.”

The concern I have is that if you go down this path with this back-three system and it’s not the right one, it’s a long way back. Nobody can absolutely guarantee that this is going to work at the highest level. Generally speaking, dominant teams in European football over the past decade haven’t played this way.

There’s also probably not been a worse time in United’s last 12 years to try and attempt such a radical shift and do the squad rebuild it requires — we know the finances aren’t in great shape, the club’s at its lowest ebb in 51 years, no European football. It’s an extremely difficult environment to try and pull off a three-point turn like this.

That doesn’t mean it can’t work, there are just no guarantees. And if we’re being brutally honest, there has been no evidence that it will bring results over the past seven months either.

Whitwell: I think there are several strands to pull out from that. As you say, Amorim has a very clear methodology, clear way of doing things. He’s also made noises about not being here. “The sack can be liberating for a coach,” he said at one point. Will he look at this picture in the summer and have his own views on whether to continue? In the San Mames after the game, he said he would not quit but that’s a question that I have.

Because of the money, right? Will he actually be able to revamp this squad to a degree that he’s satisfied with, as he sees fit? United can probably spend a bit of money, but really they have to sell to buy first. You’ve got players like Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Antony out on loan — certainly with Sancho and Rashford, they’re on big wages.

To actually then sell these players, you’re going to have to come to an agreement with them over the length of the rest of their contract. That is a very difficult, complex negotiation to have and that will ultimately hit the bottom line. So can that actually be put into United making signings?

Then, broader than that, Ratcliffe has come in with a strong mandate for change. He’s certainly got involved himself, he’s done interviews where he’s talking about very detailed aspects of the club, but is that the right way to go about things? Should it be that the football executives are actually allowed to do their work? Is Ratcliffe’s influence going over the mark, or is that what you want from an owner, someone who is engaged?

Then there’s his relationship with the Glazers. I think that’s a really interesting dynamic between them — this is the ownership of Manchester United, but is that the best thing to produce a successful football club?

Should United ‘cash in’ on Fernandes or Garnacho?

Critchley: I imagine we’re in agreement that Bruno has to stay. I say that even with a nagging voice in my head that tells me smart football clubs don’t pass up mega-money offers for players over 30.

This is almost the exception to prove that rule, though: United have recruited so poorly that a player other clubs might cash in on at this point is too important to let go.

Maybe if you receive a Saudi Pro League offer that’s too good to refuse, you do it, but I don’t know. I guess there was a parallel situation with Mohamed Salah at Liverpool at one point. Fernandes is that level of importance.

Whitwell: Bruno’s response in the aftermath of the Europa League final was very intriguing, almost opening the door to a departure. He said similar last summer then signed a new contract, but the Al Hilal offer is genuine and astronomical money, so maybe after this disappointment he decides now is the time and United would accept a big fee. Garnacho also made noises about leaving, he clearly was massively unhappy at getting just 20 minutes in the final.

Critchley: In an ideal world, you’d keep Garnacho. And if he was to stay, I’d be confident he improves next year. United’s new world is far from an ‘ideal’ one, though. And while I can understand his frustration post-match, I can see why those comments have upset some fans too.

Give us three players they should build around and your three priority positions to strengthen this summer…

Whitwell: Three players to build around… let’s say Leny Yoro.

Critchley: Agreed.

Whitwell: Bruno Fernandes…

Critchley: Agreed. Will we go three for three…

Whitwell: Have you got one in mind?

Critchley: Amad?

Whitwell: Yes.

Critchley I think that all makes sense.

Whitwell: I would give an honourable mention to Mainoo. I know there are question marks around him but he’s obviously a very talented footballer and if you can build around him, then they should do. But then again, he only got on in added time in Bilbao.

Critchley: OK, but three positions to target? And given negotiations are progressing on Cunha as you reported this week, let’s say that No 10 role is covered off…

Whitwell: Striker. Maybe another striker! No, striker, wing-back, I think it’ll be a right wing-back. Dalot just can’t keep doing it by himself.

Critchley: What about Amad playing there, though? That is one reason why I picked him for the three to build around.

Whitwell: So what are you saying?

Critchley: I think it depends a lot on where you’re going to play Fernandes, where you’re going to play Amad, where you’re going to play Zirkzee, but if I’m going for three — striker, obviously. People have mentioned about a goalkeeper, I don’t know. Maybe as back-up if Altay Bayindir leaves, but your biggest problem has to be your biggest priority and that’s scoring and creating goals.

Whitwell: The other thing is midfield as well. You’re losing Eriksen. Casemiro is another year older. Mason Mount, obviously he’s back, but can you necessarily rely on him?

Critchley: Frees up Bruno to play further forward if you want, as well.

Whitwell: Yes, you need an athletic midfielder to be in one of those No 6 positions.

Critchley: I think we’re settled on striker, midfielder, maybe right wing-back then?

Whitwell: I’ll go for that.

Critchley: Yep, that’ll sort it…

Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; George Wood, Carl Recine, Lucy North/PA Images via Getty Images

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