Liverpool vs Newcastle: Predictions, talking points and the stars to watch in the Carabao Cup final

The first trophy of the English domestic season is up for grabs on Sunday when Arne Slot’s Liverpool take on Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley.

Premier League leaders Liverpool are looking to bounce back after being knocked out of the Champions League’s last 16 by Paris Saint-Germain this week, while Newcastle are going through a wee bit of a drought in terms of winning stuff. They have not lifted major silverware of any kind since June 1969 (the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup — what is today the Europa League) and their most recent domestic trophy was the 1954-55 FA Cup.

Both teams will be without key players — Trent Alexander-Arnold misses out through injury for Liverpool and Anthony Gordon is suspended for Newcastle. So, how will that impact their teams? Can Liverpool stop Alexander Isak? Can Newcastle stop Mohamed Salah? And which club does this final mean more to?

Our Liverpool reporter Gregg Evans and Newcastle writer Chris Waugh address the key talking points before Sunday’s massive game (4.30pm GMT, 12.30pm ET)…

It’s a Wembley cup final weekend — what’s the mood at your club?

Evans: The Liverpool players needed lifting after losing to Paris Saint-Germain on penalties in midweek but the preparation since then has sharpened the focus. Head coach Arne Slot believes this is the perfect rebound game for his team and the pain of Tuesday night will be replaced with joy (and a little relief) if it goes to plan today. Because of the final’s place in the calendar, winning the League Cup is the quickest route to a trophy for a manager appointed the previous summer and that message has been reinforced at different stages of the season. The sooner Slot gets his hands on a first trophy with Liverpool, the better. Apart from having problems at right-back, with both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley expected to be missing through injury, Liverpool are pumped up and ready.

Waugh: Nerves have long been shredded; Tyneside — and Tyneside-upon-Thames, aka London, their adopted home-away-from-home for the weekend — is beyond tension-filled, though that is mixed with enormous excitement. Supporters retain that eternal hope the club’s infamous 70-year wait for a domestic trophy is finally set to end, but none of them can quite comprehend how it will feel and look like if that does come to pass. There is a recognition that Liverpool are weighty favourites, yet Newcastle fans are still holding on to that dream of glory.

Who is this game more important to?

Evans: It has to be Newcastle, purely because of their long wait for any kind of major trophy. The transformation at the club in recent years post-takeover has been interesting to watch but they really need silverware to validate that progress and give their long-suffering supporters a day out to remember. It’s also a guaranteed passage back into Europe, and while qualifying for the Champions League again remains their key objective, it’s impossible to predict how the Premier League table will look at the end of the season with so many teams fighting for those coveted top-five spots and beyond, so winning this competition could be crucial.

Newcastle fans during their 1974 FA Cup final defeat to Liverpool (Evening Standard/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Waugh: I have to agree. After Newcastle and Liverpool faced each other in the 1974 FA Cup final, with the latter triumphing, the clubs were level on 11 pieces of major silverware each. In the 51 years since, Liverpool have lifted 40 more trophies — and Newcastle have claimed precisely none (unless you count the Intertoto Cup, which nobody does). That immense yearning for silverware does not diminish over time; it only grows. But, more than that, this “project” (for want of a less inane term) requires a trophy to really ensure that it continues on an upward trajectory, following a testing year off the field. For stalwarts such as Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn and Fabian Schar, this may be their best — and in some cases last — chance of winning silverware with Newcastle. They simply cannot let this opportunity pass.

Is there a rivalry developing between these squads? 

Evans: I think it would be a stretch to say that, although the games between them remain fiercely competitive.

Waugh: A rivalry would be a stretch, yeah, given that Newcastle have not beaten Liverpool since 2015 and are not yet ready to compete for the very biggest trophies in the way Slot’s side already are. There was some definite needle — which bordered upon genuine animosity — between the two coaching set-ups when Jurgen Klopp was Liverpool’s manager. Newcastle’s staff felt they were almost disrespected at times, while Liverpool grew frustrated by the tactics deployed by Eddie Howe’s side during matches (and assistant head coach Jason Tindall’s antics on the touchline). But that appears to have dissipated following Klopp’s departure at the end of last season.

What did Newcastle learn from their most recent appearance at Wembley in this final two years ago?

Waugh: That immense emotion can be a powerful motivational tool, but also energy-sapping. Howe rightly insists that, rather than try to completely shut out the emotion this time around, Newcastle need to channel it correctly. The magnitude of returning to a final for the first time in 24 years almost distracted from the match itself back in 2023, and Newcastle failed to overcome a very beatable Manchester United. But it would be wrong to suggest that intense excitement alone was to blame for Newcastle’s defeat that day. Howe, in hindsight, may have regretted some of his selection calls, while the reality was that Newcastle had no form heading into that final and were wading through their worst period of the entire season. This time around, while Newcastle are far from their ferocious best, they did at least generate some positive momentum by beating West Ham United away on Monday.

Which Liverpool player needs a big performance? 

Evans: Darwin Nunez could really do with a big moment today to make up for a disappointing season and his penalty miss in the shootout against PSG. It feels like things are going from bad to worse for him. Not only has the club’s record signing failed to score in 33 of the 39 games he has featured in this season — a shocking record for a striker — he also missed an open goal against Aston Villa last month and was then told by Slot he needed to work harder for the team. It’s difficult to see a future beyond the end of this season for Nunez at Anfield as things stand.

Darwin Nunez is under pressure to deliver (Julian Finney/Getty Images)

How big a miss is the suspended Anthony Gordon for Newcastle? 

Waugh: A significant one, no doubt, but it is not as damaging as it would have been last season, as Gordon has not been in quite the same form. He has scored seven goals and provided six assists across all competitions this season, but his overall performances have been up and down. The England international is a ‘big-game player’, however, and he would have relished the prospect of facing Jarell Quansah again, having given the 22-year-old a torrid first half on Tyneside during the 3-3 draw between these clubs in December. At least Newcastle had a fortnight to prepare for a major absence due to a suspension this time around. Gordon’s dismissal had definite parallels with Nick Pope’s in the game before the 2023 final, but it is nowhere near as consequential as that proved to be, given Martin Dubravka was also cup-tied then and third-choice goalkeeper Loris Karius was called upon to make his debut instead…

Gordon is suspended for the final (Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images)

How big a miss is the injured Trent Alexander-Arnold for Liverpool?

Evans: Huge, especially as his fellow defenders Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez are also out injured. This is the first time all season Liverpool have a genuine injury crisis at a specific position. Up to now, they have always been able to call upon an adequate alternative in times of need and it will be down to Quansah to step up and replace Alexander-Arnold. Whether Quansah can provide the same defence-splitting attacking qualities as well as the more-likely defensive solidity remains to be seen.

Who are Newcastle most concerned about? 

Waugh: Boring answer, but it has to be Mohamed Salah. He has 10 goals and eight assists in 17 appearances against Newcastle, including five and seven in eight games since Howe took charge in November 2021. With Lewis Hall out injured, Tino Livramento is set to play left-back. Being a natural right-footer should help him in trying to prevent Salah cutting inside onto his favoured left foot, but the young England international simply could not face a tougher assignment in world football right now.

Who are Liverpool most concerned about? 

Evans: Alexander Isak. It was a stroke of luck for Liverpool that he missed the recent game between these two in the Premier League because he’s a real handful. Slot said the best way to control Isak is by trying to maintain more ball possession. “That way, it’s easier to control him, although he’s definitely a threat on the counter-attack.”

Where will this game be decided?

Evans: Newcastle’s defence. If Howe can pull together another masterplan, like in the second leg of the semi-final win over Arsenal, then that could be the difference. Can they suffocate Liverpool in the same way? It’s a tough ask but not impossible.

Waugh: A left-field answer, I’ll grant you, but I’d say in the minds of Newcastle players. Howe’s team are at their relentless, high-pressing best when every one of them is mentally and physically ‘on it’. They need to be in that psychological space from kick-off today and, if they can smother Liverpool and prey on the (admittedly small) frailties PSG exposed in the two Champions League games, then that is the best chance they have of securing a famous victory.

Forget the football — who will win the singing battle in the stands?

Evans: Usually I’d say Newcastle, because they have an incredible set of supporters, particularly away from home, but I actually think Liverpool, mainly because I expect them to win the game so they will be more energised.

Waugh: Newcastle, without a doubt. Two years ago, they may have lost the game, but Newcastle supporters certainly ‘won the weekend’ (unfortunately that title does not bestow a trophy upon their club, mind…). The people at Wor Flags have been planning their Wembley displays for weeks and, as long as the hangovers have subsided after their Saturday night out in central London’s Covent Garden district, a black-and-white Geordie choir will chant their way through the match.

What’s your prediction?

Evans: Liverpool to win, 2-0.

Waugh: One each after 90 minutes; 2-1 to Newcastle after extra time. I’m not sure if I genuinely do believe this deep down, but having seen only misery at Wembley when covering Newcastle, I feel compelled to go to north-west London this time with a positive mindset.

(Top photos: Getty Images)